Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Radial-velocity — where it appears

The component of a body's velocity along the line of sight, measured from the shift of its spectral lines. Reaching a metre a second means removing thirty kilometres a second of the observer's own motion and then confronting a floor that is the star's own surface.

Named by 33 essays across 5 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Two bodies at a mass ratio of 3 to 1. Both bodies orbit their common centre of mass, on similar ellipses whose sizes are in inverse proportion to the masses — here 3 to 1, so the heavier body's path is 3 times smaller.

Neither body is still, and the wobble is how planets are found

A planet does not orbit its star. Both orbit a point between them, and the star's share of that motion is small, measurable, and the reason thousands of planets are known.

gravitation · The two-body problem One path, five numbers. Left: the apparent path of a star over 4 years, with a proper motion of 193 mas a year and a parallax of 50 mas, at ecliptic latitude 42°. It is one curve and there is nothing in the sky it can be compared against — the reference stars have paths of their own. Right: the same path with a straight line taken out of it. What is left is an ellipse of semi-major axis 50.0 mas and semi-minor axis 33.5 mas, closed and repeating once a year. The two are separated by their time signatures and by nothing else: proper motion is secular and parallax is annual, in a phase the Earth's position fixes in advance. That is why the five parameters can be told apart at all, and why an astrometric catalogue quotes five rather than two — a position without them is a position at one instant, which is not a direction to anything.

Five numbers from one wiggle

A star's path across a plate is a straight line with a one-year ellipse laid on it. Nothing measures either alone — one fit yields five parameters at once, and they are separable only because their time signatures differ.

sky · Parallax The same spectrum, at rest and at 900 km/s. A set of absorption lines at rest and shifted by a radial velocity of 900 km/s. The displacement is proportional to wavelength, so the reddest line here moves 2.06 nm and the bluest 1.18 nm — which is why the measured quantity is the ratio Δλ/λ and not a distance.

A shift in a line is a speedometer, and it works at any distance

A spectral line has a wavelength fixed by physics. Measuring where it actually arrives gives the source's speed toward or away — and the measurement does not degrade with distance.

starlight · The Doppler effect A 28.7 km/s correction, and a 12.5 m/s planet underneath it. Two years of radial velocities of a star at ecliptic latitude 12°, orbited by a companion whose reflex semi-amplitude is 12.5 m/s — the Sun's own, from Jupiter. The upper panel is what the spectrograph measures: the Earth's motion about the barycentre of the solar system, amplitude 28.72 km/s, which is V⊕ cos β to a fraction of a per cent. The planet is in that curve and is 2,297 times smaller than it, which is a line thinner than the stroke it is drawn with. The lower panel is the same data after the correction, and the correction is not a fit: it is computed from an ephemeris, the observatory's position on a rotating deformable Earth, and the star's own coordinates and proper motion. To leave a centimetre a second it has to be right to one part in 2.9·10⁶ — the light-travel time across the Earth's orbit, the relativistic terms, and the fact that the star moves are all inside that budget. What remains is the planet, at 4333 days, and a scatter of 1.2 m/s that is the star rather than the instrument.

The metre per second that is not the star

A line shift is a speedometer, and the speed it reads is mostly the observer's. Getting to a metre a second means removing thirty kilometres of the Earth's own motion to a part in three million, and then confronting a floor that is the star's own surface rather than the instrument.

starlight · The Doppler effect Leavitt's law, through the Milky Way calibrators. Mean absolute magnitude against the logarithm of the pulsation period, for classical Cepheids with independently known distances, and RR Lyrae itself for comparison. The line is M = −2.81 log P − 1.43: a tenfold longer period is 2.81 magnitudes brighter, a factor of 13 in luminosity. The vertical axis runs the astronomers' way, with brighter upward.

A star that tells its distance by how slowly it blinks

Some stars pulsate, and the slow ones are the bright ones. That single correlation turns a clock into a ruler, and it is how the size of the universe was first measured.

stars · Variable stars Two radial-velocity curves, and one mass ratio. The line-of-sight velocity of each star through one orbit of AI Phoenicis. Both curves are computed from the two masses and the period; what a spectrograph delivers is the reverse. The ratio of the amplitudes is the inverse ratio of the masses — 48.2 to 50.3 kilometres a second, so the heavier star moves more slowly — and the sum of the amplitudes with the period gives the mass sum, 2.437 solar masses, once the inclination is known from the eclipses.

