Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Generator

The chirp-signal generator

GW150914: 33 Hz to 250 Hz in 0.22 seconds
GW150914: 33 Hz to 250 Hz in 0.22 seconds. The strain of GW150914 — two black holes — through the last 0.22 seconds before merger, computed from the quadrupole sweep at the chirp mass its fit returned, 28.716 solar masses, and drawn at the luminosity distance it returned, 440 megaparsecs. Two things rise together and neither is free to rise on its own: the frequency goes from 33 Hz to 250 Hz, and the envelope — the outer curve — grows by a factor of 3.9, because the amplitude goes as f^2/3 and nothing else in it changes over so short a span. The vertical axis is in units of 10⁻²¹, so the peak here is a fractional length change of about 2.9·10⁻²¹: over the four kilometres of an interferometer arm that is 1.2·10⁻¹⁷ metres, a thousandth of the width of a proton. The chirp mass is not fitted to the amplitude at all — it comes from the spacing of these zero crossings, which is why it is the best-determined number in the whole event and why the distance, which does come from the amplitude, is the worst.

The strain of GW150914 — two black holes — through the last 0.22 seconds before merger, computed from the quadrupole sweep at the chirp mass its fit returned, 28.716 solar masses, and drawn at the luminosity distance it returned, 440 megaparsecs. Two things rise together and neither is free to rise on its own: the frequency goes from 33 Hz to 250 Hz, and the envelope — the outer curve — grows by a factor of 3.9, because the amplitude goes as f^2/3 and nothing else in it changes over so short a span. The vertical axis is in units of 10⁻²¹, so the peak here is a fractional length change of about 2.9·10⁻²¹: over the four kilometres of an interferometer arm that is 1.2·10⁻¹⁷ metres, a thousandth of the width of a proton. The chirp mass is not fitted to the amplitude at all — it comes from the *spacing of these zero crossings*, which is why it is the best-determined number in the whole event and why the distance, which does come from the amplitude, is the worst.

6 essays call chirp-signal. The drawing above is what it returns with no arguments at all; every call below passes it something, because a placement that passes nothing draws whichever member of the family the generator happens to default to rather than the one its essay argues about.

Where it is called

Every figure listed here is the same construction drawn at different numbers, so a correction to one is a correction to all of them.

GW150914: 33 Hz to 250 Hz in 0.22 seconds. The strain of GW150914 — two black holes — through the last 0.22 seconds before merger, computed from the quadrupole sweep at the chirp mass its fit returned, 28.716 solar masses, and drawn at the luminosity distance it returned, 440 megaparsecs. Two things rise together and neither is free to rise on its own: the frequency goes from 33 Hz to 250 Hz, and the envelope — the outer curve — grows by a factor of 3.9, because the amplitude goes as f^2/3 and nothing else in it changes over so short a span. The vertical axis is in units of 10⁻²¹, so the peak here is a fractional length change of about 2.9·10⁻²¹: over the four kilometres of an interferometer arm that is 1.2·10⁻¹⁷ metres, a thousandth of the width of a proton. The chirp mass is not fitted to the amplitude at all — it comes from the spacing of these zero crossings, which is why it is the best-determined number in the whole event and why the distance, which does come from the amplitude, is the worst. Gravitation

A distance with no ladder under it

The frequency sweep of an inspiral fixes the chirp mass with no distance in it, and the amplitude then gives the luminosity distance directly, because one expression fixes both. That is a distance measured with nothing calibrated beneath it — and its error budget is one angle.

 Nothing visible in any pulsar, and a quadrupole in the angle between them. Above: 4 millisecond pulsars' timing residuals over 15 years, at the few hundred nanoseconds a good one reaches. Each wanders, and none of them shows anything a reader could call a signal; a gravitational-wave background of amplitude 2.4·10⁻¹⁵ at one cycle per year contributes a common part to all of them that is smaller than each pulsar's own red noise. Below: the correlation between pairs, against the angle on the sky between them. 2211 pairs out of 67 pulsars, binned into 15 angles, against three curves with no free parameters between them. A quadrupolar background gives the Hellings–Downs shape — positive for nearby pulsars, negative near 83°, and back up to exactly half its zero-separation value at 180° because a background looks the same in opposite directions. An error in the observatory clock would give a flat line, because it shifts every pulsar identically. An error in the solar-system ephemeris would give a cosine, because it moves the barycentre in one direction. The drawn points prefer the quadrupole over the flat line by Δχ² = 358. That is the detection: not a waveform, not an event, not a moment — a shape in an angle, accumulated over fifteen years, on data taken for another purpose entirely. Gravitation

A detector the size of the galaxy

At a nanohertz no instrument can be built, so the clocks already in the sky are used instead. The signal is in no single pulsar's data — it is in the correlation between pairs as a function of the angle between them, and that curve has no free parameters at all.

