Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Hubble constant — where it appears

The present rate of expansion, whose units are inverse time and which can therefore be read as an age, a length or a density. It is measured either from the local distance ladder or from the sound horizon seen in the microwave background, and the two routes disagree by five standard deviations.

Named by 16 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

GW150914: 33 Hz to 250 Hz in 0.22 seconds. The strain of GW150914 — two black holes — through the last 0.22 seconds before merger, computed from the quadrupole sweep at the chirp mass its fit returned, 28.716 solar masses, and drawn at the luminosity distance it returned, 440 megaparsecs. Two things rise together and neither is free to rise on its own: the frequency goes from 33 Hz to 250 Hz, and the envelope — the outer curve — grows by a factor of 3.9, because the amplitude goes as f^2/3 and nothing else in it changes over so short a span. The vertical axis is in units of 10⁻²¹, so the peak here is a fractional length change of about 2.9·10⁻²¹: over the four kilometres of an interferometer arm that is 1.2·10⁻¹⁷ metres, a thousandth of the width of a proton. The chirp mass is not fitted to the amplitude at all — it comes from the spacing of these zero crossings, which is why it is the best-determined number in the whole event and why the distance, which does come from the amplitude, is the worst.

A distance with no ladder under it

The frequency sweep of an inspiral fixes the chirp mass with no distance in it, and the amplitude then gives the luminosity distance directly, because one expression fixes both. That is a distance measured with nothing calibrated beneath it — and its error budget is one angle.

gravitation · Gravitational waves A delay of 81 days, and a sheet nobody can see that moves H₀ to 82.4. Above: the arrival-time surface of a lensed source, along the line through the lens. The curve is the Fermat potential in days — the geometric cost of taking a longer path, minus the gravitational cost of climbing out of the potential — and the images sit at its stationary points, at -1.20″ and 2.04″, which for an isothermal sphere is β ± θ_E. Fermat's principle is doing all of the work here: light does not take the shortest path or the quickest one, it takes every stationary one, and the number of images is the number of stationary points. The vertical distance between the two is 81 days, and it is measurable — the source is a quasar, quasars vary, and the same wiggle appears in one image and then the other. That single number carries an absolute distance: the delay is D_Δt/c times a dimensionless function of the lens model, and D_Δt goes as 1/H₀, so a monitoring campaign gives the Hubble constant with no calibrated distance beneath it. Below: the two light curves, shifted by exactly that delay. The dashed curve is the second image with the delay removed, and the agreement is the measurement. What the picture also shows is the reason the answer keeps moving. The second arrival-time curve is the same lens with a uniform sheet of convergence added and the source moved to compensate: every image sits at the same place, every flux ratio is the same, every image shape is the same, and the delay is λ = 0.85 times as long. A lens model fitted to positions alone cannot see the sheet, and inferring H₀ from the same delay under it gives 82.4 instead of 70 — a 15 per cent shift with no observable attached. Breaking it needs a mass measured some other way: the velocity dispersion of the deflector, or a count of everything else along the line of sight.

A distance measured with a stopwatch

The images of a lensed quasar sit at the stationary points of an arrival-time surface, and the height between two of them is a delay in days. That delay is proportional to a distance, and the distance is proportional to one over the Hubble constant — so a flickering quasar gives H₀ with no calibrated distance under it.

galaxies · Strong lensing Four expansion histories that agree exactly today. The scale factor against time, with the present at zero and every model normalised to a = 1 and an expansion rate of 67.36 km/s/Mpc there. That normalisation is the figure: four universes that are indistinguishable from a measurement made now, separated entirely by what is behind and ahead of them. Each curve is integrated from da/dt = aH₀E(a) rather than from its own closed form, so the four are compared through one routine. The age each implies is where its curve meets zero: empty (Ω = 0) 14.52 Gyr, matter only (Ω = 1) 9.68 Gyr, ΛCDM (Planck 2018) 13.80 Gyr, closed (Ω = 2) 8.29 Gyr. The empty universe's 14.52 Gyr is the Hubble time 1/H₀ exactly, which is what makes it the natural thing to measure an acceleration against. The closed model turns over and is stopped at its turnaround.

