Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
The collection

Every essay — page 19

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 361–380 of 514.

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

A patch that throws away 2.5 to 436 metres a second. The velocity error a patched-conic approximation makes at each planet's sphere of influence, on a logarithmic scale, for an approach at 3 kilometres a second. The sphere of influence is where the two ways of writing the problem — planet-centred with the Sun as a perturber, or Sun-centred with the planet as one — become equally bad, and at that radius the neglected solar tide is exactly two times the fifth root of the planet's mass ratio times the planet's own pull. That is drawn beside each planet, it runs from 0.09 to 0.50, and it is not the same for all of them — a factor of 5.6 that the definition does not remove. Because both neglected terms are largest exactly at the surface where the switch is made, the trajectory has a discontinuity in its acceleration and an accumulated velocity error of metres a second. That is negligible for a mission design and enormous for a navigation solution, which is why patched conics are used to find a trajectory and never to fly one: the real trajectory is obtained by numerically integrating the full n-body problem, differentially corrected onto the patched-conic solution as a starting guess.

The discontinuity a patched conic hides

An interplanetary trajectory is designed as two exact solutions glued along a surface where neither is valid. At that surface both neglected forces are at their largest, so the stitched path has a kink no real trajectory has — and the size of the kink is metres a second, which is a rounding error for a mission design and a catastrophe for a navigation solution.

6 figures · Patched conics

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

A transit that lasts 4.0 times longer at one end of the orbit than the other. The duration of a transit, relative to what a circular orbit of the same period around the same star would give, against the orientation of the orbit. A planet transiting near perihelion is moving fastest and its transit is shortest; one transiting near aphelion is slowest and its transit is longest. The two extremes are exact reciprocals — the circular duration is their geometric mean, whatever the eccentricity — and at e = 0.6 they differ by a factor of (1+e)/(1−e), which is 4.0. That is an enormous, easily measured effect, and it means a transit duration is not a stellar density unless the orbit is circular. Turned round, it is a measurement: given a stellar density from asteroseismology or from a parallax and a spectrum, the duration anomaly gives the eccentricity — from photometry alone, with no radial velocities at all.

A duration that measures an eccentricity

A transit's length is a measurement of how fast the planet was moving when it crossed, and that speed depends on where it was on its orbit. For a circular orbit the duration gives the star's density; for an eccentric one it gives the density times a factor of up to four — and if the density is known independently, the factor is the eccentricity.

6 figures · Transits A gap 1 per cent deep that became 63. The distribution of planet radii, drawn three ways: the underlying distribution with a gap in it, the same distribution convolved with a 25 per cent stellar radius error, and convolved with a 5 per cent one. Every planet radius is the transit depth's square root multiplied by a stellar radius, so an error in the star is an error in the planet, and a population of planets inherits the population of stellar errors as a smearing. The gap is 1 per cent deep at the old precision and 63 at the new one, and its centre does not move — a symmetric smearing hides a feature without displacing it. That is what happened when parallaxes for a hundred thousand planet hosts arrived: no new planets were observed, and a feature that had been marginal became unambiguous.

A planet radius is a stellar radius

A transit measures a ratio and nothing else. Every planet radius ever published is that ratio multiplied by a stellar radius that came from somewhere entirely different, so a population of planets inherits the errors of a population of stars — and when the stars were measured better, a feature nobody could see became unmistakable.

6 figures · Planet composition A planet that subtracts 73 per cent of itself at the inner working angle. The fraction of a planet's flux that survives an angular differential imaging subtraction, against its separation from the star in resolution elements, for a sequence covering 25 degrees of field rotation. The reference image is built from the target's own frames, so a planet that has not moved far between them is present in the reference and is removed along with the speckles. How far it moves is the arc length, which is proportional to the separation — so the self-subtraction is severe close in and negligible far out, and the half-throughput point is at 2.1 resolution elements here. The consequence for any contrast curve is that it is a statement about an algorithm as well as about an instrument: the depth reached has to be measured by injecting fake planets into the data and recovering them, because no calculation predicts what fraction of a real one survives.

A star subtracted using the star

Imaging a planet means removing a halo of scattered starlight a hundred million times brighter than the planet, and no model of that halo is good enough to subtract. So it is built from the star's own exposures — and since the planet is in those exposures too, it subtracts part of itself.

