Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Eddington bias — where it appears

The inflation of a count at a fixed value when measurement scatter is applied to a falling distribution. More objects scatter up into a bin than down out of it, by a factor exponential in the product of the scatter and the distribution's slope, so it grows sharply where the count steepens.

Named by 4 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A sample that gets brighter with distance because the faint ones drop out. The mean absolute magnitude of a magnitude-limited sample, relative to the population it is drawn from, against distance. The population has a spread of 0.5 magnitudes about a mean of -4, and the survey stops at apparent magnitude 20. Nearby, everything is detected and the sample is unbiased. Beyond about 316228 parsecs the faint end of the distribution starts falling below the limit and the survivors are brighter than average; further out the bias deepens without limit, because eventually only the extreme tail is detectable. The horizontal line is the classical Malmquist value of 1.382 times the square of the spread, which is what the bias averages to over a magnitude-limited sample as a whole — it is a property of the sample rather than of any one object, and using it as a correction for an individual star is a common and specific mistake.

A sample brighter than the population it came from

Every survey stops at some apparent brightness. At any distance it therefore contains only the objects luminous enough to make the cut, so the average object in it is brighter than the average object in the universe — by an amount that grows with distance and that has been shortening every distance in astronomy since 1920.

starlight · Distance ladder What comes back is a ramp, not a threshold. Detection efficiency against signal-to-noise: the fraction of synthetic transits injected into real photometry that the pipeline afterwards finds. The measured curve is a gamma cumulative distribution of shape 4.65 and scale 0.98 beginning at 4.1, which is the form a survey's own injection tests are fitted with; the dashed line is the step at 7.1 that a threshold calculation assumes instead. Half the injections are recovered at 8.33, 1.2 units above the nominal threshold — the ramp is a property of the search and the cut is a separate decision, so the two need not meet anywhere in particular. The rest of the disagreement is the area between the curves. The pipeline does not reach 99 per cent efficiency until 14.9, four units above the threshold, and it recovers 45 per cent one unit above it. Over a population whose signal-to-noise falls as s^-2 — which is what a planet population looks like, because there are far more small planets than large ones — the step function counts 1.21 times as many detections as the ramp does. That factor is not an error bar. It multiplies every occurrence rate computed without it, and it is larger for the small planets than for the large ones, because the small ones live where the ramp is.

The threshold that is not a threshold

A survey's detection limit is quoted as a number — seven point one — and a pipeline does not behave that way. Half the injected signals come back at the threshold, and full efficiency arrives four units above it.

exoplanets · Detection bias The count theory predicts, and the inference it costs. The galaxy stellar mass function: galaxies per cubic megaparsec per dex of stellar mass, both axes logarithmic. Two Schechter components share a characteristic mass of 10^10.66 M☉ — one of slope -0.35 carrying the quenched galaxies at the knee, one of slope -1.47 carrying the star-forming ones below it — and the dashed line is the single component a luminosity function is usually fitted with. Integrated over the range drawn it gives 0.0487 galaxies per cubic megaparsec holding 2.22·10⁸ solar masses of stars, of which 51 per cent sits above the knee. This function is not measured. What is measured is a luminosity function; turning one into the other needs a mass-to-light ratio for every galaxy in the sample, and that ratio is not a constant — it runs by a factor of about five from the bluest galaxies to the reddest, so the conversion moves the red end of the distribution further than the blue end and changes the SHAPE rather than the units. A stellar mass function is a luminosity function plus a stellar population model, and the second half is where its disagreements live.

The count theory predicts, and the inference it costs

A luminosity function is measured. A stellar mass function is inferred, one galaxy at a time, through a ratio that runs by a factor of six from the bluest galaxies to the reddest — so the conversion changes the shape and not merely the units.

galaxies · Luminosity function Amplitudes measured near the noise, against the amplitudes that were there. A simulated survey of 6000 stars, each with one planet whose true radial-velocity semi-amplitude K is drawn from a population rising towards small amplitudes (dN/d ln K ∝ K^−0.6, from 0.2 to 20 m/s), each measured with an amplitude uncertainty of 0.6 m/s; 1500 are drawn. Across: the true amplitude; up: the amplitude fitted at the planet's period; both logarithmic. The dashed diagonal is a perfect measurement; the horizontal line is the detection threshold, 4 times the uncertainty. Points above it are the detections (filled). Well above the threshold they sit on the diagonal; near it they sit above it — the detections within one unit of the threshold have measured amplitudes 1.33 times their true ones on average — and below it the measured amplitudes stop falling at all, because an amplitude is a length and noise alone gives it about 0.75 m/s.

A prior the survey measures through its own noise

Whether a weak periodic signal is a planet depends on how large planets are expected to be, and the best source for that expectation is the population the surveys themselves have measured. But the population's small end is built from the marginal detections whose reality depends on the prior. Breaking the circle means measuring the population and the planets together, with the noise and the threshold written into the model — and doing it that way changes the answers by factors of two where they matter most.

starlight · Periodograms

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

CompletenessLuminosity functionOccurrence rateSelection effectBayes factorDetection limitDetection thresholdFaint end slopeFlux-limited sampleHierarchical modelInitial mass functionInjection recovery

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