One number that is an age, a size and a density

The slope of the velocity–distance relation has units of inverse time, so it can be read as an age, multiplied by c to give a length, or squared to give a density. All three readings are natural, all three are quoted, and not one of them is the quantity it appears to be.

cosmology · Hubble constant H₀: nine determinations in two families. Published determinations of H₀, each with its quoted one-sigma interval, sorted into two families — measured locally, in the late universe, against inferred from z ≈ 1100 through a model. The shaded band behind each family is that family's inverse-variance weighted mean: 72.66 ± 0.75 across 5 of them, against 67.40 ± 0.41 across 4. The difference is 5.26 ± 0.85 km/s/Mpc, which is 6.2 standard deviations, computed here from the quoted errors alone. That number is an upper bound on the significance rather than the significance: the determinations within each family share calibrations, samples and in two cases the same supernovae, so they are not independent, and a correlated pair combines to something wider than the formula used here gives. What the figure does establish is that the split is not one discrepant measurement against a consensus — it is two internally consistent groups, and the grouping is by method rather than by result.

The same constant, measured twice, five sigma apart

Cepheids and supernovae give an expansion rate of about 73 kilometres per second per megaparsec. The microwave background gives 67.4. Both quote errors near one per cent, both have been rebuilt from scratch by rival teams, and the gap between them has grown as the measurements have improved.

cosmology · Hubble constant One amplitude, and every point on this curve fits it. The set of distances and inclinations that produce the same measured amplitude in one detector. A binary seen face-on radiates most strongly along its spin axis, so it can be twice as far away as an edge-on binary and still arrive with the same strain — the curve is (1 + cos²ι)/2 and the factor between its ends is exactly two. Nothing in a single detector's data distinguishes the two ends. What makes this worse rather than merely awkward is that the prior pulls the other way: an isotropically oriented population has half its members beyond 60 degrees, so most binaries really are closer to edge-on, and a posterior that combines a flat likelihood along this curve with that prior returns a distance biased low with an error bar that understates the range. The whole business of standard-siren cosmology is the business of cutting across this curve.

A distance tangled with an angle

A gravitational wave carries its own distance, with no ladder underneath it and nothing to calibrate. What it also carries, inseparably, is the orientation of the orbit that made it — and one detector cannot tell a nearby binary seen edge-on from one twice as far away seen face-on.

gravitation · Gravitational waves A sheet of mass that changes 32 km/s/Mpc and no image. The mass-sheet degeneracy, drawn as what it does and does not change. Adding a uniform sheet of convergence and rescaling the unobservable source position leaves every image position relative to the lens, every image shape and every flux ratio exactly as it was — the transformation is an exact symmetry of the lens equation, not an approximation. What it does change is the time delay between images, in proportion, so a Hubble constant inferred from a measured delay is multiplied by the inverse of the rescaling. Across the range of sheets that a plausible line of sight can supply, the inferred Hubble constant moves by 32 kilometres a second per megaparsec — which is larger than the disagreement between the early and late measurements the technique is meant to arbitrate. Nothing in the lensing data can fix it; the constraint has to come from the lens galaxy's stellar kinematics or from the environment along the line of sight.

A sheet of mass that changes nothing but the answer

A gravitational lens's images are unchanged by adding a uniform sheet of matter and rescaling the source. Every position, every shape and every flux ratio stays exactly as it was; only the time delays change, in proportion. So a Hubble constant measured from a delay is multiplied by a number the lensing itself cannot determine.

galaxies · Strong lensing Take 8 per cent off the horizon and the tension is gone. The Hubble constant against the sound horizon at recombination, along the locus the microwave background's measured angular scale fixes. What is measured is an angle — the angular size of the horizon, to a part in three thousand — and an angle is a length divided by a distance, so extracting an expansion rate requires the length. That length is computed from the physics of the first four hundred thousand years: the baryon density, the radiation density, the number of relativistic species and the recombination history. Change any of those and the locus is unchanged while the point on it moves. The horizontal band is the late-universe measurement from the distance ladder, and it meets the locus at 136 megaparsecs — 8 per cent shorter than the standard model gives. That is the arithmetic behind every proposal to resolve the disagreement by changing the early universe rather than the late one.