6 figures · Direct imaging Three planets that are the same spectrum. A model transmission spectrum, in scale heights of apparent radius, drawn three times: once as it is, once with the reference radius raised by 0.45 scale heights and the abundance reduced to compensate, and once with a cloud deck truncating the features. The three differ by 0.21 scale heights root-mean-square against features of 2.1, which is well inside the error bars of any real observation. The reason is structural rather than observational: a transmission spectrum measures a difference in apparent radius with wavelength and never an absolute radius, so the level is a free parameter, and shifting the level trades against the abundance almost exactly. Adding a cloud deck adds a third parameter that flattens features and trades against both. Three unknowns and one curve is why the quoted abundance uncertainties from transmission spectroscopy are so much larger than the photometric precision suggests.

A spectrum flattened by cloud, or by nothing

A transmission spectrum measures how a planet's apparent radius changes with wavelength, and never the radius itself. That missing level is a free parameter, it trades almost exactly against the abundance of whatever is absorbing, and a cloud deck adds a third unknown to a curve that constrains two.

6 figures · Exoplanet atmospheres A bump that crosses the line from -41 to 25 km/s. The residual of a rotationally broadened line profile during a transit, drawn at five epochs and offset vertically. The planet covers a strip of the stellar disc whose radial velocity is the projected rotation at that position, so it removes light from one velocity and leaves a bump in the residual there. As the planet crosses, the bump travels across the profile — and where it starts and ends is set by the geometry of the chord. An orbit aligned with the star's equator gives a track symmetric about the line centre; this one, tilted by 30 degrees, runs from -41 to 25 kilometres a second and is not. The measurement is of a path rather than of a centroid, which is why it works on rapidly rotating stars where the velocity anomaly is swamped by the line's own width.

A shadow crossing a rotating line

A transiting planet hides a strip of a rotating star, and that strip has a definite velocity. So the planet removes light from one place in the line profile and leaves a bump there — a bump that travels across the line as the transit proceeds, tracing the path the planet took across the disc.

6 figures · Spin–orbit alignment

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

A virial mass inflated 23.2-fold by orbits nobody resolved. The factor by which a virial mass is overestimated when the velocity dispersion is measured from single-epoch spectra, against the system's true dispersion, for four numbers of observing epochs. Every star in a binary carries its own orbital velocity, which adds in quadrature to the system's own, and the orbital velocities of ordinary binaries are of order a kilometre a second. A system whose real dispersion is 0.3 km/s therefore measures 1.45, and since a virial mass goes as the square of the dispersion the mass comes out 23.2 times too large. Repeat epochs fix it: the orbital velocities are uncorrelated between visits while the system's own are not, so the binary variance falls as one over the number of epochs and the correction is measured rather than modelled.

A dispersion inflated by orbits nobody resolved

A velocity dispersion measured from single spectra is not the dispersion of the system's centres of mass. Every star in a binary carries its own orbital velocity of a kilometre or so, and for a dwarf galaxy whose real dispersion is smaller than that, the measured value — and the dark-matter content computed from its square — is mostly binaries.

6 figures · Velocity dispersion Two bands 2.1 standard deviations apart, and neither is a point. The plane of the matter density against the amplitude of matter fluctuations, with the constraints from a weak-lensing survey and from the microwave background drawn as bands. Lensing measures the shear produced by structure along the line of sight, and that shear depends on how much matter there is and on how clumpy it is in a fixed combination — more matter arranged less clumpily gives the same signal. The locus is a power law of exponent one half, and the combination it fixes is written S₈. The two bands are separated by 2.1 standard deviations, and whatever that separation is, it is a statement about the growth of structure between recombination and now rather than about either measurement's precision. Neither band alone determines either quantity, which is why the disagreement is quoted in the combination rather than in the parameters.

Two parameters that lensing measures as one

A weak-lensing survey measures how much the shapes of distant galaxies are distorted by the matter in front of them, and that distortion depends on how much matter there is and on how clumpily it is arranged. The two enter as a product. What the survey determines is one number, and the disagreement between surveys and the microwave background is stated in that number because neither measures either quantity alone.

6 figures · Weak lensing Three mass models, one rotation curve. Rotation curves for three decompositions of the same galaxy, from a disc contributing 30 per cent of the outer rotation to one contributing 95. Each is the quadrature sum of a stellar disc, whose shape is fixed by the light distribution and whose amplitude is an unknown mass-to-light ratio, and a dark halo with parameters of its own. All three reproduce the same flat outer rotation, because the halo's amplitude is adjusted to make up whatever the disc does not supply. They differ in the inner few kiloparsecs, by 27 kilometres a second here — which is more than the measurement error and less than the uncertainty in the disc's own contribution, since that depends on a mass-to-light ratio nobody measures directly. The maximum-disc assumption picks the largest disc consistent with the data, and it is a convention rather than a result.

