Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Chaos — where it appears

Sensitive dependence on initial conditions, in which nearby trajectories separate exponentially and a prediction acquires an expiry date. In the solar system it arises from the overlap of neighbouring resonances rather than from any added ingredient.

Named by 2 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A separation of 10⁻¹⁰ becomes 0.0285. The distance between two copies of Burrau's problem, started 10⁻¹⁰ apart in one coordinate of one body and then stepped in lockstep — one loop, one step size, both states advanced by it — for 60 time units. The vertical axis is logarithmic, so the straight stretch is exponential growth, and its slope is the Lyapunov exponent: 0.3413 per time unit, fitted over the 604 samples lying between ten times the starting offset and a tenth of the system's own size. That is an e-folding every 2.93 time units, so the separation multiplies by ten every 6.75 and by 7.8·10⁸ across the whole run. It has not saturated within the drawn interval: the growth rate over the last tenth of the run is still 0.6002 per time unit, 176% of the fitted exponent, and the separation has reached only 0.90% of the system's own size. The exponent is what sets a prediction horizon, and this run is drawn short of it on purpose: the straight line is the measurement, and the flat part that follows is arithmetic about how far apart two bounded systems can get.

A prediction with an expiry date

The inner solar system's Lyapunov time is about five million years, so a centimetre of error becomes an orbit in a hundred million. The ephemeris dies while the system survives — because the elements stay bounded when the phase does not, and only one of those is what stability means.

gravitation · Chaos Two equilibria become four, and three worlds sit near the join. The Cassini equilibria of a spin axis, drawn against the ratio of its own precession rate to the rate at which its orbit plane turns, for an orbit inclination of 1.5 degrees. Each column of dots is the full set of obliquities at which the two precessions keep step at that ratio, found by root-finding rather than by tracing a remembered curve. Below α cos ε/|g| = 1.135 there are two such obliquities and above it there are four, and the figure checks both counts on either side of the join. The three marked bodies are placed by their own measured precession constants: the Earth with the Moon at 2.67, safely on the four-state side; the Earth without it at 0.86; and Mars at 1.06. Two of the three sit within a few tenths of the bifurcation, which is the whole reason their obliquities are not constants: near the join the equilibria are close together, the libration around them is wide, and a body pushed between neighbouring resonances wanders. The Moon's contribution to the Earth's precession constant is what moves the first mark away from that region, and the second mark is the same planet with that contribution removed. This is a two-frequency model of a many-frequency system, and the real chaos comes from the overlap of resonances it does not contain.

A tilt that is not a constant

The Earth's axis leans by 23.4 degrees, and that lean is what makes the seasons. It is also a dynamical variable with its own equilibria, its own resonances and its own chaos — and on Mars the same variable has swung between nearly zero and sixty degrees without anything having to happen.

sky · Obliquity

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Secular resonanceCassini stateDynamical ellipticityInvariable planeLibrationLyapunov timeMilankovitch cyclesNodal precessionNumerical integrationObliquityOrbital elementsOrbital inclination

All concepts