A constant that is an angle divided by a length

The microwave background does not measure an expansion rate. It measures one angle — the apparent size of the sound horizon at recombination — to a part in three thousand, and converting that angle into a rate requires the horizon's physical length, which is computed from a model of the first four hundred thousand years rather than observed.

cosmology · Hubble constant A path length recovered from two integrals of one cluster. The two line-of-sight integrands through an isothermal β = 0.67 cluster, each normalised to its own centre, against distance along the line of sight in core radii. The upper curve is electron density, which the Compton parameter integrates; the lower is density squared, which the X-ray surface brightness integrates. They are integrals of the same gas along the same line and they weight it differently — the half-width is 1.00 core radii for the linear one and 0.64 for the quadratic, and one core radius either side of the centre holds 51 per cent of the pressure signal against 82 per cent of the X-ray. That difference is the whole method. Two integrals with different powers of one unknown density, down one unknown path, are two equations in two unknowns: y₀ = 1.5·10⁻⁴ and a central X-ray surface brightness of 1.63·10⁻⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ give back a central density of 0.006 cm⁻³ and a physical core radius of 0.250 Mpc. Divide that length by the angular core radius the same cluster subtends, 54.2 arcseconds, and the answer is an angular-diameter distance of 952 Mpc — against the 952 Mpc the cluster was built at, which is the round trip this figure exists to close. Nothing in that chain is calibrated on a Cepheid, a supernova or a parallax. It is a length in centimetres measured against an angle.

A length in centimetres, measured against an angle

A cluster's hot gas offers two line integrals of the same electrons — one linear in density, one quadratic. Two equations in two unknowns give back the path length in centimetres, and a length divided by the angle it subtends is a distance that leans on no other distance measurement.

cosmology · Sunyaev zeldovich The Hubble constant the microwave background implies, with an early component. The Hubble constant that keeps the microwave background's measured angular sound horizon fixed, against the peak fraction of early dark energy at z = 3500, with the baryon density held at its standard value and the matter fraction at the 0.315 that late-time distances measure, so that the dark-matter density rises with the Hubble constant. With none, it is 67.4 km/s/Mpc and the horizon 144.3 Mpc. At 5 per cent it is 68.7; at 10 per cent 70.2, with the horizon at 138.5 Mpc; the local value of 73 is reached at 19 per cent. The shrinkage of the horizon is what raises the constant: a shorter ruler at the same angle must be nearer, and nearer at a fixed matter fraction means faster expansion. The extra dark matter this requires is the cost the published fits also find: at the value that reaches 73, the physical matter density is 18 per cent higher than in the standard model.

A ruler shortened by something already gone

The microwave background gives the Hubble constant only through a computed length, the distance sound travelled before the universe became transparent. Add a component of energy that exists for a few thousand years before recombination and then vanishes faster than radiation, and the universe expands a little faster while the sound is travelling, the ruler comes out a few per cent shorter, and the inferred expansion rate rises toward the local value. The price is paid in dark matter and in the finest details of the oldest light.

cosmology · Hubble constant Every curvature has a Hubble constant that leaves the peaks where they are. The Hubble constant a universe needs in order to put the acoustic peaks of the microwave background at the measured angle, against its spatial curvature Ωₖ, with the physical densities of baryons, matter and radiation held at their fitted values so that the sound horizon is unchanged. Along this line the angle θ* — the sound horizon over the distance to last scattering — is exactly constant and the peak positions do not move. The flat member has H₀ = 67.4 km/s/Mpc; a closed universe with Ωₖ = −0.044 needs 53.5, with a matter density of 0.50; an open one with Ωₖ = +0.010 reaches the locally measured 73. The peaks alone therefore measure a combination of curvature and expansion rate, not either one, and the statement that the universe is flat to a few parts in a thousand needs a second distance measured somewhere else.

