Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Hubble tension — where it appears

The disagreement between the expansion rate measured from the local distance ladder and the rate inferred from the microwave background. It is about eight per cent and several standard deviations, it has survived a decade of scrutiny, and it is stated most usefully as a disagreement about the sound horizon.

Named by 7 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

H₀: nine determinations in two families. Published determinations of H₀, each with its quoted one-sigma interval, sorted into two families — measured locally, in the late universe, against inferred from z ≈ 1100 through a model. The shaded band behind each family is that family's inverse-variance weighted mean: 72.66 ± 0.75 across 5 of them, against 67.40 ± 0.41 across 4. The difference is 5.26 ± 0.85 km/s/Mpc, which is 6.2 standard deviations, computed here from the quoted errors alone. That number is an upper bound on the significance rather than the significance: the determinations within each family share calibrations, samples and in two cases the same supernovae, so they are not independent, and a correlated pair combines to something wider than the formula used here gives. What the figure does establish is that the split is not one discrepant measurement against a consensus — it is two internally consistent groups, and the grouping is by method rather than by result.

The same constant, measured twice, five sigma apart

Cepheids and supernovae give an expansion rate of about 73 kilometres per second per megaparsec. The microwave background gives 67.4. Both quote errors near one per cent, both have been rebuilt from scratch by rival teams, and the gap between them has grown as the measurements have improved.

cosmology · Hubble constant Take 8 per cent off the horizon and the tension is gone. The Hubble constant against the sound horizon at recombination, along the locus the microwave background's measured angular scale fixes. What is measured is an angle — the angular size of the horizon, to a part in three thousand — and an angle is a length divided by a distance, so extracting an expansion rate requires the length. That length is computed from the physics of the first four hundred thousand years: the baryon density, the radiation density, the number of relativistic species and the recombination history. Change any of those and the locus is unchanged while the point on it moves. The horizontal band is the late-universe measurement from the distance ladder, and it meets the locus at 136 megaparsecs — 8 per cent shorter than the standard model gives. That is the arithmetic behind every proposal to resolve the disagreement by changing the early universe rather than the late one.

A constant that is an angle divided by a length

The microwave background does not measure an expansion rate. It measures one angle — the apparent size of the sound horizon at recombination — to a part in three thousand, and converting that angle into a rate requires the horizon's physical length, which is computed from a model of the first four hundred thousand years rather than observed.

cosmology · Hubble constant A clumped plasma recombines earlier. The fraction of hydrogen still ionised against redshift, decreasing to the right, on a logarithmic axis, from Peebles's three-level atom: for a smooth plasma (solid), and for one whose baryons are clumped into two equal volumes at 1.71 and 0.29 times the mean density, a clumping factor of 0.5 (thick dashed, averaged by mass; thin dashed, each zone alone). Recombination goes as the density squared, so the dense zone recombines first and carries most of the mass; the average ionisation falls through one half at redshift 1292 instead of 1273, and at redshift 1100 it is 0.123 against 0.145. The photons cannot see the individual patches, which are smaller than their mean free path; they see only the average, and the average recombines earlier.

A field that would have moved the ruler

A magnetic field left over from the early universe, too weak to matter to any galaxy, could still have pushed the baryons into small clumps before the universe became transparent. Clumped hydrogen recombines earlier, the sound waves in the plasma stop sooner, and the ruler that the microwave background is read with comes out shorter — which raises the Hubble constant the background implies, in the direction of the disagreement that has resisted every other explanation.

cosmology · Primordial fields The Hubble constant the microwave background implies, with an early component. The Hubble constant that keeps the microwave background's measured angular sound horizon fixed, against the peak fraction of early dark energy at z = 3500, with the baryon density held at its standard value and the matter fraction at the 0.315 that late-time distances measure, so that the dark-matter density rises with the Hubble constant. With none, it is 67.4 km/s/Mpc and the horizon 144.3 Mpc. At 5 per cent it is 68.7; at 10 per cent 70.2, with the horizon at 138.5 Mpc; the local value of 73 is reached at 19 per cent. The shrinkage of the horizon is what raises the constant: a shorter ruler at the same angle must be nearer, and nearer at a fixed matter fraction means faster expansion. The extra dark matter this requires is the cost the published fits also find: at the value that reaches 73, the physical matter density is 18 per cent higher than in the standard model.