The only stars whose masses are known

A star's mass cannot be measured by looking at it. It can be measured by watching two stars pull on each other, and if the pair also eclipses, the same observations give both radii as well — with no stellar model anywhere in the chain. A few hundred such systems calibrate everything else.

stars · Binary stars The wobble of a star with a circular companion. The star's velocity along the line of sight, over two orbits, computed from the companion's orbit. A circular orbit gives a sine wave; an eccentric one gives a skewed curve whose shape encodes the eccentricity.

The star moves, and the mass is a lower bound

A planet is found by watching its star fall towards it. The wobble gives a mass multiplied by the sine of an angle nobody has measured — and the shortfall is not a rounding error.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity A 6.2 m s⁻¹ signal at the rotation period, made by no planet at all. Above: the apparent radial velocity of a star carrying one dark spot over 0.4 per cent of its disc, rotating with an equatorial velocity of 3.2 km s⁻¹, over 3 rotations — and beside it a circular-orbit planet of the same period fitted to the same amplitude, 6.2 metres a second. That amplitude is several times the precision of a modern spectrograph and squarely inside the range in which warm sub-Neptunes are claimed, so the two are competing on equal terms. The spot signal is not a sinusoid: the spot is in view for half the rotation and hidden for the other half, so the curve is truncated, and its power at half the period is 1.16 of its power at the period. A Keplerian orbit at the same period has none there at all. Below: the diagnostic that actually settles it. A planet moves the whole spectrum bodily, so every line keeps its shape and the bisector — the locus of midpoints up a line profile — does not move; a spot removes light from one side of the profile, so the bisector tilts in step with the velocity and against it. The two clouds correlate at -0.92 and 0.14. What the picture cannot show is why this took so long to become routine: measuring a bisector to a few metres a second needs a signal-to-noise ratio of several hundred per spectrum, so for two decades the diagnostic existed and could not be applied to the faint stars the interesting claims were about.

A planet that was the star's own rotation

A dark spot rotating across a star removes light from the approaching limb and then the receding one, and the line centroid moves. That is several metres a second at the rotation period, from no planet at all — and two of the most celebrated nearby planets were withdrawn on exactly this evidence.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity A 27.5 m/s velocity the star does not have. Left: a rotating stellar disc, approaching on one side and receding on the other, with the chord a planet of 0.1 stellar radii takes across it at impact parameter 0.5 and a sky-projected obliquity of 0°. Right: the apparent radial velocity that results, computed by covering the disc cell by cell — the flux hidden at each phase and its mean line-of-sight velocity — rather than from a fitted formula. The star's centre of mass does not move at any point in this: the anomaly is entirely a statement about which parts of the line profile are missing. Its amplitude is 27.5 m/s at v sin i = 4.5 km/s, and the two numbers are related by the depth of the transit, since blocking a fraction f of light of mean velocity v shifts a flux-weighted centroid by f·v. The curve is antisymmetric about mid-transit to 0.00% of its own amplitude, which is what an aligned transit gives: equal time on the blue half and the red. Limb darkening is included at u = 0.6, and it matters: it weights the hidden light towards the centre of the disc, where the rotation velocity is smallest.

A velocity measured from a shape

A transiting planet hides part of a rotating disc, so the star's line profile loses a slice at one velocity and its fitted centroid moves. The star has not moved at all — and the lopsidedness of that motion is the whole measurement of whether the orbit lies in the star's own equatorial plane.

exoplanets · Spin–orbit alignment 4000 lines averaged into one profile, and 2.3 m/s out of it. A cross-correlation function: the average absorption profile obtained by shifting a mask of 4000 line positions across a spectrum and summing what falls under it. The faint curves behind are individual lines, each with its own depth, its own width and its own small offset; the heavy curve is what averaging them produces. The velocity is the position of the peak, and its precision is the width divided by the contrast, the signal-to-noise and the square root of the number of lines — 2.3 metres a second here. Nothing about this construction is a measurement of any one line. It is a measurement of where a weighted average of thousands of them sits, and the weights are a choice: a mask built for one spectral type applied to another weights the disagreement between the lines differently, and moves the peak.

