Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
The collection

Every essay — page 24

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 461–480 of 534.

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

The one number a cloud cannot change by squeezing. The mass-to-flux ratio in units of its critical value, against column density, for clouds threaded by fields of 3, 10, 30, 100 microgauss. λ below one is subcritical, and the field alone holds the cloud up, and no amount of compression changes that, because squeezing raises the magnetic and the gravitational energy at the same rate and leaves their ratio exactly where it was. λ above one is supercritical and the field is irrelevant to whether the cloud collapses. Each line has slope exactly one because λ is proportional to the column density at fixed field, and each crosses the boundary at 3.9·10²⁰ cm⁻² for 3 µG, 1.3·10²¹ cm⁻² for 10 µG, 3.9·10²¹ cm⁻² for 30 µG, 1.3·10²² cm⁻² for 100 µG. The Jeans mass is a threshold a cloud can cross by contracting; this one is a label it is born with, and the only way past it is to let the field leak out.

Support that cannot be squeezed away

A cloud held up by pressure can always be defeated by compressing it, because gravity gains faster than heat does. A cloud held up by a magnetic field cannot — squeezing raises both energies at exactly the same rate, so the ratio a cloud is born with is the one it keeps, and the only way out is to let the field leak.

7 figures · Molecular clouds Turbulence stops being supersonic at 0.04 parsecs. The velocity dispersion of molecular gas against the size of the region it is measured over, from σ = 1 (R/pc)^0.5 km/s, with the isothermal sound speed of 10 K gas drawn flat beneath it. The two cross at 0.035 parsecs, which is solved for here rather than quoted: below that scale the motions are subsonic and the gas is supported by its own pressure, above it they are supersonic and nothing thermal is relevant. At ten parsecs the Mach number is 17 and at a hundredth of a parsec it is 0.53. The crossing is the scale at which turbulent support runs out, and it is within a factor of two of the size of the dense cores that actually form stars — which is either the most important coincidence in the subject or the reason cores are the size they are.

The support and the seed are the same motions

A molecular cloud's lines are ten times wider than its temperature allows, and the width grows with the size of the region measured. The motions that widen them hold the cloud up as a whole and make the dense lumps inside it — so the same turbulence that delays star formation is what decides where it happens.

7 figures · Molecular clouds

Gravitation

Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.

The ceiling a measured response has to be read against. The fluid Love number of a layered body — the value it would have if its outer shell offered no resistance whatever — against the radius of its core, for cores 1×, 1.6×, 2.4×, 3.6× the density of the material outside. Every curve starts at 3/2, because a core of no size is a uniform body, and falls as the core grows: central condensation stiffens a fluid body without giving it any strength, since the tidal forcing is strongest out where there is then very little mass to move. A body 0.6 of the way core at 3.6× density has a fluid ceiling of 0.787. A measurement above the relevant curve is impossible for any interior of that layering; a measurement below it says only that something is resisting, and does not say what.

An ocean is detected and its depth is not

A tidal response thirty-six times too large for any solid body proves a moon has a liquid layer under its crust. It does not say how deep the liquid is, how thick the crust above it is, or what the core beneath it is made of — because the same one number is produced by a whole surface of interiors.

8 figures · Love numbers What Io dissipates depends on how fast the tide is applied. The dissipative part of the Love number, −Im k₂, against the period of the forcing, for Io at an interior viscosity of 1e+16 Pa s. Two rheologies are drawn: a Maxwell solid, a spring and a dashpot in series, and an Andrade solid, which adds the anelastic creep every real material shows in the laboratory and a Maxwell body does not, with an exponent of 0.3. They agree for tides slower than the Maxwell time of 1.9 days, where the body has time to flow and the transient is irrelevant. They part completely for faster ones: at the shortest period drawn the Andrade body dissipates 20 times what the Maxwell body does. A quality factor quoted without a period is half a number, and which half is missing depends on a rheology measured in a laboratory rather than derived.

