Generator

The expansion-history generator

Four expansion histories that agree exactly today

Four expansion histories that agree exactly today. The scale factor against time, with the present at zero and every model normalised to a = 1 and an expansion rate of 67.36 km/s/Mpc there. That normalisation is the figure: four universes that are indistinguishable from a measurement made now, separated entirely by what is behind and ahead of them. Each curve is integrated from da/dt = aH₀E(a) rather than from its own closed form, so the four are compared through one routine. The age each implies is where its curve meets zero: empty (Ω = 0) 14.52 Gyr, matter only (Ω = 1) 9.68 Gyr, ΛCDM (Planck 2018) 13.80 Gyr, closed (Ω = 2) 8.29 Gyr. The empty universe's 14.52 Gyr is the Hubble time 1/H₀ exactly, which is what makes it the natural thing to measure an acceleration against. The closed model turns over and is stopped at its turnaround.

The scale factor against time, with the present at zero and every model normalised to a = 1 and an expansion rate of 67.36 km/s/Mpc there. That normalisation is the figure: four universes that are indistinguishable from a measurement made now, separated entirely by what is behind and ahead of them. Each curve is integrated from da/dt = aH₀E(a) rather than from its own closed form, so the four are compared through one routine. The age each implies is where its curve meets zero: empty (Ω = 0) 14.52 Gyr, matter only (Ω = 1) 9.68 Gyr, ΛCDM (Planck 2018) 13.80 Gyr, closed (Ω = 2) 8.29 Gyr. The empty universe's 14.52 Gyr is the Hubble time 1/H₀ exactly, which is what makes it the natural thing to measure an acceleration against. The closed model turns over and is stopped at its turnaround.

24 essays call expansion-history. The drawing above is what it returns with no arguments at all; every call below passes it something, because a placement that passes nothing draws whichever member of the family the generator happens to default to rather than the one its essay argues about.

Where it is called

Every figure listed here is the same construction drawn at different numbers, so a correction to one is a correction to all of them.

The shift that is not a Doppler shift

Every galaxy beyond the Local Group has its lines shifted to the red, by an amount proportional to its distance. Read as a velocity that looks like a confession that everything is fleeing from here; read as a change of scale it says the opposite, because a uniform expansion produces exactly the same law measured from any galaxy in it.

Four expansion histories that agree exactly today. The scale factor against time, with the present at zero and every model normalised to a = 1 and an expansion rate of 67.36 km/s/Mpc there. That normalisation is the figure: four universes that are indistinguishable from a measurement made now, separated entirely by what is behind and ahead of them. Each curve is integrated from da/dt = aH₀E(a) rather than from its own closed form, so the four are compared through one routine. The age each implies is where its curve meets zero: empty (Ω = 0) 14.52 Gyr, matter only (Ω = 1) 9.68 Gyr, ΛCDM (Planck 2018) 13.80 Gyr, closed (Ω = 2) 8.29 Gyr. The empty universe's 14.52 Gyr is the Hubble time 1/H₀ exactly, which is what makes it the natural thing to measure an acceleration against. The closed model turns over and is stopped at its turnaround.

One number that is an age, a size and a density

The slope of the velocity–distance relation has units of inverse time, so it can be read as an age, multiplied by c to give a length, or squared to give a density. All three readings are natural, all three are quoted, and not one of them is the quantity it appears to be.

Distance modulus against redshift, for three universes. The distance modulus μ = 5 log₁₀(D_L/10 pc) against redshift for three universes, all with H₀ = 67.36 km/s/Mpc, with 60 model supernovae drawn from the ΛCDM curve with 0.15 magnitudes of scatter. The point of the figure is how little difference there is: across two decades of redshift the three curves stay within a few tenths of a magnitude, and at z = 0.5 the accelerating and decelerating cases differ by 0.387 mag. A cosmology is not read off this plot. It is read off the residual, which is the next figure.