A velocity that is an average of lines that disagree

A radial velocity measured to a metre a second is not measured from a line. It is the position of the peak of a cross-correlation against a mask of thousands of lines, and those lines do not agree with each other by hundreds of metres a second — because each one forms at a different depth in an atmosphere that is boiling.

starlight · The Doppler effect Three perturbing masses drawing one curve. Transit-timing residuals for three systems whose perturbing planets are 12, 8, 5 Earth masses — a factor of 2.4 apart — each given the inner-planet eccentricity that the near-resonant theory says will compensate: 0.0000, 0.0166, 0.0363. The three curves have amplitudes of 1.7, 1.7, 1.7 minutes, within 0 per cent of each other, and they are drawn by three separate integrations that were told nothing about the theory used to pick the eccentricities. The eccentricity enters the near-resonant term divided by Δ, the fractional distance from exact resonance — here 0.0267 — so a hundredth of an eccentricity does the work of a factor of two in mass. This is why a transit-timing mass is not a mass until something else fixes the eccentricity, and why the masses that came out of the first years of such fits were systematically lower than the radial-velocity masses of the same planets.

A mass that is only a mass once the eccentricity is known

The near-resonant part of a transit-timing signal carries the perturber's mass and the pair's free eccentricity in the same bracket, divided by the distance from resonance. A hundredth of an eccentricity therefore does the work of a factor of two in mass, and three quite different systems draw one curve.

exoplanets · Transit timing Io's eclipses, early at opposition and late at conjunction. The delay in the timing of Io's eclipses by Jupiter's shadow caused by the changing distance between the Earth and Jupiter, against days from an opposition, for circular orbits at 1 and 5.2026 AU. At opposition the two planets are closest and the eclipses arrive 8.3 minutes early against the average; 199 days later, near conjunction, they are furthest apart and arrive 8.3 minutes late. The whole swing, 16.6 minutes, is the time light takes to cross the diameter of the Earth's orbit, and the pattern repeats every 399 days, the synodic period. This is transit timing done on a moon in 1676, with a clock that ran on Io's 42.5-hour orbit and a residual that had nothing to do with Io.

A transit late by the width of an orbit

A transiting planet's clock can run fast and slow for a reason that has nothing to do with gravity acting on the planet. If its star is itself in orbit about a distant companion, each transit's light has further or less far to travel, and the timing wanders by the light-travel time across the star's orbit. It is the measurement that first showed light has a speed, made again on a different kind of clock.

exoplanets · Transit timing 5 perturbers that draw one 58-day timing signal. Every perturbing planet that gives a 3-day transiting planet the same timing signal — a sinusoid with a 57.8-day super-period and an amplitude of 1.27 minutes — placed wide of the nearest first-order commensurabilities inside and outside its orbit, with its mass found by integrating until the amplitude matched. outside, near 4:3 at 4.070 days needs 7.6 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 3.1 m/s; outside, near 3:2 at 4.620 days needs 12.0 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 4.8 m/s; outside, near 2:1 at 6.329 days needs 25.6 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 9.2 m/s; inside, near 3:2 at 1.966 days needs 6.9 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 3.7 m/s; inside, near 2:1 at 1.462 days needs 45.8 Earth masses and would move the star by K = 26.7 m/s. The period ratio is along the bottom on a logarithmic axis and the required mass up the side. A super-period fixes the distance from some resonance and not which resonance it is, and the amplitude then fixes a mass for each guess — so the timing alone returns a list rather than a planet. The velocity semi-amplitudes differ by a factor of 8.5 across the list, which is one of the two ways the list is shortened.

One timing curve and five planets that could draw it

A transiting planet whose times wander at a 58-day period, by just over a minute, is being pulled by something — but the period says only how far from some resonance the pull comes, not from which. Perturbers inside and outside the orbit, near four different commensurabilities, each with its own mass, reproduce the same curve to a fraction of a per cent. Timing alone returns a list, and even the detail that shortens it hides a coincidence of its own.

exoplanets · Transit timing A 10 Earth-mass Trojan started 10° from its point, seen in the planet's transits. A Jupiter-mass planet on a 4-day orbit about a 1 solar-mass star, with a 10 Earth-mass companion started 10 degrees beyond the leading Lagrange point of the same orbit, integrated for 160 days. Above, the angle between the companion and the planet as seen from the star: it swings about 60 degrees, between 51.1 and 70.3, with a period of 48.5 days measured off the curve, against 49.8 from the small-amplitude formula P/√(27μ/4). Below, the planet's own transit times minus a straight line: they swing by ±300.0 seconds at the same period, because the planet and the companion orbit their common centre of mass and the companion's libration moves that centre along the orbit. The companion shares the planet's period exactly, so it produces no timing signal at any orbital period of its own and would not transit on a schedule distinct from the planet's; the libration period is the only clock it has.