A quality factor quoted without a period is half a number

The tidal response of a solid body is not a constant. It is a function of how fast the tide is applied, and two rheologies that agree perfectly about a slow tide disagree by orders of magnitude about a quick one — so the same moon has one Love number at its orbital period and a different one at the period of its own libration.

7 figures · Love numbers

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

A delay that counts the gas nothing can see. The mean dispersion measure of a radio pulse against the redshift it comes from, for several shares of the baryons residing in diffuse ionised gas between galaxies. A pulse is delayed by free electrons in proportion to the column it crosses, and that column is an integral over the expansion history of a density the baryon budget fixes — so the only unknown in the whole expression is the share itself. At z = 1 the relation gives 1085 pc cm⁻³ if every baryon is out there and 543 at 50 per cent. The measurement runs the other way: a burst with a known host redshift and a measured delay returns the fraction, and the answer came out consistent with nucleosynthesis. A pulse a millisecond long weighs the half of the ordinary matter that no survey could find, and it does so because the thing that delays it is the thing that does not shine.

Half the ordinary matter was missing, and a millisecond found it

Nucleosynthesis fixes how many baryons there are to better than a per cent. Every survey of where they are came up about half short for two decades — and what closed the gap was the delay a radio pulse picks up crossing gas too thin and too hot for any telescope to have seen.

6 figures · Density parameters A mass measured by the structure it prevents. The fractional suppression of the small-scale matter power spectrum against the sum of the neutrino masses. The relic density follows from the thermal history with no astrophysics in it — the neutrinos’ share of the critical density, times h², is the mass sum divided by 93.14 eV exactly — and the suppression is about eight times the neutrinos' share of the matter, because a particle moving at a large fraction of the speed of light streams out of an overdensity while it is still growing and takes its own gravity with it. The two mass orderings put a floor under the sum at 58 meV and 100 meV; the cosmological upper bound is near 0.12 eV, which is 7.2 per cent of suppression. The floor and the ceiling are within a factor of two of each other, so this is a measurement about to happen or a model about to break, and the quantity it returns is a sum rather than any individual mass.

A mass measured by what it stopped from forming

Neutrinos were relativistic in the early universe and are not now, so they are the one entry in the cosmic budget that changes category. What cosmology measures is not their density but the hole they leave — they stream out of a growing clump and take their gravity with them, and the missing structure bounds a particle mass more tightly than any laboratory has.

6 figures · Density parameters Structure stops forming above about 14 times the observed Λ. The fraction of matter that ever collapses into a bound object, against the cosmological constant in units of the observed one, holding the primordial fluctuation amplitude fixed. Growth of structure stops once Λ dominates the expansion, so the linear growth factor approaches a finite limit rather than rising for ever, and a larger Λ freezes it earlier and smaller. The asymptotic growth factor at the observed Λ is 1.110; at a hundredth of it, 5.152; at a hundred times, 0.239. The collapsed fraction falls from 0.86 to 0.40 to 0.000 across the same range, and passes a tenth of its present value at 14 times the observed constant. The observed value sits a factor of 14 below the largest one that leaves anything at all — which is the whole of the anthropic argument, and that factor is what has to be compared against the 10¹²⁰ by which the naive theoretical estimate misses.

A coincidence that is a factor of fourteen

The cosmological constant is famously wrong by a hundred and twenty orders of magnitude, and famously coincidental in sitting near the matter density now. Computing how large it could be and still leave any structure at all turns the second complaint into a number — and the number is fourteen, not a hundred and twenty.

8 figures · Density parameters

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

The solid mass available, as a staircase of 5 fronts. The share of the condensable material that is solid, against distance from a 1 solar-mass star, on a logarithmic radius axis. Each riser is one species freezing out, at the radius where the disc's temperature — falling as the inverse square root of the distance — reaches that species' condensation point. silicates and iron at 1400 K and 0.04 AU; water ice at 170 K and 2.71 AU; carbon dioxide at 70 K and 16.00 AU; methane and ammonia at 30 K and 87.11 AU; carbon monoxide at 20 K and 196.00 AU. Inside every front the solid surface density is 22 per cent of what is available, which is the refractories alone; water alone contributes 53 per cent, more than twice everything else combined, which is why one of these steps is called the snow line and the others are not. A body's composition is decided by which pair of risers it formed between, and the steps are narrow because a vapour pressure is exponential in the inverse temperature.