An expansion that was supposed to be slowing

Gravity is attractive, so an expanding universe full of matter must be decelerating, and the only question was by how much. Two teams set out to measure the deceleration and both found a quarter of a magnitude of extra faintness at redshift half — which is the wrong sign.

$The same universe, four times, as a fraction of itself. Each bar is the fractional contribution of the four components to the total density at one epoch, computed from the Planck 2018 parameters by scaling each component from today: radiation as (1+z)⁴, both kinds of matter as (1+z)³, and Λ as a constant. The familiar figure — five per cent baryons, twenty-six dark matter, sixty-nine dark energy — is the top bar and only the top bar. At recombination the same universe is three-quarters dark matter and Λ is one part in ten million; before matter–radiation equality it is mostly radiation. A pie chart of the contents of the universe is therefore a statement about a moment, and the moment is the one it happens to be drawn in.$ Cosmology

A budget whose familiar part is five per cent

Five per cent ordinary matter, twenty-six per cent dark matter, sixty-nine per cent dark energy. The figures are quoted everywhere and each one comes from a different measurement, the denominator they are fractions of is itself built out of the expansion rate, and the whole chart is a statement about one instant that was a different chart at every earlier time.

Three horizons, and a light cone that bulges. Cosmic time upwards, comoving distance sideways, for the Planck 2018 cosmology. Galaxies sit still in these coordinates, so their worldlines are the vertical grey lines: comoving distance is defined to take the expansion out. The solid inner curve is the past light cone — the set of events whose light reaches here and now — and it reaches out to the particle horizon at 46.1 billion light years, which is the diagram's central number and the one that sounds impossible. The universe is 13.80 billion years old and light has travelled for 13.80 billion years, and yet the material that emitted the oldest light is now 46 billion light years away. Nothing has outrun light: the comoving distance covered is ∫c dt/a, and dividing by a scale factor that was small early on makes the integral three times ct. The dashed curve is the Hubble sphere, where the recession speed equals c, at 14.5 Gly today — and the light cone lies outside it for most of its length, which is exactly why a galaxy can be observed while receding faster than light. The outer dot-dash curve is the event horizon, at 16.7 Gly: a signal sent from here today never reaches anything beyond it.

A horizon three times larger than the age allows

The universe is 13.8 billion years old and light travels one light year a year, so the observable universe should be 13.8 billion light years across. It is 46.1, nothing has outrun light, and the discrepancy is a piece of arithmetic rather than a paradox.

w = −0.9 is 34 millimagnitudes, and one supernova scatters by 120. Above: how much the distance modulus moves when the dark energy is not a constant. Each curve is a universe with the same Ωₘ = 0.315 and a different equation of state w, drawn as a difference from w = −1 in magnitudes. At redshift a half, w = −0.9 is worth 34 millimagnitudes — the shaded band is the 0.12-magnitude intrinsic scatter of a single standardised type Ia supernova, and the signal is a fifth of it. Nothing about one object can see this; the measurement is the mean of 1500, whose error on the mean is 3.1 millimagnitudes, and even that only works because the shape of the curve in redshift is different from every systematic anybody has thought of. Below: why the supernovae are not enough on their own. Each locus is the set of (Ωₘ, w) that a measurement cannot tell apart from the fiducial model — computed, not sketched: the supernova curve is the ridge of the same sum of squares a fit would minimise over 0.02–1 in redshift, and the acoustic-scale curve is the exact set of models with the same comoving distance to last scattering, which is what fixes the angle the microwave background's first peak subtends. They cross at 36 degrees. Neither is a measurement of w and the pair is, which is why the constraint on the equation of state is a picture of two loci crossing rather than a number read off a curve — and why −1.03 ± 0.03 is a statement about how well they cross rather than about how well anything was measured.

The number that would say whether it is a constant

Whether dark energy is a cosmological constant is the question of whether w is exactly −1, and w = −0.9 changes a distance modulus by thirty-four millimagnitudes at redshift a half — a fifth of the scatter of a single supernova, along a degeneracy only the acoustic scale can cut across.