A companion on the same orbit, seen in the planet's clock

A body sharing a planet's orbit at one of its Lagrange points has the planet's period exactly, so no search for periodic dips or wobbles can find it at a period of its own. It shows instead in two ways the planet's own signals carry — a slow swing of the transit times at the companion's libration period, and a fixed offset between the planet's transit and its star's velocity curve.

exoplanets · Transit timing Three biases against eccentricity, and they do not agree. Four quantities against orbital eccentricity, each relative to a circular orbit of the same semi-major axis, averaged over the argument of periastron. The transit probability rises as (1 − e²)⁻¹, because an eccentric planet spends part of its orbit inside its own semi-major axis: at e = 0.5 a transit is 1.33 times as likely. The transit duration falls as √(1 − e²), so the event carries less signal-to-noise, and the two together — probability times the square root of the time in transit — come to 1.24 at the same eccentricity. They very nearly cancel, and that is the surprise: a transit survey has almost no eccentricity bias at all. The radial-velocity curve is the one that does. A Keplerian of eccentricity e puts less of its variance in the fundamental and more into harmonics no sinusoidal search is looking at — 68 per cent remains at e = 0.6 and 47 per cent at e = 0.8 — so a velocity survey loses amplitude exactly where a transit survey does not. What no figure here can show is which of these the measured eccentricity distribution is made of, because the correction depends on a detection pipeline rather than on geometry, and the two surveys have to be corrected separately before their answers can be compared.

Every method prefers a circle, and not for the same reason

A transit is more likely on an eccentric orbit and shorter when it happens, and the two very nearly cancel. A velocity curve loses amplitude to harmonics no sinusoidal search is looking at, and that one does not cancel at all.

exoplanets · Detection bias How many planets a star has is the hardest thing a catalogue measures. The multiplicity distribution a transit catalogue would contain, for systems that all truly hold 5 planets, at four mutual inclination dispersions. 40,000 systems are drawn per dispersion with an isotropic viewing direction and Rayleigh-distributed inclinations about a common plane, at semi-major axes of 12, 16, 21, 27, 34 stellar radii; the bars are conditioned on at least one planet transiting, which is what makes a system appear in a catalogue at all. At 0.5° of dispersion 33 per cent of the detected systems show all 5 planets and the mean apparent multiplicity is 3.13; at 10° it is 1.39, with 68 per cent of them showing exactly one. Every one of those systems has 5 planets. The entire difference between a catalogue of singles and a catalogue of compact multiples is one number that nothing in the light curve measures. And the two effects run in opposite directions: the fraction of stars showing any planet RISES with the dispersion — 8%, 9%, 12%, 19% across the four — because scattering the orbits gives more of them a chance to cross the line of sight, while the number seen per detected star falls by a factor of 2.2. A survey that scatters its systems finds more stars with planets and fewer planets per star, and neither number on its own says which has happened. What no figure here can show is the true dispersion, because the observable is the ratio of those two and a system with fewer planets and a tighter plane reproduces it exactly.

How many planets a star has is not a measurement

Draw five thousand identical five-planet systems, scatter their orbital planes by half a degree, and a third of the detections show all five. Scatter them by ten degrees and two thirds show exactly one. Every system has five.

exoplanets · Detection bias One eccentric planet, drawn as two circular ones. Top: the velocity of a star with one companion on an orbit of eccentricity 0.25 (argument of periastron 0.9 radians), in units of its semi-amplitude K, over two orbits — and on top of it the sum of two circular orbits, one at the same period and one at half of it, fitted by taking the first two terms of the exact curve's Fourier series. The second orbit's amplitude comes out at 0.246 of the first, which is the eccentricity to first order. Bottom: the difference between the two, on a scale 12 times magnified; its largest excursion is 0.0889 K and its rms 0.0473 K, second order in the eccentricity. For a planet with K = 30 m/s that is 1.42 m/s rms — below the noise of most instruments — so an eccentric single planet and a pair of planets in a 2:1 period ratio are the same measurement unless the data are good enough to see a term of order e².

