Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Series

Transit timing — the series

6 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. A transit that will not keep time. Transit times of a planet of 8 Earth masses on a 3-day orbit, minus the best straight line through them, from a three-body integration in which the second planet at 4.62 days is the only thing perturbing it. The residual swings by ±1.7 minutes and repeats over 58 days — the super-period 1/|3/P₂ − 2/P₁|, which is long precisely because the pair is near the 3:2 resonance and gets longer the nearer it is. The amplitude is proportional to the perturbing planet's mass, so fitting this curve weighs a planet that may never transit at all. The short jagged component is not noise: it is the chopping signal, one kick per conjunction at the 8.6-day synodic period, sampled once every 3 days by the transits themselves and so barely above the rate at which it can be followed. The integration conserved energy to 1.6e-10.

    Planets found by a transit running late

    A planet on a fixed orbit transits like a clock. A second planet pulling on it makes the clock run fast and slow by minutes — and fitting that wander weighs a planet that may never cross the star at all.

    part 1 · exoplanets
  2. Three perturbing masses drawing one curve. Transit-timing residuals for three systems whose perturbing planets are 12, 8, 5 Earth masses — a factor of 2.4 apart — each given the inner-planet eccentricity that the near-resonant theory says will compensate: 0.0000, 0.0166, 0.0363. The three curves have amplitudes of 1.7, 1.7, 1.7 minutes, within 0 per cent of each other, and they are drawn by three separate integrations that were told nothing about the theory used to pick the eccentricities. The eccentricity enters the near-resonant term divided by Δ, the fractional distance from exact resonance — here 0.0267 — so a hundredth of an eccentricity does the work of a factor of two in mass. This is why a transit-timing mass is not a mass until something else fixes the eccentricity, and why the masses that came out of the first years of such fits were systematically lower than the radial-velocity masses of the same planets.

    A mass that is only a mass once the eccentricity is known

    The near-resonant part of a transit-timing signal carries the perturber's mass and the pair's free eccentricity in the same bracket, divided by the distance from resonance. A hundredth of an eccentricity therefore does the work of a factor of two in mass, and three quite different systems draw one curve.

    part 2 · exoplanets
  3. An ephemeris fitted to 120 days, 43 minutes wrong within a year against a band of ±5.1. Transit times of a 6 Earth-mass planet on a 10-day orbit, perturbed by a 14 Earth-mass planet at 15.24 days, integrated for 1460 days and compared with a straight-line ephemeris fitted only to the transits in the first 120 days — the shaded window. Inside the window the line fits to 2.1 minutes. Outside it the pair's 317-day super-period carries the transits away from the line, and within a year of the window closing the prediction is 42.8 minutes early of the observed transit, 347 days after the last fitted one. The narrow band is the formal three-sigma uncertainty of the same line for a timing precision of 0.5 minutes per transit, which at that date is ±5.1 minutes: the error is 8.4 times the band. A statistical uncertainty assumes the residuals are noise, and these are a signal, so the band describes a planet that does not exist.

    A forecast that fails on a schedule

    A transiting planet perturbed near a resonance keeps a clock that wanders, and a straight-line ephemeris fitted to part of the wander predicts the next transit with a confidence the wander does not deserve. The error is not noise and does not average down; it grows on the pair's super-period, it is many times the formal uncertainty within a year, and how soon it appears depends on which stretch of the wander happened to be observed. When a model that includes the known perturber still fails, the failure has a period, and the period is a planet.

    part 3 · exoplanets
  4. Io's eclipses, early at opposition and late at conjunction. The delay in the timing of Io's eclipses by Jupiter's shadow caused by the changing distance between the Earth and Jupiter, against days from an opposition, for circular orbits at 1 and 5.2026 AU. At opposition the two planets are closest and the eclipses arrive 8.3 minutes early against the average; 199 days later, near conjunction, they are furthest apart and arrive 8.3 minutes late. The whole swing, 16.6 minutes, is the time light takes to cross the diameter of the Earth's orbit, and the pattern repeats every 399 days, the synodic period. This is transit timing done on a moon in 1676, with a clock that ran on Io's 42.5-hour orbit and a residual that had nothing to do with Io.

    A transit late by the width of an orbit

    A transiting planet's clock can run fast and slow for a reason that has nothing to do with gravity acting on the planet. If its star is itself in orbit about a distant companion, each transit's light has further or less far to travel, and the timing wanders by the light-travel time across the star's orbit. It is the measurement that first showed light has a speed, made again on a different kind of clock.

    part 4 · exoplanets
  5. 5 perturbers that draw one 58-day timing signal. Every perturbing planet that gives a 3-day transiting planet the same timing signal — a sinusoid with a 57.8-day super-period and an amplitude of 1.27 minutes — placed wide of the nearest first-order commensurabilities inside and outside its orbit, with its mass found by integrating until the amplitude matched. outside, near 4:3 at 4.070 days needs 7.6 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 3.1 m/s; outside, near 3:2 at 4.620 days needs 12.0 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 4.8 m/s; outside, near 2:1 at 6.329 days needs 25.6 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 9.2 m/s; inside, near 3:2 at 1.966 days needs 6.9 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 3.7 m/s; inside, near 2:1 at 1.462 days needs 45.8 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 26.7 m/s. The period ratio is along the bottom on a logarithmic axis and the required mass up the side. A super-period fixes the distance from some resonance and not which resonance it is, and the amplitude then fixes a mass for each guess — so the timing alone returns a list rather than a planet. The velocity semi-amplitudes differ by a factor of 8.5 across the list, which is one of the two ways the list is shortened.

    One timing curve and five planets that could draw it

    A transiting planet whose times wander at a 58-day period, by just over a minute, is being pulled by something — but the period says only how far from some resonance the pull comes, not from which. Perturbers inside and outside the orbit, near four different commensurabilities, each with its own mass, reproduce the same curve to a fraction of a per cent. Timing alone returns a list, and even the detail that shortens it hides a coincidence of its own.

    part 5 · exoplanets
  6. A 10 Earth-mass Trojan started 10° from its point, seen in the planet's transits. A Jupiter-mass planet on a 4-day orbit about a 1 solar-mass star, with a 10 Earth-mass companion started 10 degrees beyond the leading Lagrange point of the same orbit, integrated for 160 days. Above, the angle between the companion and the planet as seen from the star: it swings about 60 degrees, between 51.1 and 70.3, with a period of 48.5 days measured off the curve, against 49.8 from the small-amplitude formula P/√(27μ/4). Below, the planet's own transit times minus a straight line: they swing by ±300.0 seconds at the same period, because the planet and the companion orbit their common centre of mass and the companion's libration moves that centre along the orbit. The companion shares the planet's period exactly, so it produces no timing signal at any orbital period of its own and would not transit on a schedule distinct from the planet's; the libration period is the only clock it has.

    A companion on the same orbit, seen in the planet's clock

    A body sharing a planet's orbit at one of its Lagrange points has the planet's period exactly, so no search for periodic dips or wobbles can find it at a period of its own. It shows instead in two ways the planet's own signals carry — a slow swing of the transit times at the companion's libration period, and a fixed offset between the planet's transit and its star's velocity curve.

    part 6 · exoplanets

All series