A lumpy universe makes more of both, and one of them was already too much. The deuterium–lithium plane, with the curve a homogeneous universe traces as its baryon density varies and the points a two-zone universe reaches at a fixed mean density of η₁₀ = 6.13. The dense zone occupies 15 per cent of the volume, and the contrast between the zones runs from 1 — which is the homogeneous case — to 100. Every mixture lies up and to the right of its own homogeneous point, and that is not a modelling choice: an abundance is measured per baryon, so what a telescope averages is η times the abundance — and for both deuterium and lithium that product is a convex function of the density, whose average therefore exceeds its value at the average. The excess is large. At a contrast of 100 the mixture gives D/H = 1.13e-4 against 2.51e-5 smooth, and ⁷Li/H = 1.77e-8 against 4.70e-10, a factor of 37.7. The extra deuterium is exactly what the proposal was for: it lets the mean baryon density be raised while the observed D/H is still matched, which in the 1980s was the one way to make the baryons account for all the matter that dynamics required. The extra lithium is what it costs. The measured abundance was already a factor of 2.9 below the homogeneous prediction, and every step toward the lumpy universe that fixes the density makes that discrepancy worse — which is why the answer to "the baryons are lumpy" turned out to be that the extra matter is not baryons.

The universe that was lumpy at one second

If the baryons were unevenly spread when the network fired, each region ran its own nucleosynthesis and what is observed is an average. For a decade that was the one way to make ordinary matter account for all the matter — and the reason it fails is a theorem about convex curves.

$Whether an event horizon exists at all, against one number. The comoving event horizon today — the distance a signal sent now will ever cover — against the equation of state of the dark energy, for a flat universe with the measured matter density. The curve runs away at w = −1/3 and does not exist above it: that is where the expansion stops accelerating, and in a universe that does not accelerate the integral ∫da/a²E diverges and every galaxy is eventually reachable, however far away. Below −1/3 the horizon is finite and shrinks as w falls, because a more negative equation of state makes the dark energy density grow with time rather than stay constant. At the cosmological constant's w = −1 the horizon is 16.7 billion light years against a particle horizon of 46.1, so 4.7 per cent of the volume now observable is still reachable. The band is the measured −1.03 ± 0.03. What the figure is for is the asymmetry in what the measurement still allows: two sigma toward zero puts the horizon at 17.5 Gly and two sigma the other way at 14.7, and the shape of the curve means that the closer the true value sits to −1/3 the more violently the answer moves. The reachable fraction is not a robust number in the way the particle horizon is.$ Cosmology

Whether there is a horizon at all

An event horizon exists precisely when the expansion accelerates, and its size is not a smooth function of how much. The integral that defines it runs away as the equation of state approaches minus a third, so two sigma either way on a measured number are two very different futures.

How much a galaxy's redshift changes in 10 years, and which way. The change in a galaxy's apparent recession velocity over 10 years of the observer's time, c ż/(1 + z), against the galaxy's redshift, for three universes with the same present expansion rate of 67.36 km/s/Mpc. The drift is (1 + z) H₀ − H(z): positive if the expansion rate at the galaxy's epoch was less than (1 + z) times today's, which is to say if the expansion has been accelerating since. In the empty universe the expansion rate is exactly (1 + z) H₀ at every epoch and nothing drifts at all. In the matter-only universe the expansion has only ever slowed, and every redshift falls: −8.6 cm/s over 10 years at z = 1 and −25.5 at z = 4. In ΛCDM the drift is positive nearby, largest at z = 0.63 where it reaches 2.51 cm/s, changes sign at z = 1.91, and is −5.5 cm/s at z = 4. The whole signal is a few centimetres per second in a decade, against the thirty kilometres per second of the Earth's own orbital motion that has to be removed from every spectrum first.