One eccentric planet, or two circular ones

The velocity curve of a star with one planet on an eccentric orbit is, to first order in the eccentricity, exactly the curve of two planets on circular orbits with periods in the ratio two to one. The difference between the two readings is a term in the eccentricity squared, and for the modest eccentricities most planets have, it is smaller than the noise.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity An exposure time chosen by the star. The fraction of a star's p-mode velocity signal that survives averaging over an exposure of the length on the horizontal axis, for an envelope of modes centred on νₘₐₓ with the stated width. The dashed curve is a single oscillation at νₘₐₓ = 3.1 mHz, a period of 5.4 minutes: it averages to exactly zero after one period and at every multiple. The solid curve is the real case, a band of modes 1.2 mHz wide, which cannot all be nulled at once: its first minimum is at 5.8 minutes, where 15% of the rms survives, and beyond it the residual falls only as one over the exposure time. Short exposures on bright stars sample the oscillations rather than averaging them, which is why a bright star observed quickly can be noisier than a faint one observed slowly.

An exposure time chosen by the star

A Sun-like star's surface rings at five minutes and boils on timescales from ten minutes to a day, and each of those motions shifts its spectral lines by more than the nine centimetres a second an Earth would. The ringing can be averaged away by an exposure tuned to the star; the slowest boiling cannot be averaged away within a night at all, and it sets the number of nights an Earth twin costs.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity How planet occurrence rises with the host star's iron, by kind of planet. Planet occurrence relative to its value at solar metallicity, on a logarithmic axis, against the host star's iron abundance [Fe/H] (zero is the Sun; one unit is a factor of ten). Each class is a power law, occurrence ∝ 10^(β[Fe/H]). Giant planets within a few astronomical units follow β = 2, the relation found in the first large radial-velocity survey to measure it: 12 per cent of stars at [Fe/H] = +0.3 have one, against 3 per cent at solar and under 0.3 per cent at −0.5 — a factor of 158 across the range drawn. The small planets found by transits rise far more gently; the slopes drawn, β = 0.5 for sub-Neptunes and 0.2 for super-Earths, are representative of published fits, which range from nearly flat to about a doubling across this interval depending on orbital period.

A threshold that makes iron matter only to giants

A star with twice the Sun's iron is four times as likely to have a giant planet, and barely more likely to have a small one. The steep law and the flat one look like two mechanisms. A core racing its disc, run over a spread of discs, produces both — steep where winning is rare, flat where it is common.

exoplanets · Occurrence rates A Cepheid's velocity, radius and angular size through two pulsation cycles. Three curves for a model Cepheid with δ Cephei's period of 5.37 days and a mean radius of 44 solar radii, at 272 parsecs, through two cycles. Top: the radial velocity of its spectral lines, in km/s, oscillating about the star's own velocity of -16.8 km/s — negative is towards the observer, so the surface is expanding when the curve is lowest. Middle: the change in radius, from integrating that velocity over time and multiplying by the projection factor p = 1.3: a swing of 4.9 solar radii, 11 per cent of the star. Bottom: the angular diameter the same star presents, in milliarcseconds, swinging by 168 microarcseconds about 1.505. The middle and bottom curves have the same shape because they are the same motion — one in kilometres, one in angle — and their ratio is the distance.

A distance that rests on one unmeasured number

A pulsating star's swelling can be measured twice — in kilometres from the Doppler shift of its lines, and in milliarcseconds by an interferometer — and the ratio is its distance, with no calibration against any other star. Except one: the factor that turns a line's velocity into the speed of the surface, which geometry puts at 1.33 to 1.5, measurement puts at 1.2 to 1.35, and every distance carries in proportion.

stars · Variable stars The evidence for a period, one trial period at a time. The natural logarithm of the Bayes factor for a sinusoid at each trial period against no signal, for 120 radial velocities spread over 359 days with 2.0 m/s white noise per point and a planet of semi-amplitude 1.0 m/s at 11.3 days. The amplitude prior is Gaussian with scale 3.0 m/s in each component. At the planet's period the evidence is 14.4 — odds of about 1.8·10⁶ to one — and almost everywhere else it is near zero or negative, because a sinusoid that fits nothing is penalised for the amplitude range it wasted. The quantity that answers the question "is there a planet at some period" is not the peak but the average of the Bayes factor over the prior on the period, here uniform in the logarithm of the period from 1.5 to 1,000 days, and that average is ln B = 7.7: 6.7 lower than the peak, the Bayesian form of the look-elsewhere penalty, paid because the data had to find the period as well as the amplitude.

