Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
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The precession-track generator

The path of the celestial pole over 25,772 years
The path of the celestial pole over 25,772 years. The circle the Earth's rotation axis traces among the stars, at a radius equal to the obliquity, with the bright stars that fall near it and the years at which each is closest. Polaris is the pole star for a few centuries either side of now, and nothing else on the circle is nearly as close.

The circle the Earth's rotation axis traces among the stars, at a radius equal to the obliquity, with the bright stars that fall near it and the years at which each is closest. Polaris is the pole star for a few centuries either side of now, and nothing else on the circle is nearly as close.

11 essays call precession-track. The drawing above is what it returns with no arguments at all; every call below passes it something, because a placement that passes nothing draws whichever member of the family the generator happens to default to rather than the one its essay argues about.

Where it is called

Every figure listed here is the same construction drawn at different numbers, so a correction to one is a correction to all of them.

The path of the celestial pole over 25,772 years. The circle the Earth's rotation axis traces among the stars, at a radius equal to the obliquity, with the bright stars that fall near it and the years at which each is closest. Polaris is the pole star for a few centuries either side of now, and nothing else on the circle is nearly as close. The observed sky

The pole star has a shelf life, and the sky has a slow hand

The Earth's axis traces a circle among the stars once every 25,772 years. Polaris is at the pole now, was not four thousand years ago, and will not be in two thousand more.

 The wobble inside the wobble. Left: the two components of nutation over 40 years, from the four largest terms of the standard series. The long wave is the regression of the Moon's node in 18.613 years, which is where nearly all of it comes from; the ripple on it is the semi-annual solar term at 1.3″ and the semi-monthly lunar one at 0.2″. Right: the loop the pole actually traces over one node cycle, in arcseconds on the sky, with the mean pole at the centre. The loop is 14.89″ by 19.90″ — taller than it is wide, because the longitude term is foreshortened by sin ε while the obliquity term is not, which is the one thing a schematic of this is always drawn getting wrong. Over the same 18.6 years precession itself carries the pole 936″ along its circle, 47 times the loop's own height, so nutation is a wobble on a path and not a path. It is nonetheless 99,480 times the 0.2 mas astrometry of a modern catalogue, which is why a position has to say whether it is referred to the mean pole or the true one. The observed sky

The wobble inside the wobble

Precession and nutation are the same torque. The difference is that the Moon's orbital plane turns once in 18.6 years, so part of the pull oscillates instead of accumulating — and a catalogue position is not a direction until it says which pole it is measured from.

 Two equilibria become four, and three worlds sit near the join. The Cassini equilibria of a spin axis, drawn against the ratio of its own precession rate to the rate at which its orbit plane turns, for an orbit inclination of 1.5 degrees. Each column of dots is the full set of obliquities at which the two precessions keep step at that ratio, found by root-finding rather than by tracing a remembered curve. Below α cos ε/|g| = 1.135 there are two such obliquities and above it there are four, and the figure checks both counts on either side of the join. The three marked bodies are placed by their own measured precession constants: the Earth with the Moon at 2.67, safely on the four-state side; the Earth without it at 0.86; and Mars at 1.06. Two of the three sit within a few tenths of the bifurcation, which is the whole reason their obliquities are not constants: near the join the equilibria are close together, the libration around them is wide, and a body pushed between neighbouring resonances wanders. The Moon's contribution to the Earth's precession constant is what moves the first mark away from that region, and the second mark is the same planet with that contribution removed. This is a two-frequency model of a many-frequency system, and the real chaos comes from the overlap of resonances it does not contain. The observed sky

A tilt that is not a constant

The Earth's axis leans by 23.4 degrees, and that lean is what makes the seasons. It is also a dynamical variable with its own equilibria, its own resonances and its own chaos — and on Mars the same variable has swung between nearly zero and sixty degrees without anything having to happen.