A redshift that changes while it is watched

A galaxy's redshift is a ratio of two sizes of the universe, and the second one is still growing while the light is being collected. So every redshift drifts, by a few centimetres per second in a decade, and the direction of the drift says whether the expansion has been speeding up since the light left — the one test of that question that needs no distance and no model of any source.

The expansion rate and the acceleration, and which of them reaches inside an orbit. Two quantities per unit distance through cosmic time, both in units of today's H₀². The square of the expansion rate, H², falls steeply from the big bang and is 1.00 today by definition. The acceleration of the expansion, ä/a, is the sum of a matter-and-radiation part, −Ωₘ/(2a³) − Ωᵣ/a⁴, drawn dashed, and the cosmological constant's part, ΩΛ = 0.685, which is the same at every time. The sum was negative — the expansion decelerating — until the universe was 7.7 Gyr old, at a = 0.614 or redshift 0.63, and is 0.527 today. The equation of motion of anything orbiting inside a bound system carries ä/a and never H: the rate at which distant galaxies recede does not appear in it at all. Of ä/a, the matter part is the mean density of the universe, which inside a galaxy or a planetary system is already counted in the mass that is doing the holding, many million times over. What is left is the constant: a fixed outward acceleration per unit distance, ΩΛ H₀², that does not grow with time and does not care how fast the universe is expanding.

An orbit feels the acceleration and never the rate

If space expands, it is natural to ask why the Earth's orbit does not. The answer is not that gravity resists the stretching. It is that the expansion rate never appears in the equation of motion of a bound orbit at all — only the acceleration does, and of that only the cosmological constant's part survives, as a fixed outward push that moves the Earth's orbit once, by twelve picometres, and never again.

Two galaxies that stopped moving apart, and the mass that did it. The separation of two galaxies on a radial orbit that began together at the big bang, against cosmic time, solved so that after 13.797 Gyr they are 770 kpc apart and approaching at 110 km/s — the present separation and approach speed of the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy. The curve is a cycloid, r = A(1 − cos θ) and t = B(θ − sin θ), and only one cycloid passes through that point with that slope. It rose to 1037 kpc, turned round when the universe was 8.5 Gyr old, and on this purely radial orbit the two meet 3.3 Gyr from now. Its period fixes the mass: A³/(GB²) = 4.2·10¹² solar masses. The dashed curve is the same calculation with the cosmological constant's outward push included, integrated rather than solved; to arrive at the same place at the same speed against that push it needs 4.76·10¹² solar masses, 13 per cent more. Far more than the stars of the two galaxies, it is the timing argument's measurement of the Local Group's dark matter.

The age of the universe weighs the Local Group

The Andromeda galaxy is approaching the Milky Way, and in an expanding universe that means the two once moved apart, stopped and turned round. One radial orbit passes through their present separation with their present speed after exactly the age of the universe, and its period fixes the mass that turned them — four trillion suns, twenty-five times what their stars can account for.

The Sun's speed counted in quasars comes out twice too large

The microwave background is warmer in one direction by a part in a thousand, and that dipole is read as the Sun's motion through it at 370 kilometres per second. The same motion must crowd the counts of distant galaxies and quasars towards the same direction by an amount that can be calculated exactly. When a million quasars were counted, the direction agreed and the size came out more than twice too large — as though the Sun were moving at 800 kilometres per second relative to the matter.

$A delay that counts the gas nothing can see. The mean dispersion measure of a radio pulse against the redshift it comes from, for several shares of the baryons residing in diffuse ionised gas between galaxies. A pulse is delayed by free electrons in proportion to the column it crosses, and that column is an integral over the expansion history of a density the baryon budget fixes — so the only unknown in the whole expression is the share itself. At z = 1 the relation gives 1085 pc cm⁻³ if every baryon is out there and 543 at 50 per cent. The measurement runs the other way: a burst with a known host redshift and a measured delay returns the fraction, and the answer came out consistent with nucleosynthesis. A pulse a millisecond long weighs the half of the ordinary matter that no survey could find, and it does so because the thing that delays it is the thing that does not shine.$ Cosmology

Half the ordinary matter was missing, and a millisecond found it

Nucleosynthesis fixes how many baryons there are to better than a per cent. Every survey of where they are came up about half short for two decades — and what closed the gap was the delay a radio pulse picks up crossing gas too thin and too hot for any telescope to have seen.