Odds for a planet that depend on a guess about its size

A false-alarm probability asks how often noise alone would produce a peak this tall. A Bayes factor asks something better — how much more probable the data are with a planet than without one — and pays for it with two numbers nobody measured. The width allowed for the period barely matters. The width allowed for the amplitude can turn strong evidence into none, from the same velocities.

starlight · Periodograms Giant planets per logarithmic interval of orbital distance, and who can see where. Giant planets (a third of Jupiter's mass to thirteen Jupiters) per star per unit of the natural logarithm of orbital distance, against distance, round Sun-like stars. The curve is a broken power law representative of the long radial-velocity surveys: rising as a^0.8 to a peak at 3 AU and falling beyond it as a^−1, which integrates to 2.7 per cent of stars inside 1 AU and 12 per cent in all. The shaded bands are where each method has the sensitivity to measure it: radial velocities out to about 7 AU, where two decades of monitoring cover one orbit, and direct imaging beyond about 10 AU, where a young giant can be separated from its star. The peak sits near the outer edge of the radial-velocity window, where a planet has completed one or two orbits in the data, and the fall beyond it lies entirely outside that window — so the peak's position is where the two methods have to be joined rather than a place either can measure alone.

A peak that neither survey can see alone

Giant planets become commoner with distance from their star out to a few astronomical units, and then rarer. The rise is measured by radial velocities and the fall by direct imaging, and the peak between them sits where neither method is comfortable.

exoplanets · Occurrence rates Where the velocity information in a spectrum lies. Above: a 600 km/s stretch of two synthetic spectra with the same continuum of 10000 photons per pixel at a resolving power of 100,000 — a cool, slowly rotating star, with 12 lines per nanometre, and a hot star rotating at 25 km/s, with 3 lines per nanometre. Below: the velocity information each pixel carries, (dA/dv)²/A, which is zero in the continuum and at line centres and largest on the steep flanks of deep, narrow lines. Summed over 100 nanometres of spectrum, the first star measures its velocity to 1.61 m/s and the second to 39.17 m/s — 24 times worse from the same number of photons. The photons that measure a velocity are the ones on the sides of lines; the continuum, however bright, contributes nothing.

The photons on the sides of the lines

A spectrum measures a star's velocity only through the slopes of its absorption lines. The continuum, however bright, carries no information at all, and a star with many deep, narrow lines gives a velocity twenty times more precise than a hot, fast-rotating one from the same number of photons.

starlight · The Doppler effect Amplitudes measured near the noise, against the amplitudes that were there. A simulated survey of 6000 stars, each with one planet whose true radial-velocity semi-amplitude K is drawn from a population rising towards small amplitudes (dN/d ln K ∝ K^−0.6, from 0.2 to 20 m/s), each measured with an amplitude uncertainty of 0.6 m/s; 1500 are drawn. Across: the true amplitude; up: the amplitude fitted at the planet's period; both logarithmic. The dashed diagonal is a perfect measurement; the horizontal line is the detection threshold, 4 times the uncertainty. Points above it are the detections (filled). Well above the threshold they sit on the diagonal; near it they sit above it — the detections within one unit of the threshold have measured amplitudes 1.33 times their true ones on average — and below it the measured amplitudes stop falling at all, because an amplitude is a length and noise alone gives it about 0.75 m/s.

A prior the survey measures through its own noise

Whether a weak periodic signal is a planet depends on how large planets are expected to be, and the best source for that expectation is the population the surveys themselves have measured. But the population's small end is built from the marginal detections whose reality depends on the prior. Breaking the circle means measuring the population and the planets together, with the noise and the threshold written into the model — and doing it that way changes the answers by factors of two where they matter most.

starlight · Periodograms Two models through the same points, one with a planet. 60 simulated velocities over 200 days of a star rotating every 25 days, with spot activity drawn from a quasi-periodic process of 3 m/s amplitude and a 40-day decay, white noise of 1 m/s, and a planet of 2.5 m/s semi-amplitude on a 27.0-day orbit — 1.08 times the rotation period. Two models are fitted, each with its activity amplitude and decay time chosen by maximum likelihood: activity plus the planet (solid), whose planet comes out at 3.3 m/s, and activity alone (dashed), which has no planet in it. Both pass through the points; the likelihoods differ by 3.6 in the logarithm, a ratio of 34.9, which is not decisive. Near the rotation period a flexible model of the star can carry the planet's signal by itself.