 A wobble that should have stopped seventy years ago. Left, the path of the Earth's rotation pole across its own crust over 13 years, as the sum of two circular motions: the 433-day Chandler wobble at 150 milliarcseconds and the annual wobble at 90. The spiral is a beat, and its period measured off the drawn path is 6.39 years against the 6.39 the two frequencies require. Right, the same path's radius against time. Two numbers in this figure are the argument. The first is the Chandler period itself: a rigid Earth of dynamical ellipticity 0.0032737 would wobble freely at 305 days, and the observed 433 is 42 per cent longer because the Earth deforms under its own wobble and the oceans move with it — the period is a measurement of the planet's elasticity, made by watching a free motion rather than by forcing anything. The second is the damping: at a quality factor of about 100 the wobble should decay in 38 years, and it has been running for as long as anyone has watched. Something is exciting it continuously, and the excitation is fluctuating pressure at the bottom of the ocean and in the atmosphere. What the figure cannot show is the excitation itself, which is not periodic and is only visible statistically. The observed sky

A wobble that should have stopped

The Earth's rotation pole wanders across its own crust in a circle a few metres wide. A rigid Earth would do it in 305 days; it takes 433, and the difference is a measurement of the planet's elasticity. At the observed damping it should have died out within a human lifetime, and it has not.

 Why the Moon holds the tilt still. Spin-axis precession rate against obliquity, with the solar system's own secular frequencies drawn across it. The rising-and-falling curves are α cos ε for three precession constants: the Earth as it is, with the Moon supplying about two thirds of the torque; and a Moonless Earth at two plausible rotation rates. The horizontal lines are the nodal eigenfrequencies of the planetary secular system — s₆, s₃, s₄, s₂, s₁, s₇, s₈ — which are the rates at which the Earth's own orbit plane wobbles. A crossing is a resonance: the axis is precessing about a plane that is itself turning at the same rate, the resonant angle stops circulating, and the obliquity librates instead of holding still. The present Earth precesses at 50.3 arcseconds a year, faster than every secular frequency in the list, and its nearest crossing is at 61.3°, which is 37.8 degrees from the obliquity drawn. Take the Moon away and α falls by a factor of three; the crossings come down with it, 3 of them land below 85°, and where several overlap the obliquity has no stable value at all. The Moon does not hold the axis by pulling on it. It holds it by making the precession too fast to resonate with anything. The observed sky

A tilt held still by being too fast to resonate

The Moon does not hold the Earth's axis by pulling on it. It triples the rate at which the axis precesses, which lifts that rate clear of every frequency at which the Earth's own orbit plane wobbles — and a precession with nothing to resonate with cannot wander.

 Mars's tilt over fifty million years, and a steadier twin. The obliquity of a Mars-like planet against time over 50 million years, integrated from 25 degrees with its orbital plane wobbling in five secular modes. With Mars's precession constant, 8.26 arcseconds a year, the axis wanders between 1 and 70 degrees, lingering near some values and lurching between them. The same planet precessing 6 times faster — about the Earth's rate, which the Moon's pull makes possible — stays between 23.2 and 30.8 degrees, because its precession is too fast to resonate with any of the orbital-plane frequencies. The orbital perturbations are illustrative, of the size Mars's own are; the chaos is computed from them. The observed sky

A past that can only be given as odds

Mars's axis is tilted by twenty-five degrees today, and nothing holds it there. Its slow precession falls among the frequencies at which its orbital plane wobbles, the resonances overlap, and the tilt wanders chaotically between nearly zero and sixty degrees. Two calculations that start a hair apart part company within a few tens of millions of years — so Mars's obliquity a billion years ago is not a number anybody will compute. What can be computed is how much of its history the planet spent at each tilt, and that distribution is a prediction the ice at its poles can test.

 The nutation lines and the core's resonance. The resonance factor |σ₀ / (σ − σ₀)|, σ₀ being the free core nutation's frequency, on a logarithmic scale, against frequency in the celestial frame in cycles per sidereal day, negative for retrograde motion, with the free core nutation at a period of 430.2 days retrograde. The vertical lines are the largest forced nutations the Sun and Moon drive: the 18.6-year, annual, semiannual and fortnightly terms, each prograde and retrograde, and precession at zero. Any part of the Earth's response that involves the core is multiplied by this factor. The retrograde annual term, 365 days, is 5.6 on this scale; the prograde annual term 0.46; the retrograde 18.6-year term 1.07. The annual retrograde nutation is the one the core's resonance distorts most, because a year is the forced period nearest the core's own. The observed sky

A core that wobbles at its own period

The Earth's liquid core can turn about an axis slightly tilted from the mantle's, and the flattened boundary between them pushes it back. That gives the planet a second free mode of rotation: in space a slow retrograde nutation of about 430 days, on the ground a wobble just faster than once a day. Its period is a measurement of the shape of a surface under 2,900 kilometres of rock, and it is read twice — in the nodding of the Earth's axis against the quasars, and in the rise and fall of the solid ground under the daily tides.