A ruler shortened by something already gone

The microwave background gives the Hubble constant only through a computed length, the distance sound travelled before the universe became transparent. Add a component of energy that exists for a few thousand years before recombination and then vanishes faster than radiation, and the universe expands a little faster while the sound is travelling, the ruler comes out a few per cent shorter, and the inferred expansion rate rises toward the local value. The price is paid in dark matter and in the finest details of the oldest light.

cosmology · Hubble constant How far a sample of lenses can take the Hubble constant. The fractional uncertainty in H₀ from a sample of N lenses, both axes logarithmic: the independent errors of each lens — 2 per cent from its delay, 3 from the rest of its lens model, 2.5 from its line of sight and its own mass sheet as well as its kinematics fix it — fall as 1/√N; the shared errors — 1 per cent from the calibration of the line of sight, and the orbital bias of the previous figure — do not. With one aperture dispersion per lens the independent error is 10.1 per cent per lens and the floor 1.6 per cent, reached at about 42 lenses; with six resolved rings per lens, 5.9 and 1.1 per cent, reached at about 29. Dotted: the two floors. A sample that adds lenses without changing how each is measured stops improving at its floor; the resolved kinematics lower both the slope's starting point and the floor.

A hundred lenses and one assumption

A time-delay lens gives the Hubble constant to five or ten per cent, and the hope is that a hundred give it to one. The errors that differ from lens to lens — its delay, its own line of sight, its own internal sheet — do average away. The errors every lens shares because every lens was analysed the same way do not, and they set a floor that a sample reaches after a few dozen lenses and never goes beneath.

galaxies · Strong lensing How deep a hole the Hubble tension needs, and how deep holes are. The typical departure of the matter density from the mean, averaged over a sphere — one standard deviation, σ, from the linear power spectrum with σ₈ = 0.81 — against the sphere's radius, both on logarithmic axes. It falls from 0.55 at 20 Mpc to 0.022 at 300 Mpc. A local expansion rate 8.3 per cent above the global one, the size of the Hubble tension, needs the sphere the supernovae sample to be underdense by 0.47 (dashed), with a growth rate of 0.53. Across the radii the supernovae span (shaded, 100–600 Mpc) that is 4 to 67 standard deviations.

A hole too deep for the sky to have made

If the Milky Way sat inside a vast underdense region, everything around it would be expanding faster than the universe as a whole, and the locally measured Hubble constant would come out high — which is what Cepheids and supernovae find. The idea needs no new physics. It needs a void about half empty across the six hundred megaparsecs the supernovae sample, and the same cosmology that predicts the microwave background prices such a void at dozens of standard deviations.

cosmology · Hubble constant How far a wrong metallicity term moves the Hubble constant. The fractional change in the Hubble constant against the error in the adopted metallicity term, in magnitudes per dex, for supernova hosts whose Cepheids are 0.1, 0.2, 0.4 dex richer in metals than the geometric calibrators'. A term too weak (too close to zero) by 0.2 mag/dex with hosts 0.2 dex richer moves H₀ by 1.9%. The shaded band is the ±8% disagreement between the local measurement and the microwave background's prediction: reaching it with a 0.2-dex difference needs the term wrong by 0.9 mag/dex.

A metallicity term too small to close a gap

Cepheids of the same period are slightly brighter when they are richer in metals, by about a fifth of a magnitude per factor of ten in metal content. The galaxies whose supernovae calibrate the Hubble constant hold Cepheids a little richer than the galaxies whose distances are known geometrically, so the term enters the answer. How much it can move it is simple to compute: a few per cent at most for any plausible error — and the eight per cent separating the local Hubble constant from the early universe's would need the term to be wrong by four times its own size.

stars · Variable stars

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Hubble constantSound horizonRecombinationCepheid variableEarly dark energyInverse distance ladderPeriod luminosity relationStandard rulerAcoustic peaksAngular scaleBaryon clumpingCosmic variance

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