Kozai–Lidov — the series
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An inclination that turns into an eccentricity
A distant companion cannot change an orbit's size or its energy. It can take a circular orbit tilted past 39.23 degrees and drive it to an eccentricity near one, and back, over and over — and the companion's mass and distance set only the clock.
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The precession that switches the cycle off
A distant companion can trade an orbit's inclination for its eccentricity, over and over, and drive a pericentre almost onto the central body. General relativity's own precession competes with the mechanism for the same pericentre, and when it wins the cycle stops — sharply, at a ratio of one, which puts a floor on how close anything can be delivered.
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A cycle that builds what the wave needs
Gravitational radiation empties an orbit at a rate that goes as the inverse seventh power of one minus the square of the eccentricity. A distant companion drives exactly that eccentricity, over and over. The two are not independent mechanisms that happen to act on the same binary — the first manufactures, at its own peak, the configuration the second is most efficient in.
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A ceiling the outer orbit imposes
The closed form for how far a cycle can drive an eccentricity assumes the inner orbit is a test particle, so the angular momentum it gives up goes nowhere. A real inner binary of comparable mass has to be paid for: the outer orbit absorbs what the inner one loses, tilts, and changes the very inclination the cycle depends on.
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An orbit that turns over
A distant third body makes an inner orbit trade inclination for eccentricity in slow, regular cycles, and one quantity — the inner orbit's angular momentum along the outer orbit's axis — keeps the trade bounded and forbids the orbit from ever tipping past ninety degrees. That conservation holds only if the outer orbit is a circle. Make it eccentric and the quantity drifts, the cycles stop repeating, and at a moment of extreme eccentricity the inner orbit turns over, from prograde to retrograde, with its pericentre pressed a thousand times closer than the regular cycle allowed.
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Eleven in a hundred by geometry, and the rest by waiting
A distant companion drives an inner orbit through cycles of eccentricity, and whether a given system reaches a dangerously close approach depends on its inclination. Counted over a population with random orientations, the answer at quadrupole order is pure geometry — about eleven per cent reach one per cent of their semi-major axis, all at the same inclination. An eccentric outer orbit multiplies that share, spreads the inclinations, and makes the count depend on how long the systems have been waiting.