Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
The collection

Every essay — page 10

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 181–200 of 514.

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

The wobble of a star with a circular companion. The star's velocity along the line of sight, over two orbits, computed from the companion's orbit. A circular orbit gives a sine wave; an eccentric one gives a skewed curve whose shape encodes the eccentricity.

The star moves, and the mass is a lower bound

A planet is found by watching its star fall towards it. The wobble gives a mass multiplied by the sine of an angle nobody has measured — and the shortfall is not a rounding error.

8 figures · Reflex velocity Mass against radius, and what lies between the curves. Planetary radius against mass on logarithmic axes, in Earth units, with composition curves computed from interior models rather than drawn through the points. The solid-planet curves are R ∝ M^(1/3.7) — flatter than a constant density because a heavier planet compresses itself — and the hydrogen curve turns over near three Jupiter masses, where degeneracy pressure takes over and adding mass makes the planet smaller. A mass alone or a radius alone places a planet on a line; only both together place it between two curves, and that is the whole argument for measuring a planet twice.

Two methods, and one density

A transit gives a radius. A wobble gives a mass. Neither says what a planet is made of, and the two together say it in one number — which is the only reason both are worth doing on the same object.

8 figures · Planet composition A 6.2 m s⁻¹ signal at the rotation period, made by no planet at all. Above: the apparent radial velocity of a star carrying one dark spot over 0.4 per cent of its disc, rotating with an equatorial velocity of 3.2 km s⁻¹, over 3 rotations — and beside it a circular-orbit planet of the same period fitted to the same amplitude, 6.2 metres a second. That amplitude is several times the precision of a modern spectrograph and squarely inside the range in which warm sub-Neptunes are claimed, so the two are competing on equal terms. The spot signal is not a sinusoid: the spot is in view for half the rotation and hidden for the other half, so the curve is truncated, and its power at half the period is 1.16 of its power at the period. A Keplerian orbit at the same period has none there at all. Below: the diagnostic that actually settles it. A planet moves the whole spectrum bodily, so every line keeps its shape and the bisector — the locus of midpoints up a line profile — does not move; a spot removes light from one side of the profile, so the bisector tilts in step with the velocity and against it. The two clouds correlate at -0.92 and 0.14. What the picture cannot show is why this took so long to become routine: measuring a bisector to a few metres a second needs a signal-to-noise ratio of several hundred per spectrum, so for two decades the diagnostic existed and could not be applied to the faint stars the interesting claims were about.

A planet that was the star's own rotation

A dark spot rotating across a star removes light from the approaching limb and then the receding one, and the line centroid moves. That is several metres a second at the rotation period, from no planet at all — and two of the most celebrated nearby planets were withdrawn on exactly this evidence.

10 figures · Reflex velocity A magnification, and a spike inside it. The brightness of a background star as a foreground one passes in front of it. The smooth curve is exact: a point mass magnifies a point source by (u² + 2)/(u√(u² + 4)), which peaks at 6.7 for this track. The spike is the planet, of mass ratio 0.001, lensing one of the two images. Its duration is the Einstein time scaled by √q — about 23 hours against 30 days — so the whole planetary signal is a few hours in an event lasting a month, and it never repeats. The deviation is drawn in the approximation that the planet lenses the image in isolation; a real caustic crossing has structure this smooths over, and its true height is set by the source's size rather than by the geometry.

A star magnified by a planet nobody will see again

Microlensing weighs a planet by the way its gravity bends light around it. The measurement lasts a few hours, cannot be repeated, and is the only one that does not require the planet's star to be visible at all.

9 figures · Microlensing Contrast against separation, which is where direct imaging lives. Planet-to-star brightness ratio against apparent separation, both logarithmic, for a system 10 parsecs away. The reflected-light curves are A_g(R_p/a)² and fall as the inverse square of the orbit; the thermal curve is the ratio of two Planck functions at 10 µm and does not, which is why every imaged planet so far is young and hot rather than merely large. The vertical lines are diffraction limits λ/D — nothing inside a telescope's own line is reachable by it at any contrast at all. An Earth at ten parsecs sits at 6.3e-10, which is 4 orders of magnitude below the faintest planet yet imaged. The four imaged planets are plotted at their measured near-infrared contrasts rather than at 10 µm, because the near infrared is the band they were found in — which is itself part of the argument, since a young planet is hot enough to be bright where its star is not.

