Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
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Quasars — the series

2 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. A 20-day delay, recovered at 20 days from two curves that share no wavelength. Above: a quasar's continuum, drawn as a damped random walk with a 90-day damping time, and the broad emission line responding to it. The line curve is the continuum convolved with a top-hat response of half-width 20 days, so it is later and smoother — it varies only 51 per cent as much, because at any instant it is an average of the continuum over a range of light-travel times. Below: the cross-correlation of the two, which peaks at 20 days. That number is a length: 20 light-days is 5.2·10¹⁴ metres, or 3463 astronomical units, and it has been measured for an object that subtends 3.5·10⁻⁵ arcseconds at a hundred megaparsecs — some thirty times finer than the best optical interferometry has ever resolved anything, and reached here with a photometer and a clock. The irregularity of the continuum is what makes this work. A periodic source would give a cross-correlation with many equal peaks and no way to choose; a random one gives a single peak, and the whole method rests on active nuclei being erratic.

    A size measured from a delay

    An active nucleus at redshift two is a point source in every telescope ever built, and its central mass is measured anyway. The continuum varies, the broad lines follow days later, and the lag is a light-travel time — which is a length, recovered from two light curves that share no wavelength.

    part 1 · galaxies
  2. A single-epoch mass, good to a factor of 2.6. The error budget of a black-hole mass obtained from one spectrum, as probability densities in the logarithm of the ratio of the estimate to the truth. Four independent widths go in. The radius comes from the luminosity through a relation with 0.19 dex of scatter about it. The line width has to be measured on a profile that is blended with narrow lines and with iron, and it enters the mass squared, so 0.12 dex. The luminosity was not measured at the epoch the relation was calibrated for and the object has varied since, which is 0.053 dex. And the term this figure exists for is orientation: the virial factor is one number fitted to a sample, every individual object has its own according to how its broad-line region is inclined, and the spread of that is 0.35 dex — the largest of the four by some margin. In quadrature the total is 0.42 dex — a factor of 2.6 — and the drawn total's half-width is checked against that combination rather than assumed. The bracket at the foot is a different kind of error and is not in the quadrature: the absolute calibration of the virial factor, uncertain by about a factor of 3, which moves every quasar mass ever published by the same 0.24 dex and widens nothing.

    The factor that multiplies every quasar mass

    A reverberation lag and a line width give a length times a velocity squared, which is a mass multiplied by an unknown number of order one. That number is fixed by making a few dozen nearby active galaxies lie on a correlation measured in quiescent ones — so every black-hole mass at redshift two rests on a fit performed at redshift zero.

    part 2 · galaxies

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