Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
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Galactic nuclei — the series

2 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. S2's orbit, and the mass it implies. The orbit of S2 about the centre of the Milky Way, drawn from its measured elements: a semi-major axis of 0.1251 arcseconds, which at 8.28 kpc is 1036 AU, an eccentricity of 0.8843, and a period of 16.05 years watched round twice. Kepler's third law in solar units — a³/P² — gives 4.31 million solar masses, by exactly the calculation that weighs a planetary system. At periapsis the star is 120 AU from the focus, 1407 Schwarzschild radii, and the mean density inside that radius is 5.3e+15 M☉ per cubic parsec — a million times the densest star cluster known. That density, not the mass, is the argument: there is no configuration of stars that would fit.

    The mass at the centre that is not stars

    One star at the centre of the Milky Way has been watched round a complete orbit. Its semi-major axis and its period give four million solar masses by Kepler's third law — and the volume that mass occupies is small enough to rule out every alternative to a black hole.

    part 1 · galaxies
  2. The last parsec, priced in stars. The two timescales that shrink a pair of 10⁸-solar-mass black holes at the centre of a merged galaxy, against their separation in parsecs, both axes logarithmic, for a stellar velocity dispersion of 200 km/s and a central density of 500 solar masses per cubic parsec. Ejecting stars hardens the binary at a rate proportional to the separation, so that timescale grows as the orbit shrinks; gravitational radiation goes as the fourth power of the separation, so its timescale collapses. Neither alone finishes the job and the crossing of the two is where the answer is set. With the loss cone kept full, the crossing is at 2.9e-2 parsecs and the total is 4.2·10⁸ years, inside a Hubble time. With the supply of low-angular-momentum orbits emptied by a factor of 100 — which is what happens in a smooth spherical nucleus, because the stars that could interact have already been thrown out and two-body relaxation refills the orbits far too slowly — the crossing moves outward to 7.3e-2 parsecs and the total becomes 1.7·10¹⁰ years. That is the final-parsec problem, and it is not a problem about gravity: it is a problem about supply. Real nuclei are not spherical, and the figure cannot show what a triaxial potential does, which is to keep feeding the binary orbits it has not already used.

    The last parsec, and the stars that are not there

    Two galaxies merge and their central black holes sink towards each other, and then stop. From about a parsec apart, friction no longer works and gravitational radiation is not yet strong enough — and the only mechanism in between throws away the stars it depends on faster than they can be replaced.

    part 2 · galaxies

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