Three mass models that fit the same curve

A rotation curve is one function of radius and it is fitted with three components, only one of which is known. The stellar disc's contribution scales with a mass-to-light ratio nobody measures, and whatever the disc does not supply the dark halo does — so a family of models reproduces the same curve exactly, and choosing among them is a convention rather than a measurement.

6 figures · Dark matter A sheet of mass that changes 32 km/s/Mpc and no image. The mass-sheet degeneracy, drawn as what it does and does not change. Adding a uniform sheet of convergence and rescaling the unobservable source position leaves every image position relative to the lens, every image shape and every flux ratio exactly as it was — the transformation is an exact symmetry of the lens equation, not an approximation. What it does change is the time delay between images, in proportion, so a Hubble constant inferred from a measured delay is multiplied by the inverse of the rescaling. Across the range of sheets that a plausible line of sight can supply, the inferred Hubble constant moves by 32 kilometres a second per megaparsec — which is larger than the disagreement between the early and late measurements the technique is meant to arbitrate. Nothing in the lensing data can fix it; the constraint has to come from the lens galaxy's stellar kinematics or from the environment along the line of sight.

A sheet of mass that changes nothing but the answer

A gravitational lens's images are unchanged by adding a uniform sheet of matter and rescaling the source. Every position, every shape and every flux ratio stays exactly as it was; only the time delays change, in proportion. So a Hubble constant measured from a delay is multiplied by a number the lensing itself cannot determine.

6 figures · Strong lensing One velocity, two distances — 4.7 and 9.5 kiloparsecs. The radial velocity of gas along a line of sight at galactic longitude 30 degrees, against distance from the Sun, for a flat rotation curve. The velocity rises to a maximum at the tangent point — where the line of sight is tangent to a circle of radius R₀ sin l — and falls again beyond it, so every velocity below the maximum corresponds to two distances. A cloud observed at 84 kilometres a second is at either 4.7 or 9.5 kiloparsecs, and nothing about its velocity says which. The two possibilities differ by a factor in distance and by its square in luminosity and mass, so the ambiguity is not a refinement — it decides whether a star-forming region is an ordinary one nearby or a monster on the far side of the Galaxy.

One velocity and two distances

Inside the Sun's orbit a line of sight crosses each galactocentric radius twice, and the two crossings have identical radial velocities. So a cloud's velocity gives two candidate distances, near and far, differing by a factor — and nothing about the velocity says which, though the choice decides whether the object is ordinary or extraordinary.

6 figures · Galactic structure

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

A dipole 187 times the signal, and its own harmonics under it. The amplitude of each harmonic of the observer's own motion imprinted on the microwave sky, against the anisotropies of the sky itself. Moving at 369.8 kilometres a second through a blackbody field makes it hotter ahead and cooler behind by a fraction β = v/c, giving a dipole of 3.36 millikelvin — 187 times the 18 microkelvin anisotropies. Each further harmonic is smaller by another factor of β, so the kinematic quadrupole is 4.15 microkelvin, which is comparable to the real quadrupole and has to be subtracted separately. The dipole is not a nuisance in one respect: it is the measurement of the solar system's motion with respect to the radiation, and it is the most precisely known velocity in astronomy.

A dipole a hundred times the signal

The largest structure in the microwave sky is the observer. Moving through a blackbody radiation field makes it hotter ahead and cooler behind by three and a third millikelvin — nearly two hundred times the anisotropies that all of cosmology is read from — and removing it is the first operation on any map.

6 figures · Microwave background A 5 per cent continuum error, and an optical depth wrong by 1.1. The mean transmitted flux of the Lyman-alpha forest against redshift, with a 5 per cent uncertainty in the quasar continuum drawn as a band. The continuum is not observed: at these redshifts every part of the spectrum blueward of the emission line is absorbed, so the level has to be extrapolated from the red side across a region where the quasar's own spectrum has structure. A fractional error in that level is a fractional error in the flux, and since the optical depth is minus the logarithm of the flux, the resulting error in the optical depth is the fractional error divided by the flux — which grows without bound as the forest goes black. At z = 2 it is 0.06; at z = 6.2 it is 1.1. That is why measurements of when reionisation ended are quoted as limits rather than values above about redshift six.