$A mass measured by the structure it prevents. The fractional suppression of the small-scale matter power spectrum against the sum of the neutrino masses. The relic density follows from the thermal history with no astrophysics in it — the neutrinos’ share of the critical density, times h², is the mass sum divided by 93.14 eV exactly — and the suppression is about eight times the neutrinos' share of the matter, because a particle moving at a large fraction of the speed of light streams out of an overdensity while it is still growing and takes its own gravity with it. The two mass orderings put a floor under the sum at 58 meV and 100 meV; the cosmological upper bound is near 0.12 eV, which is 7.2 per cent of suppression. The floor and the ceiling are within a factor of two of each other, so this is a measurement about to happen or a model about to break, and the quantity it returns is a sum rather than any individual mass.$ Cosmology

A mass measured by what it stopped from forming

Neutrinos were relativistic in the early universe and are not now, so they are the one entry in the cosmic budget that changes category. What cosmology measures is not their density but the hole they leave — they stream out of a growing clump and take their gravity with them, and the missing structure bounds a particle mass more tightly than any laboratory has.

$Structure stops forming above about 14 times the observed Λ. The fraction of matter that ever collapses into a bound object, against the cosmological constant in units of the observed one, holding the primordial fluctuation amplitude fixed. Growth of structure stops once Λ dominates the expansion, so the linear growth factor approaches a finite limit rather than rising for ever, and a larger Λ freezes it earlier and smaller. The asymptotic growth factor at the observed Λ is 1.110; at a hundredth of it, 5.152; at a hundred times, 0.239. The collapsed fraction falls from 0.86 to 0.40 to 0.000 across the same range, and passes a tenth of its present value at 14 times the observed constant. The observed value sits a factor of 14 below the largest one that leaves anything at all — which is the whole of the anthropic argument, and that factor is what has to be compared against the 10¹²⁰ by which the naive theoretical estimate misses.$ Cosmology

A coincidence that is a factor of fourteen

The cosmological constant is famously wrong by a hundred and twenty orders of magnitude, and famously coincidental in sitting near the matter density now. Computing how large it could be and still leave any structure at all turns the second complaint into a number — and the number is fourteen, not a hundred and twenty.

Three fits of the dark energy's equation of state, and the line they all cross. The equation of state w of the dark energy against redshift, for the three combined fits published with the second year of acoustic-scale data from the largest spectroscopic galaxy survey — the same galaxy and microwave-background data with three different supernova compilations — each written as w = w₀ + wₐ z/(1 + z). A cosmological constant is the horizontal line at −1. All three fits have w above −1 today (between −0.84 and −0.67) and below it in the past, and they cross it at redshift 0.35, 0.44, 0.41. Below −1 lies the phantom region, where a density grows as the universe expands; a single field with ordinary kinetic energy can be on either side of the line but cannot cross it. The preference for these fits over a constant is quoted at 2.8, 3.8 and 4.2 standard deviations, and the only thing that differs between the three is the supernovae.

A crossing that may belong to the fitting form

Allow the dark energy's equation of state to change and three independent fits say it has: above −1 today, below it before redshift half. The data hold w well at one redshift only, a line crossed from below is one no single field can cross, and a straight line in the scale factor fitted to a curved history crosses it anyway.