A flatness that needs a second distance

The universe is said to be flat to two parts in a thousand, and the figure is usually credited to the microwave background. On its own the background measures one angle, and one angle fixes one distance — so every curvature has a Hubble constant that reproduces the peaks exactly. Flatness is where that line crosses a second measurement, and it is only as good as the crossing.

cosmology · Density parameters The end of the red giant branch, found as an edge. The luminosity function of a synthetic galaxy halo — the number of red giants against apparent magnitude in the I band, smoothed — and its derivative, which is what the edge detector computes, searched over the magnitudes brighter than the branch's crowded lower part, as every application of the method does. 1582 stars are drawn: red giants rising in number towards fainter magnitudes as ten to the 0.3 times the magnitude, ending at the tip at magnitude 24, with a sixth as many asymptotic giants thinning out above it, all measured with errors of 0.08 magnitudes. The derivative peaks sharply where the counts jump, here at 24.09 — 0.09 from the true tip. The red giant branch ends where helium ignites in a degenerate core of almost fixed mass, so the tip's absolute magnitude is close to −4.05 for old, metal-poor stars, and the edge's apparent magnitude is a distance.

An edge that needs no pulsation

The local measurement of the expansion rate rests on a calibration step, and for decades that step was the Cepheid variables. The tip of the red giant branch replaces it with an edge — the brightness at which old stars ignite helium, nearly the same in every galaxy — found by counting stars rather than modelling them. It gives a slightly lower expansion rate, and whether the difference is a flaw in one calibration or in both is the local half of the Hubble tension.

cosmology · Hubble constant Where one dispersion and a resolved profile leave the mass and the orbits. The plane of the mass-sheet parameter λ and the orbital anisotropy β. Light shading: the region within Δχ² = 2.3 of a mock lens with λ = 1 and β = 0.1, given one aperture dispersion measured to five per cent — a long diagonal valley, because a larger λ and more tangential orbits trade against each other. Dark shading: the same, given the dispersion in six rings between a quarter and two Einstein radii, each to three per cent. Marginalised over β with a flat prior, and with λ allowed between 0.8 and 1.15, the aperture measurement gives λ = 0.990 ± 0.091 and the resolved profile λ = 1.000 ± 0.040 — the Hubble constant from this lens to 9 and 4 per cent.

A dispersion that weighs the sheet only if the orbits are known

A lens's images cannot tell how much of its mass is in the galaxy and how much is spread through a sheet around it, and the time delay — and so the Hubble constant — scales with the answer. The stars' velocity dispersion can tell, because orbits feel mass in three dimensions where light only integrates along a line. One dispersion through one aperture weighs the sheet only to sixteen per cent, because the shape of the orbits moves it as much; the same dispersion measured in rings weighs it to four.

galaxies · Strong lensing How far a sample of lenses can take the Hubble constant. The fractional uncertainty in H₀ from a sample of N lenses, both axes logarithmic: the independent errors of each lens — 2 per cent from its delay, 3 from the rest of its lens model, 2.5 from its line of sight and its own mass sheet as well as its kinematics fix it — fall as 1/√N; the shared errors — 1 per cent from the calibration of the line of sight, and the orbital bias of the previous figure — do not. With one aperture dispersion per lens the independent error is 10.1 per cent per lens and the floor 1.6 per cent, reached at about 42 lenses; with six resolved rings per lens, 5.9 and 1.1 per cent, reached at about 29. Dotted: the two floors. A sample that adds lenses without changing how each is measured stops improving at its floor; the resolved kinematics lower both the slope's starting point and the floor.