A forest with no continuum left

Measuring how much neutral hydrogen sits between here and a distant quasar means measuring the fraction of its light that survives, which means knowing how much light there was. At high redshift nothing survives at the wavelengths that would show it, so the level is extrapolated across the region being measured — and the optical depth is the logarithm of a number divided by a guess.

6 figures · Reionisation One curve the temperature fixes, and one line the polarisation adds. The plane of the optical depth to reionisation against the amplitude of the primordial fluctuations. The temperature power spectrum of the microwave background measures the product of the amplitude and the exponential of minus twice the optical depth, so it constrains a curve rather than a point: more electrons scattering the photons out is indistinguishable from fewer fluctuations to begin with, and the two trade along the drawn locus across a factor of 1.22 in amplitude. What breaks it is the polarisation at the largest angular scales, where rescattered photons regenerate a signal whose amplitude is proportional to the optical depth itself rather than to its exponential. That constraint is nearly vertical here, it comes from a handful of multipoles at the very largest scales, and it is the single hardest measurement the microwave background has demanded — because at those scales the Galaxy's own polarised emission is larger than the signal.

An amplitude and a depth that arrive multiplied

The microwave background's temperature fluctuations are the primordial ones damped by everything that scattered them since. The damping is uniform, so a smaller starting amplitude and more scattering produce identical maps — and separating them requires a signal from a handful of the largest angular scales, where the Galaxy's own emission is larger than what is being measured.

7 figures · Reionisation Take 8 per cent off the horizon and the tension is gone. The Hubble constant against the sound horizon at recombination, along the locus the microwave background's measured angular scale fixes. What is measured is an angle — the angular size of the horizon, to a part in three thousand — and an angle is a length divided by a distance, so extracting an expansion rate requires the length. That length is computed from the physics of the first four hundred thousand years: the baryon density, the radiation density, the number of relativistic species and the recombination history. Change any of those and the locus is unchanged while the point on it moves. The horizontal band is the late-universe measurement from the distance ladder, and it meets the locus at 136 megaparsecs — 8 per cent shorter than the standard model gives. That is the arithmetic behind every proposal to resolve the disagreement by changing the early universe rather than the late one.

A constant that is an angle divided by a length

The microwave background does not measure an expansion rate. It measures one angle — the apparent size of the sound horizon at recombination — to a part in three thousand, and converting that angle into a rate requires the horizon's physical length, which is computed from a model of the first four hundred thousand years rather than observed.

6 figures · Hubble constant Residuals of 112 per cent nearby and 2.2 far out. Deviations from a pure Hubble flow, in per cent, against distance. Each galaxy carries a peculiar velocity of a few hundred kilometres a second — part a coherent bulk flow shared with its neighbours and part a random dispersion — and that velocity is added to its recession. Since the recession grows with distance and the peculiar velocity does not, the fractional error falls as one over the distance: it is 112 per cent at 5 megaparsecs and 2.2 at 250. The practical consequence is a lower cut-off on any Hubble-constant measurement: below about 40 megaparsecs the motions dominate, and the coherent part does not average away over a sample because neighbouring galaxies share it. Choosing that cut-off is one of the analysis decisions a local expansion rate depends on.

A residual that is somebody else's velocity

A redshift is not a distance until the galaxy's own motion has been removed, and galaxies move at a few hundred kilometres a second. Nearby that is comparable to the expansion itself, so the local Hubble diagram's scatter is motions rather than measurement — and the motions are shared between neighbours, so they do not average away.

6 figures · Dark energy The helium abundance as a count of neutrino species. The primordial helium mass fraction against the number of light neutrino species, integrated at a deuterium-bottleneck temperature of 0.0855 MeV and a neutron lifetime of 877.75 s. The curve rises at 0.01348 in Y_p per species near the standard model, and it is not quite a line: freeze-out temperature goes as the sixth root of g_*, so a species added at N_eff = 4.5 buys 25 per cent less helium than one added at 2 — a slope ratio of 0.749 against the 0.769 that scaling requires. The reading below is therefore taken off the drawn curve rather than off a slope. The horizontal band is the measurement — ⁴He (Aver 2015), Y_p = 0.2449 ± 0.004, taken from recombination lines in metal-poor dwarf galaxies and extrapolated to zero metallicity. Where the band crosses the line is the answer: N_eff = 2.84, with the ends of the observed interval giving 2.56 to 3.13. The standard model has three, and 3.046 rather than 3 because the neutrinos are not quite decoupled when the electron–positron pairs annihilate and take a sliver of the heat. The strength of this is not its precision, which is a third of a species and worse than the microwave background's; it is that the two constraints come from utterly different epochs, and that this one is a laboratory result about particle content obtained from an emission line in a galaxy.