Nine orders of magnitude, half an arcsecond apart

Photographing a planet is not a resolution problem. It is a contrast problem, and the contrast is set by an inverse square that punishes exactly the planets a telescope can most easily separate.

9 figures · Direct imaging What each method can see. Planet mass against orbital distance, both logarithmic, with the detection threshold of each method drawn as the boundary it actually is. Radial velocity at 1 m/s needs mass rising as √a; astrometry at 20 µas needs it falling as 1/a, which is the only method that gets easier further out; a 100 ppm transit is a threshold on radius and so a horizontal line at about 1.4 Earth masses, cut off at 1.21 AU by the need for three transits in 4 years; direct imaging begins outside the diffraction limit, 0.6 AU at 10 parsecs for a 39 m aperture at 10 µm. The solar system is drawn on top: for two decades every one of its planets except Jupiter lay outside every region, which is the whole of what the early census was measuring.

Every survey draws a different sky

The first exoplanets found were enormous and impossibly close to their stars. That was not a discovery about planets. It was a measurement of what a 10 m/s spectrograph watching for three years is able to see.

9 figures · Detection bias A gap where planets should be. The number of planets per star per interval of log radius, for orbital periods under a hundred days, corrected for detection efficiency. There are two peaks — super-Earths near 1.3 R⊕ and sub-Neptunes near 2.4 R⊕ — and a deficit between them at 1.89 R⊕, where the occurrence falls to 33% of the peak. The gap is not a gap in what can be detected: detection efficiency rises smoothly through it, so a smooth underlying distribution could not produce a dip there.

The planets that were not seen

An occurrence rate is a count divided by a probability, and the probability can be a five-hundredth. Everything difficult about saying how common planets are lives in that denominator.

9 figures · Occurrence rates A gap where planets should be. The number of planets per star per interval of log radius, for orbital periods under a hundred days, corrected for detection efficiency. There are two peaks — super-Earths near 1.3 R⊕ and sub-Neptunes near 2.4 R⊕ — and a deficit between them at 1.89 R⊕, where the occurrence falls to 33% of the peak. The gap is not a gap in what can be detected: detection efficiency rises smoothly through it, so a smooth underlying distribution could not produce a dip there.

A gap in a histogram that says how planets are built

Between the super-Earths and the sub-Neptunes there is a radius at which planets are markedly rarer. The gap is not a gap in what can be detected, and its slope with orbital period names the process that made it.

8 figures · Radius valley A transit that will not keep time. Transit times of a planet of 8 Earth masses on a 3-day orbit, minus the best straight line through them, from a three-body integration in which the second planet at 4.62 days is the only thing perturbing it. The residual swings by ±1.7 minutes and repeats over 58 days — the super-period 1/|3/P₂ − 2/P₁|, which is long precisely because the pair is near the 3:2 resonance and gets longer the nearer it is. The amplitude is proportional to the perturbing planet's mass, so fitting this curve weighs a planet that may never transit at all. The short jagged component is not noise: it is the chopping signal, one kick per conjunction at the 8.6-day synodic period, sampled once every 3 days by the transits themselves and so barely above the rate at which it can be followed. The integration conserved energy to 1.6e-10.

Planets found by a transit running late

A planet on a fixed orbit transits like a clock. A second planet pulling on it makes the clock run fast and slow by minutes — and fitting that wander weighs a planet that may never cross the star at all.

8 figures · Transit-timing Everything close in is circular, and nothing else has to be. Orbital eccentricity against period for fifteen real planets, with the tidal circularisation boundary computed from τ_e = (2/21)(Q′/n)(M_p/M⋆)(a/R_p)⁵ for a Jupiter with Q′ = 1e+6 and an age of 3 billion years. It falls at 4.5 days, and the reason it is a wall rather than a slope is the fifth power: at half the period the timescale is 91 times shorter. Nothing inside it has a measurable eccentricity, and outside it eccentricities run to 0.95 — which is the number to hold on to, because a planet on a 0.93 orbit at 111 days comes within 0.030 AU of its star at periastron, closer than Mercury, and is being circularised as it is observed.

