Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Signal-to-noise — where it appears

The ratio of a measured quantity to the uncertainty in it, which for a photon count grows as the square root of the count. Reaching a given value costs time proportional to the square of it, so improving a measurement by a factor of ten costs a hundred times the exposure.

Named by 6 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

What the error bar is made of, on a 1 m in 60 s. The four contributions to a photometric error, against the brightness of the star, for a 1-metre aperture, a 60-second exposure and a sky of 21 magnitudes per square arcsecond. The star's own photons give a line of slope exactly 0.2 — σ ∝ N^−1/2 and N ∝ 10^−0.4m, so a magnitude of extra faintness costs a fifth of a magnitude of precision, and no instrument changes that. The sky and the read noise are fixed counts, so their lines have slope 0.4, twice as steep, and they overtake the star at V = 18.25 — that crossing is the faint limit of the night, and it moves when the Moon rises rather than when the telescope changes. Scintillation is flat, because the atmosphere modulates a bright star and a faint one by the same fraction: at 4.09e-4 relative it is 0.44 millimagnitudes here and it is what caps the bright end, up to about V = 10.8. Below all of them is the systematic floor at 0.3 millimagnitudes, which is flat-fielding and colour terms and does not integrate down at all.

The error bar that comes from counting

A brightness is a number of photons, so the precision of the measurement is fixed before any instrument is chosen. What follows is a slope of exactly 0.2 magnitudes of error per magnitude of star, a slope of 0.4 once the sky wins, and a floor that neither of them explains.

starlight · Photon noise What each method can see. Planet mass against orbital distance, both logarithmic, with the detection threshold of each method drawn as the boundary it actually is. Radial velocity at 1 m/s needs mass rising as √a; astrometry at 20 µas needs it falling as 1/a, which is the only method that gets easier further out; a 100 ppm transit is a threshold on radius and so a horizontal line at about 1.4 Earth masses, cut off at 1.21 AU by the need for three transits in 4 years; direct imaging begins outside the diffraction limit, 0.6 AU at 10 parsecs for a 39 m aperture at 10 µm. The solar system is drawn on top: for two decades every one of its planets except Jupiter lay outside every region, which is the whole of what the early census was measuring.

Every survey draws a different sky

The first exoplanets found were enormous and impossibly close to their stars. That was not a discovery about planets. It was a measurement of what a 10 m/s spectrograph watching for three years is able to see.

exoplanets · Detection bias What comes back is a ramp, not a threshold. Detection efficiency against signal-to-noise: the fraction of synthetic transits injected into real photometry that the pipeline afterwards finds. The measured curve is a gamma cumulative distribution of shape 4.65 and scale 0.98 beginning at 4.1, which is the form a survey's own injection tests are fitted with; the dashed line is the step at 7.1 that a threshold calculation assumes instead. Half the injections are recovered at 8.33, 1.2 units above the nominal threshold — the ramp is a property of the search and the cut is a separate decision, so the two need not meet anywhere in particular. The rest of the disagreement is the area between the curves. The pipeline does not reach 99 per cent efficiency until 14.9, four units above the threshold, and it recovers 45 per cent one unit above it. Over a population whose signal-to-noise falls as s^-2 — which is what a planet population looks like, because there are far more small planets than large ones — the step function counts 1.21 times as many detections as the ramp does. That factor is not an error bar. It multiplies every occurrence rate computed without it, and it is larger for the small planets than for the large ones, because the small ones live where the ramp is.