Every curvature has a Hubble constant that leaves the peaks where they are. The Hubble constant a universe needs in order to put the acoustic peaks of the microwave background at the measured angle, against its spatial curvature Ωₖ, with the physical densities of baryons, matter and radiation held at their fitted values so that the sound horizon is unchanged. Along this line the angle θ* — the sound horizon over the distance to last scattering — is exactly constant and the peak positions do not move. The flat member has H₀ = 67.4 km/s/Mpc; a closed universe with Ωₖ = −0.044 needs 53.5, with a matter density of 0.50; an open one with Ωₖ = +0.010 reaches the locally measured 73. The peaks alone therefore measure a combination of curvature and expansion rate, not either one, and the statement that the universe is flat to a few parts in a thousand needs a second distance measured somewhere else.

A flatness that needs a second distance

The universe is said to be flat to two parts in a thousand, and the figure is usually credited to the microwave background. On its own the background measures one angle, and one angle fixes one distance — so every curvature has a Hubble constant that reproduces the peaks exactly. Flatness is where that line crosses a second measurement, and it is only as good as the crossing.

Where solved fields land in the plane the surveys fit. The w₀–wₐ plane, with the cross at a cosmological constant. Each small point is the best two-parameter description, through the same mock survey as the earlier figures, of a scalar field solved from its own equation: four thawing potentials at seven values of w₀ from −0.97 to −0.62, and freezing trackers on inverse-power potentials with exponents from a quarter to two. The thawing fields all land on one line through the constant, wₐ ≈ −1.49(1 + w₀), with no point more than 0.08 from it; the freezing fields land on the other side, with wₐ positive. The three published fits (larger points, with their quoted errors) lie below the thawing line by −0.38, −0.59, −0.49 in wₐ: steeper than any thawing field with their present value would be. The diagonal is w₀ + wₐ = −1. The thawing line is steeper than it, so every thawing field is fitted as having crossed −1 — but early: these fits cross between redshift 1.7 and 3.3, where a line through the constant with this slope must, near z = 1/(1.49 − 1) = 2.0. The published fits cross near redshift 0.4.

Every thawing field falls on one line

A scalar field that is the dark energy sits still while the universe expands quickly, and begins to roll only when the expansion has slowed to the field's own mass. Solve the field instead of fitting a line to it, and four quite different potentials give one history and one line through the plane the surveys fit — a line the published fits do not sit on.

How much each change moves the growth rate. The percentage difference in fσ₈ from growth in relativity inside a cosmological constant's expansion, against redshift, for three alternatives started from the same early amplitude. Changing the expansion to the evolving fit with DES-SN5YR and keeping relativity moves it by −1.2 per cent at redshift 0.5, and by at most 2.1 per cent anywhere below redshift 2. Keeping the constant's expansion and changing gravity to γ = 0.68 moves it by −8.6 per cent; doing both, −10.3. The shaded band is ±8 per cent, about the error of one of the better redshift-space measurements so far. The difference between a constant and the evolving fit is several times smaller than any single measurement; the difference between two laws of gravity is comparable to one. Growth is a weak test of whether the dark energy is changing and a strong test of whether it is gravity.

The growth that tells a substance from a law

In relativity an expansion history leaves no freedom in how fast structure grows inside it, so every fitted history predicts its own growth. The evolving dark energy the surveys prefer changes that growth by one or two per cent; a change in the law of gravity, with the expansion held fixed, changes it by nine. Growth is a weak test of whether the dark energy is changing and a strong test of whether it is there at all.

Four ways for a galaxy to fade with redshift. The dimming of a galaxy's surface brightness, in magnitudes per square arcsecond, against redshift, for the same galaxy placed at greater and greater distance. In an expanding universe the bolometric surface brightness falls as (1+z)⁴: 3.01 magnitudes by z = 1 and 7.8 by z = 5. Measured per unit frequency, as magnitudes in a filter are, one power is absorbed by the stretching of the band and the dimming is (1+z)³. If photons lost energy on a static journey ("tired light"), only one power would remain — 0.75 magnitudes at z = 1. In a static space with no loss there is no dimming at all, because flux and solid angle both fall as the inverse square of distance. At z = 1 expansion and tired light differ by 2.3 magnitudes, a factor of 8 in brightness.