A planet where one cannot form

A Jupiter at four days orbits inside a region that was too hot to hold ice and too small to hold the material. It did not form there — and the distribution of eccentricities says which of two journeys brought it in.

10 figures · Planet migration Libration and circulation of a resonant angle. The critical angle of a resonance over time, integrated from the pendulum equation it obeys. Below the separatrix the angle oscillates about a fixed value — the body is locked; above it, the angle runs without bound and the body is not.

A chain that could not have been assembled in place

Seven planets whose successive period ratios are all close to small whole numbers. Capture into a resonance requires the orbits to converge slowly, and converging slowly is something planets can only do in a disc.

9 figures · Resonance A radius that depends on the colour it is measured in. Transit depth against wavelength for a planet of 1.38 Jupiter radii at 1400 K, whose atmosphere has a scale height of 538 km — computed from H = kT/µg, not assumed. One scale height of extra opacity adds 153 parts per million to a transit of 1.40 per cent, so the whole spectral signal is 862 ppm at its strongest: one part in 16 of the transit that carries it. The features are at real band centres — sodium at 0.589 µm, water at 1.4 µm, carbon dioxide at 4.3 µm — with the rise at the blue end the Rayleigh slope of scattering off the smallest particles.

A radius that depends on the colour it is measured in

Measure a transit in one colour and then another, and the planet is a different size. The difference is a few atmospheric scale heights, which is a few hundred parts per million of an already tiny signal.

9 figures · Exoplanet atmospheres The habitable zone, and the radius inside which a day never ends. The conservative habitable zone — the runaway-greenhouse and maximum-greenhouse limits of Kopparapu's parameterisation — as a band in stellar mass against orbital distance, both logarithmic. For the Sun it runs from 0.99 to 1.71 AU, which is the published result and the check on the arithmetic here. The band moves inward far faster than the mass falls, because luminosity goes as roughly the fourth power of mass: a 0.2 M☉ star's zone is at 0.082–0.158 AU. The dashed line is the distance inside which a planet is tidally locked within 4.5 billion years, computed from τ = ω₀αmQa⁶/(3GM⋆²k₂R³) with an initial ten-hour spin, Q = 100 and k₂ = 0.3. It crosses the inner edge of the zone at 0.67 M☉ — so around every star below that, which is the great majority of stars, a planet in the habitable zone has one hemisphere in permanent daylight. The Earth is outside its own locking radius of 0.53 AU, and TRAPPIST-1e at 0.029 AU is inside its star's by a factor of 8.

One number sets the zone

The habitable zone is a band of stellar flux, so it scales as the square root of luminosity and moves inward far faster than mass falls. For most stars it lies inside the radius at which a planet is tidally locked.

9 figures · Habitable zone One whole orbit. The system's total brightness through one orbit: the transit at phase 0, the slow rise and fall of the planet's illuminated hemisphere between, and the secondary eclipse at phase 0.5 where the planet's own light is removed. The transit is 1.05%; the secondary eclipse is 1800 ppm, about 6 times shallower.

The planet is seen when it disappears

Half an orbit after the transit the planet passes behind its star, and the light that vanishes is the planet's own. Subtracting two brightnesses taken hours apart isolates a body nothing has ever resolved.

8 figures · Exoplanet atmospheres A 27.5 m/s velocity the star does not have. Left: a rotating stellar disc, approaching on one side and receding on the other, with the chord a planet of 0.1 stellar radii takes across it at impact parameter 0.5 and a sky-projected obliquity of 0°. Right: the apparent radial velocity that results, computed by covering the disc cell by cell — the flux hidden at each phase and its mean line-of-sight velocity — rather than from a fitted formula. The star's centre of mass does not move at any point in this: the anomaly is entirely a statement about which parts of the line profile are missing. Its amplitude is 27.5 m/s at v sin i = 4.5 km/s, and the two numbers are related by the depth of the transit, since blocking a fraction f of light of mean velocity v shifts a flux-weighted centroid by f·v. The curve is antisymmetric about mid-transit to 0.00% of its own amplitude, which is what an aligned transit gives: equal time on the blue half and the red. Limb darkening is included at u = 0.6, and it matters: it weights the hidden light towards the centre of the disc, where the rotation velocity is smallest.

