Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Lyapunov exponent — where it appears

The rate at which two nearby trajectories of a dynamical system diverge, so that a small difference grows as the exponential of the exponent times the time. Its inverse is the horizon beyond which a prediction from imprecise initial conditions loses all skill.

Named by 3 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

How fast an error in the departure grows, near a neck and on a conic. How much a small error in a spacecraft's velocity is magnified in its later position — the largest singular value of the block of the state-transition matrix that maps velocity errors to position errors, in the Earth–Moon system's units — against time in days, integrated from the variational equations of the restricted three-body problem. A trajectory held at the L1 point between the two bodies (blue) amplifies errors exponentially, by a factor of e every 1.48 days — the rate the linearised dynamics there predict, 2.932 in the system's units, which the integration reproduces to within two per cent. A two-body circular orbit at half the separation (green), integrated the same way with the second body's mass switched off, amplifies them only secularly — an error in speed is an error in period, and that grows along the track in proportion to time. Over 14 days the neck has multiplied an error by 2,359; the conic by 9.

A trajectory with no good first guess

A trajectory designed from conics is corrected onto the real one by Newton's method, and the method works because the arrival depends on the departure only polynomially. Near a Lagrange point the dependence is exponential: every day and a half near the Earth–Moon neck multiplies an error by e. The first guess has to be exponentially good, the digits of the departure run out in weeks, and the only cure is to stop treating the trajectory as one piece.

spaceflight · Patched conics Sixty futures that began a trillionth apart. The momentum of the standard map at K = 3, a kicked rotor whose phase space is almost entirely chaotic, for 60 members started 10⁻¹² apart in angle, against iteration. For 41 iterations they are one trajectory; then the separation, growing by a factor of about 2.0 each step, reaches the size of the system and they become independent random walks. Three of the 60 cross the threshold at |p| = 90 within 400 iterations (dark), the stand-in for an orbit that goes unstable. Which members cross is decided by differences far below anything that could be measured; how many cross is a property of the dynamics, and it is the only thing the ensemble can be asked for.

A probability for a system with one future

The Solar System will do one thing, and an integration of it is wrong about which thing within a hundred million years. What long integrations report instead is a probability — one per cent that Mercury's orbit goes unstable before the Sun dies — and a probability of a single event is a strange object. It is a count over an ensemble of futures that differ by less than anything measurable, which makes sense only because chaos makes those futures independent; and how many of them are needed is a binomial question with an unforgiving answer for rare events.

gravitation · Numerical integration A rare crossing reached in stages. Multilevel splitting on a kicked rotor (the standard map at K = 10), aimed at the event |p| > 450 within 400 iterations. 16 members are run until each reaches the first level or runs out of time; those that reach it are copied back up to 16, each copy restarted from its parent's crossing point with its angle nudged by a thousandth of a radian, and run on toward the next. The levels (dashed) are not fixed values of |p| but curves that rise as time runs out, so a member counts as closer to the event only if it has the time left to finish. 4 levels; the fractions passing them are 0.13, 0.06, 0.63, 0.88, and their product, 0.0043, is the estimate. Each stage is a common event; the rare one is never waited for.

A rare event reached by cloning the near misses

Counting how often an ensemble of integrations goes unstable works for an event of one in a hundred and becomes hopeless for one in a million, because a ten per cent answer needs a hundred events and so a hundred million futures. Splitting gets there by a different route: wait for the members that come closest, copy them, and run the copies on. Each stage measures a common event and the rare one is a product of common ones — provided the copies forget their parents and the stages know how much time is left.

gravitation · Numerical integration

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Binomial statisticsChaosEnsembleNumerical integrationSolar system stabilityStandard mapDifferential correctionInvariant manifoldLagrange pointsMultiple shootingPatched conicsRare event sampling

All concepts