A dimming short by what young stars repay

In an expanding universe a galaxy's surface brightness should fall as the fourth power of one plus its redshift; if light merely tired on its way through static space, as the first power. Measured on elliptical galaxies at redshift 0.85, it falls as about the two-and-a-half power — neither. The verdict on expansion rests on what the galaxies did in the meantime, and the decisive fact is not the size of the shortfall but its sign: expansion needs the galaxies to have been brighter when their stars were younger, and tired light needs them to have been fainter.

One likelihood, read with three priors. A Gaussian likelihood in the effective neutrino mass sum, peaking at −0.08 eV with a width of 0.05 eV — of the shape that combinations of microwave-background and baryon-acoustic data have been reported to give. Read with no prior it says the data prefer a negative sum. Read with the physical prior, sum ≥ 0 (shaded right of zero), its 95 per cent upper limit is 0.059 eV, at the normal-ordering floor. Read with the oscillation prior, sum ≥ 0.059 eV, its limit is 0.102 eV — but only 0.3 per cent of the likelihood lies above the floor at all, which is the more informative number: the data and the oscillation experiments disagree at about 2.8 standard deviations.

A bound below the floor is not a mass

Oscillation experiments prove that neutrinos weigh at least 0.059 eV between them. Cosmology's latest upper bound on their total is 0.064 eV, and a bound computed differently would sit below the floor. The usual reading is that cosmology has nearly weighed the neutrino. The better one is that the fit's likelihood peaks at a negative mass: the data see more clustering than any real neutrino allows, and the bound is a symptom of that tension rather than a measurement of anything.

A ratio in which the galaxies cancel

Matter falls in one gravitational potential and light is bent by the sum of two, and relativity says the two are equal. A survey that measures both the infall of galaxies and the lensing around them can divide one by the other so that the galaxies' bias and the fluctuations' amplitude both cancel — leaving a ratio that relativity predicts from the matter density alone, and that a gravity which bends light differently from the way it pulls matter cannot fake.

Three reasons the flicker slows with redshift, only one of them cosmology. The observed flicker timescale of the faintest quasars a flux-limited survey can see, relative to its value at redshift 0.2, logarithmic, separated into its causes: time dilation alone (a factor 5.0 by redshift 4); the bluer rest-frame wavelength a fixed band samples at higher redshift, which shortens the timescale (×0.78); and the heavier black holes the flux limit selects (×15.3). Together, ×49.9. Read as a power of (1+z) the total has exponent 2.74 where dilation alone has 1.00: a test that does not hold mass and wavelength fixed measures the selection, not the expansion.

A clock that flickers without a tick

If the universe expands, every process seen at redshift z runs (1+z) times slow. A supernova carries a calibrated clock and shows it. A quasar's light wanders with no period at all, and its characteristic timescale grows with the mass of its black hole and shrinks with the colour it is seen in, both of which change with redshift in any real survey. Reading the dilation from quasars means holding those fixed first, and on a short enough baseline the measurement hides the effect it is looking for.

The static universe is a saddle in the plane of size and speed. Every history of a closed universe of dust and an exactly balancing cosmological constant, as curves of constant energy in the plane of size against rate of change of size, in units of the static radius and 1/√(4πGρ). The two thick curves cross at the static point: they are the histories that approach it for an infinite time or leave it after an infinite time. Above them a universe expands from a big bang through forever or contracts from forever; to the left it rises from a big bang and falls back; to the right it contracts, bounces, and expands. No history other than the point itself stays near it.

A balance that is a saddle

In 1917 Einstein added a constant to his equations to hold the universe still, and the constant does exactly that: there is one size at which the attraction of matter and the repulsion of the constant cancel. Eddington showed in 1930 that the balance is a pencil on its point. A thousandth out and it is gone in seven units of its own free-fall time. The instability is not a flaw of that one model. It is why the real universe could cross the same balance without stopping.

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