The threshold that is not a threshold

A survey's detection limit is quoted as a number — seven point one — and a pipeline does not behave that way. Half the injected signals come back at the threshold, and full efficiency arrives four units above it.

exoplanets · Detection bias Three biases against eccentricity, and they do not agree. Four quantities against orbital eccentricity, each relative to a circular orbit of the same semi-major axis, averaged over the argument of periastron. The transit probability rises as (1 − e²)⁻¹, because an eccentric planet spends part of its orbit inside its own semi-major axis: at e = 0.5 a transit is 1.33 times as likely. The transit duration falls as √(1 − e²), so the event carries less signal-to-noise, and the two together — probability times the square root of the time in transit — come to 1.24 at the same eccentricity. They very nearly cancel, and that is the surprise: a transit survey has almost no eccentricity bias at all. The radial-velocity curve is the one that does. A Keplerian of eccentricity e puts less of its variance in the fundamental and more into harmonics no sinusoidal search is looking at — 68 per cent remains at e = 0.6 and 47 per cent at e = 0.8 — so a velocity survey loses amplitude exactly where a transit survey does not. What no figure here can show is which of these the measured eccentricity distribution is made of, because the correction depends on a detection pipeline rather than on geometry, and the two surveys have to be corrected separately before their answers can be compared.

Every method prefers a circle, and not for the same reason

A transit is more likely on an eccentric orbit and shorter when it happens, and the two very nearly cancel. A velocity curve loses amplitude to harmonics no sinusoidal search is looking at, and that one does not cancel at all.

exoplanets · Detection bias A bright star wants a wide aperture and a faint one wants 0.68 of the seeing. Signal-to-noise of simple aperture photometry against the aperture radius, in units of the seeing's full width at half maximum (1″), each divided by what optimal pixel weighting achieves for the same star, for stars of V = 12, 17, 20, 23 observed for 60 s through a 1 m telescope under a sky of 21 mag/arcsec². A small aperture loses starlight; a large one admits sky, and the balance depends on which dominates. For a bright star its own photons are most of the noise, so a wider aperture keeps gaining light almost for free and the best radius is large — 1.63 FWHM at V = 12, reaching 100.0 per cent of the optimum. For a star fainter than its sky the best radius shrinks to 0.680 FWHM and the best aperture reaches only 90.5 per cent of what weighting each pixel by its share of starlight divided by its variance achieves. That residual is exact in the background-limited limit: the best aperture captures 71.5 per cent of the light and 0.902 of the optimal signal-to-noise, so optimal weighting is worth 11 per cent in signal-to-noise, or 23 per cent in exposure time, and no more. The image is taken to be Gaussian; a real point-spread function has broader wings, which makes a fixed aperture a little worse and the optimal weights harder to know.

The best aperture throws away a tenth

Aperture photometry counts every pixel inside a circle equally and every pixel outside it not at all. For a faint star against its sky the best circle is two-thirds of the seeing wide, catches 71.5 per cent of the light, and reaches 90.2 per cent of the signal-to-noise that weighting each pixel by what it is worth achieves — a loss of 23 per cent in exposure time that no algorithm can beat by more.

starlight · Photon noise Where the photons stop mattering and the star starts. Noise in a 13-hour window — the length of an Earth-like planet's transit across a Sun-like star — against the star's brightness, for a space telescope that reaches 17 parts per million in 6.5 hours on a twelfth-magnitude star. Photon noise falls by a factor of ten for every five magnitudes of brightness; the star's granulation, averaged over the window, stays at 5.1 parts per million whatever the brightness. The two are equal at magnitude 10.1; brighter than that, the star is the floor. The dashed line is an Earth's transit depth across the Sun, 84 parts per million: a single transit on a twelfth-magnitude star is detected at 6.4 standard deviations, and on the brightest stars at no better than 17, set by the star alone — and supergranulation, spots and faculae add more on these timescales.

A floor the star sets for itself

Above the atmosphere, with comparison stars and a big enough telescope, every noise in a measurement of a star's brightness can be beaten down except one: the star's own surface, a mosaic of convective cells each brighter or fainter than the rest. That flicker does not average away against anything, and it is larger for stars that are bigger and puffier than the Sun. For the brightest stars, an Earth's transit is limited by the star, not the photons — and the stars Kepler watched turned out twice as noisy as the Sun.

starlight · Photon noise

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Photon noiseDetection thresholdSelection effectSurvey completenessAperture photometryDetection limitRead noiseSky backgroundTransit depthArgument of periastronBackground limitedConvection

All concepts