A hundred lenses and one assumption

A time-delay lens gives the Hubble constant to five or ten per cent, and the hope is that a hundred give it to one. The errors that differ from lens to lens — its delay, its own line of sight, its own internal sheet — do average away. The errors every lens shares because every lens was analysed the same way do not, and they set a floor that a sample reaches after a few dozen lenses and never goes beneath.

galaxies · Strong lensing How deep a hole the Hubble tension needs, and how deep holes are. The typical departure of the matter density from the mean, averaged over a sphere — one standard deviation, σ, from the linear power spectrum with σ₈ = 0.81 — against the sphere's radius, both on logarithmic axes. It falls from 0.55 at 20 Mpc to 0.022 at 300 Mpc. A local expansion rate 8.3 per cent above the global one, the size of the Hubble tension, needs the sphere the supernovae sample to be underdense by 0.47 (dashed), with a growth rate of 0.53. Across the radii the supernovae span (shaded, 100–600 Mpc) that is 4 to 67 standard deviations.

A hole too deep for the sky to have made

If the Milky Way sat inside a vast underdense region, everything around it would be expanding faster than the universe as a whole, and the locally measured Hubble constant would come out high — which is what Cepheids and supernovae find. The idea needs no new physics. It needs a void about half empty across the six hundred megaparsecs the supernovae sample, and the same cosmology that predicts the microwave background prices such a void at dozens of standard deviations.

cosmology · Hubble constant How far a wrong metallicity term moves the Hubble constant. The fractional change in the Hubble constant against the error in the adopted metallicity term, in magnitudes per dex, for supernova hosts whose Cepheids are 0.1, 0.2, 0.4 dex richer in metals than the geometric calibrators'. A term too weak (too close to zero) by 0.2 mag/dex with hosts 0.2 dex richer moves H₀ by 1.9%. The shaded band is the ±8% disagreement between the local measurement and the microwave background's prediction: reaching it with a 0.2-dex difference needs the term wrong by 0.9 mag/dex.

A metallicity term too small to close a gap

Cepheids of the same period are slightly brighter when they are richer in metals, by about a fifth of a magnitude per factor of ten in metal content. The galaxies whose supernovae calibrate the Hubble constant hold Cepheids a little richer than the galaxies whose distances are known geometrically, so the term enters the answer. How much it can move it is simple to compute: a few per cent at most for any plausible error — and the eight per cent separating the local Hubble constant from the early universe's would need the term to be wrong by four times its own size.

stars · Variable stars The flow round the Local Group, shell by shell. Radial velocity against distance from the Local Group's centre today, for spherical shells of matter in a standard expanding background with the cosmological constant, round a group whose mass inside the zero-velocity surface is 1×10¹² M☉, 2×10¹² M☉, 4×10¹² M☉. Inside the zero-velocity radius — 0.79 Mpc, 1.00 Mpc, 1.26 Mpc — the shells are falling in; outside it they recede, slowly at first and then at the Hubble rate (dashed, 67.7 km/s per Mpc). At 1.5 Mpc the three groups give 75, 57, 30 km/s against 102 for an undisturbed flow; by 5 Mpc the curves differ by 10 km/s and have nearly rejoined the line. The group's pull is written into the first two or three megaparsecs of the flow, and only there.

A flow too quiet for the lumps it runs between

The galaxies within ten megaparsecs of the Milky Way recede almost exactly as the Hubble law says, scattering about it by a few tens of kilometres a second. The matter they move through is lumpy at the factor-of-several level, and elsewhere galaxies move relative to their neighbours at three hundred. The quiet is a measurement, it limits what the group's own pull can be read from, and it says something about the place rather than about the law.

cosmology · Hubble constant

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Hubble tensionThe mass-sheet degeneracyTime-delayCepheid variableDegeneracyLine of sight structureSound horizonStellar kinematicsAge of the universeConvergenceCosmic varianceCritical density

All concepts