A velocity measured from a shape

A transiting planet hides part of a rotating disc, so the star's line profile loses a slice at one velocity and its fitted centroid moves. The star has not moved at all — and the lopsidedness of that motion is the whole measurement of whether the orbit lies in the star's own equatorial plane.

8 figures · Spin–orbit alignment Two objects, the same 1.055 per cent, and only one of them a planet. A planet of 0.1027 stellar radii transiting at impact parameter 0.3, and a background eclipsing binary of radius ratio 0.62 whose 38 per cent eclipse is diluted by the target's light to 1.055 per cent — the same depth to nine decimal places, because the dilution was chosen to make it so. A blend contributing 2.7 per cent of the light in the aperture can manufacture any planetary depth at all, so the depth is not evidence about what produced it. Two things in the same photometry are. The ingress occupies 20.4 per cent of the planet's transit and 80.3 per cent of the blend's, a factor of 3.9: the shape of the shoulders is set by the radius ratio of whatever is actually eclipsing, and dilution scales a curve without changing its shape. And the duration with the period gives the mean density of the star being crossed — 1.41 g/cm³ here against 0.15, a factor of 9 — so a blend usually implies a host of a completely different kind from the one the spectrum shows. Neither test needs an observation the survey did not already make, and neither of them proves a planet: they reject specific alternatives, and what is left is a probability.

A planet that is never confirmed, only validated

A background eclipsing binary diluted by the target's light reproduces a planetary transit depth exactly, and no amount of better photometry separates the two. Most known planets are therefore the output of a probability calculation rather than a detection, and the honest statement about them is a statement about a false-positive rate.

9 figures · Transits Pluto and Triton sit on the nitrogen line, and the Earth sits between helium and nitrogen. Escape speed against exospheric temperature, with a criterion line for each molecular species at v_esc = 6 v_th — the speed at which the Jeans loss time is comparable to the age of the solar system. Every line has slope one half, because the thermal speed goes as √T; a body above a line keeps that gas and a body below it does not. The horizontal axis is the temperature at the exobase, which for the Earth is near 1000 K rather than the 255 K of its equilibrium — the difference is extreme-ultraviolet heating, and using the wrong temperature puts the Earth above the hydrogen line, keeping an atmosphere it observably lost. Three readings are worth making. The Earth falls between helium and nitrogen and does exactly that: it loses helium as fast as radioactive decay supplies it, and keeps nitrogen for ever. Titan sits just above nitrogen and just above methane, which is why it has a thick nitrogen atmosphere and is slowly losing its methane. And Pluto and Triton sit on the nitrogen line, within 1 per cent — which is why both have atmospheres that are marginally bound and measurably escaping. Where it fails it fails in one direction only. Mercury, the Moon and the Galilean satellites all plot above lines for gases they do not have, because retention is necessary and not sufficient: a body also needs a source, and needs to survive the non-thermal losses this criterion says nothing about. Venus is the sharpest case — it sits above the hydrogen line and has still lost an ocean, because that hydrogen left by charge exchange with the solar wind rather than by moving fast enough.

The gas a planet cannot keep

Escape is a statement about the tail of a distribution rather than about its mean, so the threshold is not a speed but a dimensionless number near thirty — and past that number the loss rate falls by twelve orders of magnitude. Then, for a hot Jupiter, the whole picture fails and the atmosphere leaves as a wind.

10 figures · Atmospheric escape Four defensible boxes, and a factor of 2.9 between the answers. Above: the occurrence surface in starlight received against planet radius, with four published definitions of "an Earth-size planet in the habitable zone" drawn on it as rectangles. The surface is a stated parameterisation — two lognormal populations at 1.3 and 2.4 Earth radii, with the radius valley at 1.9 between them, normalised so that the whole of it comes to 0.5 planets per star between one and four Earth radii inside a hundred days. Integrating it over the four boxes gives 17%, 8%, 6%, 10% — a factor of 2.9 between the conservative zone and a broad definition, before any error bar is attached to any of them. The dashed curve is what a transit survey can actually see: at one year around a Sun-like star the smallest detectable planet is 1.6 Earth radii, so the lower-left corner of every box contains no detections at all and the rate there is an extrapolation of a fitted surface rather than a count of anything. Below: the same integral with only one corner moved. Holding the flux range fixed and sliding the radius bound from 1.5 to 1.75 Earth radii — a quarter of an Earth radius, well inside the uncertainty of a measured planetary radius — changes the answer by 43 per cent, which is larger than every error bar quoted with any of these numbers. The published values of η⊕ span two per cent to sixty; roughly a factor of 2.9 of that is definition, and the rest is how far each author was willing to extrapolate past the dashed line.