A model of the star that can carry the planet

Starspots are modelled as correlated noise with the star's rotation period built in, and the model is good enough to remove signals that would otherwise be announced as planets. It is also good enough to remove planets. Near the rotation period no amount of data in one season separates the two, and away from it a flexible noise model quietly takes most of the evidence a planet would have had.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity The red velocity against the blue one. Simulated velocities of two stars, each measured simultaneously in a blue channel at 0.45 micrometres (across) and a red one at 0.8 (up), with 0.6 m/s of noise in each. One star (filled) has a 4 m/s planet on a 9.3-day orbit: its points lie along the diagonal, slope 0.97, because a Doppler shift is the same velocity in every colour. The other (open) has no planet and a spot 900 K cooler than its 5100 K photosphere, rotating every 12 days and evolving: its points lie along a shallower line, slope 0.64, which is the ratio of the spot's contrasts in the two channels. Neither star's blue velocities alone say which it is. The flux-deficit spot model is the simplest case; a spot whose signal is mostly suppressed blueshift lies closer to the diagonal.

A planet has one velocity in every colour

A Doppler shift moves every line in a spectrum by the same velocity, because it is the whole star that moves. A starspot does not move anything; it removes light, and how much light it removes depends on the colour it is seen in. Measuring the velocity in the blue and the red at once separates the two in a single night — until the star's magnetic field, which grows more visible towards the red, takes part of the separation back.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity Curvature turns a curve into an island. The companions — separation across, mass up, on edge-on circular orbits — that fit simulated velocities of a star with a 12 Jupiter-mass companion at 22 AU (period 103 years), within a Δχ² of 6.18 of the best fit, for observing spans of 6, 12, 24 years with 60 velocities of 2 m/s noise each. Over 6 years the data show a slope and the allowed region is a long band along M ∝ a², spanning 3.3 decades in mass. As the span grows the curvature of the orbit appears, and the band contracts — to 1.0 decades at 24 years — towards the true companion. Inclined orbits, which the fit leaves out, would extend every region to higher masses.

A slope that is a whole curve of companions

A companion on an orbit longer than the observations shows in a star's velocity only as a steady drift. A drift is one number, an acceleration, and an acceleration is a mass divided by the square of a distance — so a planet at ten astronomical units and a brown dwarf at fifty produce the same straight line. Turning the line into a companion needs the orbit to bend, a picture, or the other two components of the acceleration.

exoplanets · Reflex velocity The Sun's motion, written across a group of stars. Proper motions of 400 stars all at 300 pc, against their angle from the solar apex, each with its own random velocity of 25 km/s in every direction. Filled dots are the component along the great circle away from the apex, υ; open dots are the component at right angles to it, τ. One star's υ is dominated by its own motion — the scatter is 17.6 mas/yr against a reflex of at most 13.7 — so no single star gives a distance. Together the υ components follow the Sun's reflex, 19.5 km/s times sin λ, and the fitted amplitude, 13.70 ± 1.06 mas/yr, gives a distance of 300 pc ± 8 per cent against the true 300 pc. The τ components scatter about zero at every angle, because the Sun's motion has no part across the great circle.

A baseline that grows four astronomical units a year

The Earth's orbit gives a parallax a baseline of two astronomical units and never more. The Sun's own motion through the nearby stars gives one that lengthens by four a year without limit — but the stars move too, by as much, so the long baseline yields a distance only for a group whose motions average away, and for a century it was the only way to reach past a few hundred parsecs.

starlight · Parallax The companion's mass against the visible star's, for f = 6.08 M☉: never below 6.08, and 7.3 M☉ for a 0.7 M☉ star seen edge-on. The mass of the unseen companion against the mass of the visible star, both in solar masses, for a mass function of 6.08 M☉, at inclinations of 90°, 70°, 55°. Every curve starts at or above 6.08 when the visible star weighs nothing and rises as it gets heavier, because a heavier visible star moves less for the same companion. For a visible star of 0.7 solar masses — V404 Cygni's donor is a cool subgiant of about that mass — the companion is 7.3 M☉ at 90°, 8.6 M☉ at 70°, 12.4 M☉ at 55°. The shaded band is the range of neutron-star masses, up to about 2.3 M☉; no curve comes near it. A mass function above that limit is a proof that the companion is too heavy to be a neutron star, without knowing the inclination or the visible star's mass at all.

A floor under the unseen companion

A star that swings back and forth in velocity with nothing visible beside it is orbiting something. One velocity curve gives one number about the something — the mass function — and that number is not an estimate of its mass but a floor under it, reached only if the visible star weighed nothing and the orbit were seen exactly edge-on. When the floor stands higher than any neutron star can, the companion is a black hole, whatever the inclination turns out to be.

gravitation · The two-body problem A spot's mark on a line, and how much of it a shift explains. Above: the disc-averaged profile of one absorption line from a star rotating at 5 km/s, observed at a resolution of 100,000, without (dashed) and with (solid) a dark spot 8° in radius at latitude 20°, 70 per cent darker than the surrounding surface, on the receding side of the disc. Below, magnified 185 times: the change the spot makes (blue), the part of it a pure Doppler shift of the whole line would make (orange, a shift of −36.3 m/s), and what is left over (green). The spot removes light from the velocity at which its own surface is moving, putting a bump into the line where it was darkest. Most of the change, 92 per cent of its square, looks like a shift; 8 per cent does not, and that remainder is the only part of the spot's signal a spectrum could tell apart from a planet.

