Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Measurement error — where it appears

The difference between a measured value and the true one, from random noise and from systematic biases in the instrument or the method. Its distribution, not just its size, decides how a sample of measurements can be turned into an answer.

Named by 3 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A gap 1 per cent deep that became 63. The distribution of planet radii, drawn three ways: the underlying distribution with a gap in it, the same distribution convolved with a 25 per cent stellar radius error, and convolved with a 5 per cent one. Every planet radius is the transit depth's square root multiplied by a stellar radius, so an error in the star is an error in the planet, and a population of planets inherits the population of stellar errors as a smearing. The gap is 1 per cent deep at the old precision and 63 at the new one, and its centre does not move — a symmetric smearing hides a feature without displacing it. That is what happened when parallaxes for a hundred thousand planet hosts arrived: no new planets were observed, and a feature that had been marginal became unambiguous.

A planet radius is a stellar radius

A transit measures a ratio and nothing else. Every planet radius ever published is that ratio multiplied by a stellar radius that came from somewhere entirely different, so a population of planets inherits the errors of a population of stars — and when the stars were measured better, a feature nobody could see became unmistakable.

exoplanets · Planet composition A nearly aligned population, seen in projection and in three dimensions. 60,000 transiting systems whose stars are tilted from their planets' orbits by a small random amount: each of the tilt's two components is Gaussian with a width of 5°, and its direction around the orbit normal is random. Orange: the true obliquity ψ, which is never negative and is almost never near zero — its median is 5.9°, because a tilt with two components is small only when both of them are small at once. Blue: the projected angle λ the line profile measures, which is symmetric about zero and peaked there. The projected angles look better aligned than the true ones, and they are not hiding anything: for small tilts λ is one component of a two-component tilt, so the rms true angle, 7.04°, is √2 times the rms projected angle, 5.01°, with no knowledge of any star's inclination.

A spread the projection does not hide

A single projected spin–orbit angle says little about the true one, because the star's tilt is unknown. A population of nearly aligned systems is different: for small tilts the projected angle is one component of a two-component vector, so the rms true obliquity is exactly √2 times the rms projected angle — no star's inclination needed.

exoplanets · Spin–orbit alignment A second peak, seen through three precisions. The distribution of measured core fractions for a population in which 90 per cent of planets sit at their stars' prediction (0.32, with an intrinsic scatter of 0.03) and 10 per cent at 0.65 (scatter 0.08), each planet compared with its own star, observed with measurement errors of 0.04, 0.08, 0.15 in core fraction. At 0.04 the dense group is a separate hump; at 0.08 it is a shoulder; at 0.15 it has become a long upper tail on a single peak, indistinguishable by eye from a population that is simply broad. The current measurements sit between the second and third curves.

A second peak the errors have to let through

Whether the densest small planets are a population of their own or the far edge of the ordinary one is not a question about any single planet. It is a question about the shape of a histogram seen through measurement errors as wide as the gap it is looking for, and the number of planets it needs rises fifteen-fold for every factor of three in lost precision — which puts the answer a few dozen planets beyond the samples that first suggested it.

exoplanets · Planet composition

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Mixture modelConvolutionCore mass fractionGiant impactsHot jupiterLikelihood ratioOccurrence rateParallaxPhotoevaporationPlanet compositionPopulation inferencePopulation statistics

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