The part of a rate that is a definition

Published values for the frequency of Earth-size planets in habitable zones span two per cent to sixty. The spread is not measurement error — it is where the box was drawn, on a surface that is steepest exactly at the corner every author has to choose, and outside the last detection.

10 figures · Occurrence rates The ice line at 2.7 AU, and the 3.4-fold jump in solid material across it. Two temperature thresholds turned into radii, against stellar mass, both axes logarithmic. The shaded band is the habitable zone, where water can be liquid on a planet's surface. The heavy line is the snow line of the disc the planets formed in — the distance at which a passively heated disc, whose temperature falls as the inverse square root of radius, reaches 170 K and water freezes. For a solar-luminosity star it sits at 2.71 AU, just outside the asteroid belt, and it is 1.6 times further out than the outer edge of the habitable zone; around a 0.15 solar-mass star both have moved inwards and the ratio is 5.5. What makes the line matter is what happens as it is crossed. Water is by far the most abundant condensable material after hydrogen and helium, so freezing it raises the surface density of solids by roughly 3.4 times in one step. Everything about the architecture of a planetary system follows from that step: a core massive enough to capture gas can be assembled outside the line and not inside it, which is why the solar system has small rocky planets in and giant ones out, and why a giant planet found at 0.05 AU is a statement about migration rather than about formation. The line is drawn where a mature disc puts it; a young, accreting disc is hotter and its line is several times further out, sweeping inwards as the disc drains.

The line beyond which ice counts as rock

A disc of gas around a young star gets colder outwards, and at about a hundred and seventy kelvin water stops being vapour and becomes a building material. Crossing that one line multiplies the solid mass available by roughly three and a half, in a single step, and the architecture of every planetary system is downstream of it.

9 figures · The snow line The same wind strips a mini-Neptune inside 0.06 au and leaves a hot Jupiter intact. The fraction of a planet's hydrogen envelope removed in 5 billion years by an energy-limited wind, against orbital distance, at a heating efficiency of 0.15 and an extreme-ultraviolet fluence integrated over the star's own history — saturated at L_XUV/L_bol = 3.2·10⁻⁴ for the first 100 million years and declining as t to the power −1.23 after, which comes to 4.9·10¹⁵ J m⁻² at one astronomical unit and is some 7 times what today's flux would give over the same span. This is a different mechanism from the tail of a Maxwellian, not a correction to it. Close to a star the upper atmosphere absorbs more extreme ultraviolet than it can radiate away, expands, and flows off as a wind whose rate is set by the energy arriving — Ṁ = ηπR³F/GM — so the exponential in the Jeans parameter vanishes entirely and what remains is a ratio of radius cubed to mass, which is one over the density. That is why the three curves are ordered as they are. The hot Jupiter is dense enough to lose 0.0087 of itself even at 0.047 au, where HD 209458 b sits and where its escaping hydrogen makes a transit fifteen per cent deep in Lyman α against one and a half per cent in the optical — an exosphere filling and overflowing the Roche lobe, and still costing the planet almost nothing. The mini-Neptune loses its whole envelope anywhere inside 0.06 au, and what is left when it does is a bare core about 1.5 Earth radii across. That is one of the two standard accounts of the gap in the radius histogram, and this figure is what it looks like before any of the observations are brought in.

A planet ten times larger in one colour

A hot Neptune that blocks one and a half per cent of its star's light in the optical blocks fifteen per cent of it in the ultraviolet line of hydrogen. No bound atmosphere can be that large — the material is well outside the planet's Roche lobe — so the observation is not a measurement of an atmosphere but of one leaving.

8 figures · Atmospheric escape

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