 The summer sunshine at Mars's north pole over the last million years. The sunshine reaching Mars's north pole at the summer solstice, relative to its average, over the last 1,000 thousand years (blue), from a forcing built from the main periods of Mars's recent orbit: the tilt varying by about 3.5 degrees in 120,000 years and 1 degree in 99,000, the eccentricity by 0.03 in 95,000 years and 0.02 in 2.4 million, and the perihelion going round the seasons once in 51,000 years. The part due to the tilt alone is dashed. The sunshine swings by a factor of 2.06 between its extremes: the tilt sets a slow swell with a period of 120,000 years, and the precession, whose strength the eccentricity sets, cuts a faster ripple of 51,000 years into it, strongest when the orbit is most eccentric. These two periods, and their ratio of 2.35, are what a record of the sunshine should carry. The observed sky

Layers that keep the rhythm and lose the dates

Mars's polar caps are stacks of ice and dust laid down while the planet's tilt and orbit changed the summer sunshine, and the question is whether they can be read as a record of that sunshine. They can — for the rhythm. Even when the ice accumulates faster under weak sunshine than under strong, the cycles of the tilt and the precession survive in the depth of the stack in their correct proportion. What does not survive is the date of any one layer.

 The rhythms in the rock, set by the Moon's distance. The periods of the climatic precession cycles — the precession constant plus the perihelion frequency of each of the planets that dominate the Earth's eccentricity — and of the obliquity cycle, the precession constant plus the node frequency s₃, against the Earth–Moon distance. Today they are 23.8, 22.4, 19.0 thousand years for precession and 41 for obliquity. At 341,000 km they were 14.7, 14.2, 12.8 and 20.0. The planetary frequencies are held at today's values, which the chaos of the inner solar system makes uncertain beyond a few tens of millions of years; the precession constant is the term that moves. The observed sky

A rhythm in the rock that measures the Moon

The Earth's axis precesses because the Sun and Moon pull on its equatorial bulge, and two-thirds of the pull is the Moon's. When the Moon was nearer and the day shorter, the axis turned faster, and the climate cycles that precession drives were shorter. Sediments laid down 1.4 billion years ago record those cycles — and with nothing in the rock but layer thicknesses, the ratio of two rhythms gives the Moon's distance at the time.

 Two old points, and the history they draw back to the Moon's birth. The Earth–Moon distance against time before the present, with the estimates from tidal rhythmites (620 million years), cyclic sediments (1.4 billion) and banded iron formation (2.46 billion, 321.8 thousand km, ±6.2). Today's tidal efficiency, scaled as the inverse sixth power of the distance, brings the Moon to the Earth 1.54 billion years ago. The efficiency fitted between the two oldest points — 21% of today's — held further back brings it out from the Earth 4.78 billion years ago, close to the Moon's age of about 4.5 billion. The constant law is an assumption; what the points measure is the average between them. The observed sky

A Moon measured in banded iron

Layers of iron-rich sediment laid down 2.46 billion years ago in what is now Western Australia keep time with the Earth's precession, and the precession's period says how far away the Moon was: about 321,800 kilometres, with a day of seventeen hours. Together with an older-is-closer point from 1.4 billion years ago, it measures how hard the tides worked between them — about a fifth as hard as today. Held further back, that efficiency brings the Moon out from the Earth a few hundred million years too early, which says the young tides worked harder than the middle-aged ones.

 The Moon's reach north and south, over two cycles of its node. The greatest declination the Moon reaches in a month, north or south, from 2010 to 2045: about 23.44° plus the orbit's 5.145° tilt times the cosine of the node's longitude, which regresses once in 18.61 years. At the major standstill (2025.1, and 2006.5, 2043.7) the Moon reaches 28.6°, five degrees beyond the Sun's solstice declination (dashed); at the minor standstill, 18.3°, five degrees short of it. Near each extreme the reach changes slowly for two or three years, which is the standstill. The observed sky

A Moon that rises further north than the Sun

The Sun's rising point swings north and south with the seasons between limits that do not change from one year to the next. The Moon's swings with the month, and its limits themselves open and close over 18.6 years as the plane of its orbit turns. At the widest, in 2024 and 2025, the Moon rose five degrees of declination further north than the midsummer Sun and skimmed the southern horizon of northern Scotland; at the narrowest, nine years later, it stays well inside the Sun's range.

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