A particle count taken from a dwarf galaxy

Nearly every neutron that survives the first three minutes ends inside a helium nucleus, so the primordial helium abundance is not chemistry — it is the reading of a race between the weak interaction and the expansion. The expansion rate carries the square root of the number of relativistic species, which is why an emission line in a metal-poor galaxy counts neutrinos.

8 figures · Nucleosynthesis A path length recovered from two integrals of one cluster. The two line-of-sight integrands through an isothermal β = 0.67 cluster, each normalised to its own centre, against distance along the line of sight in core radii. The upper curve is electron density, which the Compton parameter integrates; the lower is density squared, which the X-ray surface brightness integrates. They are integrals of the same gas along the same line and they weight it differently — the half-width is 1.00 core radii for the linear one and 0.64 for the quadratic, and one core radius either side of the centre holds 51 per cent of the pressure signal against 82 per cent of the X-ray. That difference is the whole method. Two integrals with different powers of one unknown density, down one unknown path, are two equations in two unknowns: y₀ = 1.5·10⁻⁴ and a central X-ray surface brightness of 1.63·10⁻⁵ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ give back a central density of 0.006 cm⁻³ and a physical core radius of 0.250 Mpc. Divide that length by the angular core radius the same cluster subtends, 54.2 arcseconds, and the answer is an angular-diameter distance of 952 Mpc — against the 952 Mpc the cluster was built at, which is the round trip this figure exists to close. Nothing in that chain is calibrated on a Cepheid, a supernova or a parallax. It is a length in centimetres measured against an angle.

A length in centimetres, measured against an angle

A cluster's hot gas offers two line integrals of the same electrons — one linear in density, one quadratic. Two equations in two unknowns give back the path length in centimetres, and a length divided by the angle it subtends is a distance with no rung of any ladder beneath it.

8 figures · Sunyaev zeldovich

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

The habitable zone of a 1 M☉ star, sweeping outwards. The inner and outer edges of the liquid-water zone against time, for a 1 solar-mass star whose main sequence lasts 10.0 Gyr. The star brightens as it burns hydrogen — a heavier core needs a hotter centre to hold the star up — so both edges move outward by a factor of 1.63 across the whole main sequence, and the band drawn here sweeps past any fixed orbit rather than containing it. Two quite different zones can be read off. The instantaneous zone at the age of the present-day Sun is 0.99 to 1.71 AU, which is the band a survey means by "in the habitable zone". The continuously habitable zone over the 10.0 Gyr drawn is the overlap of every instant in it — outside the inner edge at the end and inside the outer edge at the beginning — which is 1.37 to 1.44 AU, 10 per cent of the instantaneous width. The horizontal line is an orbit at 1 AU. It leaves the zone at 4.72 Gyr, when the inner edge overtakes it. None of these edges is a measurement: both come from one-dimensional climate models, and the inner one in particular is where a runaway greenhouse begins in a model whose clouds are prescribed.

The band moves and the orbit does not

A star brightens as it burns, so the distance at which water can be liquid sweeps outwards by a factor of one and a half across a main sequence. The band a survey quotes is an instant; the band a planet needs is the overlap of every instant, and for the Sun it is a tenth as wide and does not contain the Earth.

8 figures · Habitable zone Three perturbing masses drawing one curve. Transit-timing residuals for three systems whose perturbing planets are 12, 8, 5 Earth masses — a factor of 2.4 apart — each given the inner-planet eccentricity that the near-resonant theory says will compensate: 0.0000, 0.0166, 0.0363. The three curves have amplitudes of 1.7, 1.7, 1.7 minutes, within 0 per cent of each other, and they are drawn by three separate integrations that were told nothing about the theory used to pick the eccentricities. The eccentricity enters the near-resonant term divided by Δ, the fractional distance from exact resonance — here 0.0267 — so a hundredth of an eccentricity does the work of a factor of two in mass. This is why a transit-timing mass is not a mass until something else fixes the eccentricity, and why the masses that came out of the first years of such fits were systematically lower than the radial-velocity masses of the same planets.

A mass that is only a mass once the eccentricity is known

The near-resonant part of a transit-timing signal carries the perturber's mass and the pair's free eccentricity in the same bracket, divided by the distance from resonance. A hundredth of an eccentricity therefore does the work of a factor of two in mass, and three quite different systems draw one curve.

8 figures · Transit-timing

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