A spot a slow star hides inside its velocity

A dark spot on a rotating star removes light from one part of each spectral line, and the line's centre seems to move: a velocity of metres per second that no planet caused. In principle the spot betrays itself, because it changes the line's shape and a planet does not. In practice the betrayal is a few per cent of the signal on a star that rotates as slowly as the Sun, and seeing it takes a signal-to-noise of hundreds per pixel across thousands of lines.

starlight · The Doppler effect One parabola, two causes. Transit times of a planet on a 1.0914-day orbit over 12 years, minus the best straight-line ephemeris, with timing errors of 30 seconds — the shape a period shrinking by 29 milliseconds a year produces, a parabola 116 seconds deep. The curve is drawn once because it is the same curve for both explanations: an orbit decaying at that rate, or a star accelerating towards the observer at 2.9e-6 m/s², which shortens the light-travel time to each successive transit by the same steadily growing amount. Nothing in the transit times can tell them apart.

A clock that slows, or a star that falls

Transit times that curve away from a straight line can mean a planet's orbit is shrinking — the tides draining it into its star — or that the star itself is accelerating along the line of sight under a distant companion's pull. Both draw the same parabola, and the transit times cannot choose. The star's velocities can, but only for the shortest orbits: the acceleration that would fake a given decay grows as one over the period, and beyond a day or two an unseen Saturn can mimic more decay than the tides produce.

exoplanets · Transit timing A peak that follows the snow line inwards. Giant planets per star per unit of ln a against orbital distance, for stars of 0.3, 0.6, 1, 1.5 solar masses, if the peak's position scales as the 1 power of the star's mass — snow line, young star's luminosity. The shape is the broken power law measured round Sun-like stars, rising as a⁰·⁸ and falling as a⁻¹, with its height scaled in proportion to the star's mass as the giants' overall rate is. The peaks sit at 0.9 AU, 1.8 AU, 3.0 AU, 4.5 AU: a 0.3-solar-mass star would have its giants piled up 3.3 times closer in than the Sun's. The dots mark each peak.

A peak that should move with the star

Round Sun-like stars, giant planets are commonest at about three astronomical units, close to where water first froze in the disc. If the snow line put them there, the peak should sit closer in round smaller stars — three times closer round a star of a third of the Sun's mass. Every hypothesis agrees about the Sun, which is why the Sun-like stars cannot test them; and one of them makes a Jupiter at the peak wobble its star by the same angle whatever the star's mass.

exoplanets · Occurrence rates Lines from the lit face follow the star that cannot be seen. Radial velocity against orbital phase, over two orbits, for a binary like Sco X-1 — period 0.787 days, a 1.4 M☉ neutron star, a donor of 0.42 M☉, inclination 40°. The donor itself is drowned by the light of the accretion disc and is not seen. The narrow components of the Bowen blend, emitted by the donor's face lit by X-rays, move in phase with the donor but with 109 km/s rather than the 139 km/s of its centre, because the lit face lies on the side nearer the neutron star. The neutron star moves in antiphase at 42 km/s, a motion the broad lines of the disc track only roughly. Measuring the narrow lines' amplitude puts a lower limit on the donor's velocity.

A wavelength coincidence that weighs a neutron star

An ionised helium atom and a twice-ionised oxygen atom happen to have lines a sixtieth of an ångström apart in the far ultraviolet, close enough that one absorbs the other's light. The oxygen then glows in a cascade of visible lines, and so, by a second coincidence, does nitrogen. In a bright X-ray binary that glow comes from the face of the companion star turned towards the X-rays — a star otherwise lost in the light of its accretion disc — and its Doppler shifts trace the companion's orbit, weighing the neutron star it circles.

starlight · The Doppler effect

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

BarycentreConvective blueshiftOccurrence rateSelection effectStarspotStellar jitterTransit timing variationAstrometryDegeneracyDoppler shiftSemi-amplitudeStellar activity

All concepts