Generator

The tension-plot generator

H₀: nine determinations in two families

Published determinations of H₀, each with its quoted one-sigma interval, sorted into two families — measured locally, calibrated by a ladder, against inferred from z ≈ 1100 through a model. The shaded band behind each family is that family's inverse-variance weighted mean: 72.66 ± 0.75 across 5 of them, against 67.40 ± 0.41 across 4. The difference is 5.26 ± 0.85 km/s/Mpc, which is 6.2 standard deviations, computed here from the quoted errors alone. That number is an upper bound on the significance rather than the significance: the determinations within each family share calibrations, samples and in two cases the same supernovae, so they are not independent, and a correlated pair combines to something wider than the formula used here gives. What the figure does establish is that the split is not one discrepant measurement against a consensus — it is two internally consistent groups, and the grouping is by method rather than by result.

5 essays call tension-plot. The drawing above is what it returns with no arguments at all; every call below passes it something, because a placement that passes nothing draws whichever member of the family the generator happens to default to rather than the one its essay argues about.

Where it is called

Every figure listed here is the same construction drawn at different numbers, so a correction to one is a correction to all of them.

G: 14 determinations in two families. Published determinations of G, each with its quoted one-sigma interval, sorted into two families — torsion balance, in one form or another, against beam balance, pendulum, atom interferometry. The shaded band behind each family is that family's inverse-variance weighted mean: 6.67435 ± 0.00004 across 11 of them, against 6.67343 ± 0.00009 across 3. The difference is 0.00092 ± 0.00010 10⁻¹¹ m³ kg⁻¹ s⁻², which is 9.3 standard deviations, computed here from the quoted errors alone. The arithmetic is the same one the Hubble figure uses and here it should be distrusted, because the scatter inside each family already exceeds what the intervals allow: eleven torsion-balance determinations spread over 500 parts per million with quoted intervals of 12 to 130 cannot all be right, whatever the difference between the families comes to. That is why the recommended value's uncertainty is expanded far beyond any single experiment's rather than being the weighted combination drawn here — the disagreement is between laboratories using the same method, not between methods.

Nothing in the sky is weighed in kilograms

The Sun's gravitational parameter is known to eleven significant figures. The Sun's mass is known to five. The two statements are about the same object and the difference between them is a constant measured in basements, which is the worst-determined fundamental constant in physics.

$GW150914: 33 Hz to 250 Hz in 0.22 seconds. The strain of GW150914 — two black holes — through the last 0.22 seconds before merger, computed from the quadrupole sweep at the chirp mass its fit returned, 28.716 solar masses, and drawn at the luminosity distance it returned, 440 megaparsecs. Two things rise together and neither is free to rise on its own: the frequency goes from 33 Hz to 250 Hz, and the envelope — the outer curve — grows by a factor of 3.9, because the amplitude goes as f^2/3 and nothing else in it changes over so short a span. The vertical axis is in units of 10⁻²¹, so the peak here is a fractional length change of about 2.9·10⁻²¹: over the four kilometres of an interferometer arm that is 1.2·10⁻¹⁷ metres, a thousandth of the width of a proton. The chirp mass is not fitted to the amplitude at all — it comes from the spacing of these zero crossings, which is why it is the best-determined number in the whole event and why the distance, which does come from the amplitude, is the worst.$ Gravitation

A distance with no ladder under it

The frequency sweep of an inspiral fixes the chirp mass with no distance in it, and the amplitude then gives the luminosity distance directly, because one expression fixes both. That is a distance measured with nothing calibrated beneath it — and its error budget is one angle.

A delay of 81 days, and a sheet nobody can see that moves H₀ to 82.4. Above: the arrival-time surface of a lensed source, along the line through the lens. The curve is the Fermat potential in days — the geometric cost of taking a longer path, minus the gravitational cost of climbing out of the potential — and the images sit at its stationary points, at -1.20″ and 2.04″, which for an isothermal sphere is β ± θ_E. Fermat's principle is doing all of the work here: light does not take the shortest path or the quickest one, it takes every stationary one, and the number of images is the number of stationary points. The vertical distance between the two is 81 days, and it is measurable — the source is a quasar, quasars vary, and the same wiggle appears in one image and then the other. That single number carries an absolute distance: the delay is D_Δt/c times a dimensionless function of the lens model, and D_Δt goes as 1/H₀, so a monitoring campaign gives the Hubble constant with no rung of any ladder beneath it. Below: the two light curves, shifted by exactly that delay. The dashed curve is the second image with the delay removed, and the agreement is the measurement. What the picture also shows is the reason the answer keeps moving. The second arrival-time curve is the same lens with a uniform sheet of convergence added and the source moved to compensate: every image sits at the same place, every flux ratio is the same, every image shape is the same, and the delay is λ = 0.85 times as long. A lens model fitted to positions alone cannot see the sheet, and inferring H₀ from the same delay under it gives 82.4 instead of 70 — a 15 per cent shift with no observable attached. Breaking it needs a mass measured some other way: the velocity dispersion of the deflector, or a count of everything else along the line of sight.

A distance measured with a stopwatch

The images of a lensed quasar sit at the stationary points of an arrival-time surface, and the height between two of them is a delay in days. That delay is proportional to a distance, and the distance is proportional to one over the Hubble constant — so a flickering quasar gives H₀ with no ladder under it.

The same constant, measured twice, five sigma apart

The distance ladder gives an expansion rate of about 73 kilometres per second per megaparsec. The microwave background gives 67.4. Both quote errors near one per cent, both have been rebuilt from scratch by rival teams, and the gap between them has grown as the measurements have improved.

Take 8 per cent off the horizon and the tension is gone. The Hubble constant against the sound horizon at recombination, along the locus the microwave background's measured angular scale fixes. What is measured is an angle — the angular size of the horizon, to a part in three thousand — and an angle is a length divided by a distance, so extracting an expansion rate requires the length. That length is computed from the physics of the first four hundred thousand years: the baryon density, the radiation density, the number of relativistic species and the recombination history. Change any of those and the locus is unchanged while the point on it moves. The horizontal band is the late-universe measurement from the distance ladder, and it meets the locus at 136 megaparsecs — 8 per cent shorter than the standard model gives. That is the arithmetic behind every proposal to resolve the disagreement by changing the early universe rather than the late one.

A constant that is an angle divided by a length

The microwave background does not measure an expansion rate. It measures one angle — the apparent size of the sound horizon at recombination — to a part in three thousand, and converting that angle into a rate requires the horizon's physical length, which is computed from a model of the first four hundred thousand years rather than observed.

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