 One measured number, and every pair of masses that produces it. The plane of the two component masses of an inspiralling binary, with three curves of constant chirp mass across it. The middle one is GW150914's value of 28.7 solar masses, and the chirp mass recovered from the coordinates of the drawn curve varies along its whole length by 7.4e-14 per cent — which is the point: every binary on that line radiates the same frequency sweep at leading order, so the early inspiral cannot tell them apart. Two of them are marked. An equal pair of 33.0 and 33.0 solar masses and a lopsided pair of 63.6 and 18.4 sit on the same contour, and their total masses differ by a factor of 1.24. What separates them is the mass ratio, which enters the phasing only at the first post-Newtonian order, suppressed by the square of the orbital speed in units of the speed of light — small through the hundreds of cycles that carry most of the signal, and appreciable only in the last few, where that speed approaches a third of c. So the chirp mass is a measurement and the individual masses are an inference from the end of the signal, which is exactly the part a detector's high-frequency noise eats first. Gravitation

One number where two masses were

The hundreds of orbits an inspiralling binary completes inside a detector's band depend on its two masses only through one combination of them. Every pair on that contour radiates an identical sweep, so the early signal — which carries nearly all the signal-to-noise — cannot say which pair it was.

 Every pair arrives circular. Eccentricity against gravitational-wave frequency for four binaries of 30 and 30 solar masses, each starting at 0.2 astronomical units with an eccentricity of 0.3, 0.7, 0.9, 0.99. Both axes are logarithmic and the tracks run left to right as the orbit shrinks. The curves are Peters' closed solution a(e), and they are checked against Peters' differential equation at three eccentricities on each track rather than against the integral they came from. The ordering is preserved — a pair that starts rounder stays rounder — but by the time the orbit is radiating at 10 hertz, where a ground-based detector begins to hear it, the four eccentricities are 8.8·10⁻⁸, 5.6·10⁻⁷, 3.6·10⁻⁶, 1.5·10⁻⁴. All four are far below anything a detector could measure. That is the figure's whole content and it is a strong statement: radiation reaction removes angular momentum faster, relative to energy, than a circular orbit would need, so eccentricity is destroyed on the way in. A binary observed to be eccentric in band therefore cannot have spent long shrinking quietly, and must have been put on that orbit recently — by a third body, or in the crowded centre of a cluster. The figure assumes the two bodies are points and nothing else acts on them, which is exactly the assumption an eccentric detection would refute. Gravitation

Every pair arrives circular

Gravitational radiation drains a binary's energy and its angular momentum at rates that do not keep step, and the mismatch destroys eccentricity far faster than it shrinks the orbit. A pair that starts at 0.99 and spirals in from a fifth of an astronomical unit is round to better than a part in a hundred million by the time a detector can hear it.

 The last parsec, priced in stars. The two timescales that shrink a pair of 10⁸-solar-mass black holes at the centre of a merged galaxy, against their separation in parsecs, both axes logarithmic, for a stellar velocity dispersion of 200 km/s and a central density of 500 solar masses per cubic parsec. Ejecting stars hardens the binary at a rate proportional to the separation, so that timescale grows as the orbit shrinks; gravitational radiation goes as the fourth power of the separation, so its timescale collapses. Neither alone finishes the job and the crossing of the two is where the answer is set. With the loss cone kept full, the crossing is at 2.9e-2 parsecs and the total is 4.2·10⁸ years, inside a Hubble time. With the supply of low-angular-momentum orbits emptied by a factor of 100 — which is what happens in a smooth spherical nucleus, because the stars that could interact have already been thrown out and two-body relaxation refills the orbits far too slowly — the crossing moves outward to 7.3e-2 parsecs and the total becomes 1.7·10¹⁰ years. That is the final-parsec problem, and it is not a problem about gravity: it is a problem about supply. Real nuclei are not spherical, and the figure cannot show what a triaxial potential does, which is to keep feeding the binary orbits it has not already used. Galaxies

The last parsec, and the stars that are not there

Two galaxies merge and their central black holes sink towards each other, and then stop. From about a parsec apart, friction no longer works and gravitational radiation is not yet strong enough — and the only mechanism in between throws away the stars it depends on faster than they can be replaced.

 One amplitude, and every point on this curve fits it. The set of distances and inclinations that produce the same measured amplitude in one detector. A binary seen face-on radiates most strongly along its spin axis, so it can be twice as far away as an edge-on binary and still arrive with the same strain — the curve is (1 + cos²ι)/2 and the factor between its ends is exactly two. Nothing in a single detector's data distinguishes the two ends. What makes this worse rather than merely awkward is that the prior pulls the other way: an isotropically oriented population has half its members beyond 60 degrees, so most binaries really are closer to edge-on, and a posterior that combines a flat likelihood along this curve with that prior returns a distance biased low with an error bar that understates the range. The whole business of standard-siren cosmology is the business of cutting across this curve. Gravitation

A distance tangled with an angle

A gravitational wave carries its own distance, with no ladder underneath it and nothing to calibrate. What it also carries, inseparably, is the orientation of the orbit that made it — and one detector cannot tell a nearby binary seen edge-on from one twice as far away seen face-on.

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