There is not one line, there is a staircase

Water freezing is the biggest step in a protoplanetary disc and it is one of five. Each condensable species has its own temperature and therefore its own radius, and what a body is made of is decided not by which side of a line it formed on but by which pair of risers it formed between.

6 figures · The snow line The ice line sweeps from 6.4 to 2.7 AU while the disc drains. The radius at which a disc around a 1 solar-mass star reaches 170 K, against the disc's age, both axes logarithmic. The temperature is the fourth root of the sum of two fluxes: starlight, which does not change, and the disc's own accretion, which releases gravitational energy at a rate set by how fast material is flowing inward. The accretion rate decays as the disc drains — taken here as 5e-5 solar masses a year falling off as t^(−3/2) beyond 0.1 million years — so the viscous term fades and the line sweeps in. It starts at 6.38 AU and ends at 2.73, the passive value the closed form gives. A body at three astronomical units formed dry if it formed early and icy if it formed late, so a composition dates a formation rather than locating one, and the dating is only as good as the accretion history assumed.

A composition that dates a formation rather than placing it

The ice line in a young disc starts six astronomical units out and sweeps inward to under three as the disc drains. A body at four astronomical units therefore formed dry or wet depending only on when — so what it is made of is a clock, and reading it as a map is the mistake the moving line makes easy.

7 figures · The snow line A carbon-to-oxygen ratio that steps at every front. The carbon-to-oxygen ratio of the gas and of the solids against distance from a 1 solar-mass star, each in units of the star's own ratio. Crossing a condensation front moves one element or both out of the gas and into the solids, so the two curves step in opposite directions at water at 2.7 AU, carbon dioxide at 16.0 AU, carbon monoxide at 196.0 AU. Water takes oxygen and no carbon, so beyond it the gas is carbon-rich — 3.20 times the stellar ratio — and the solids are oxygen-rich. Carbon monoxide takes both, in a ratio of one to one, so beyond that front the gas ratio rises again. A giant planet's atmosphere is made mostly of gas it accreted, so measuring its ratio and inverting this staircase gives a formation radius — and the inversion is not unique, because more than one interval returns the same value once the solids a planet also swallowed are allowed for.

Two elements in a ratio, and a birthplace read off it

Carbon and oxygen freeze out at different places, so the gas between the fronts is carbon-rich and the solids are oxygen-rich. A giant planet is made mostly of gas it accreted, so measuring the ratio in its atmosphere and inverting the staircase should give the radius it formed at — and the inversion turns out not to be unique.

6 figures · The snow line

The observed sky

Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.

A shadow whose centre is brighter than no shadow at all. The flux an observer records against their distance from the centre of the shadow, for a body of half-light radius 1180 km with an isothermal atmosphere of scale height 55 km. Away from the centre the curve is the ordinary occultation light curve — the star fading as refraction spreads its light — and near it the two limbs' contributions both carry a geometric factor of the impact parameter over the shadow position, which grows without bound on the axis. The spherical atmosphere reaches 34.79 of the unocculted flux. The ray that arrives on the axis has impact parameter 1019 km, which is 161 km — 2.9 scale heights — below the half-light level, at a pressure 19 times higher. That is the only part of an occultation that reaches there. The peak is finite only because the star is not a point: the geometric factor is softened at 3 km, which is the star's own size projected to the shadow. The second curve is the same atmosphere flattened by 2.0 per cent, which spreads the focus over 20 km and drops the peak to 19.8. A real flattened body gives a caustic rather than a broad peak — several sharp spikes, spread in two dimensions rather than one — so the width here is right, the structure is not, and the height is an upper bound.

The brightest instant of an occultation is its middle

A spherical atmosphere is a lens with a focal length of astronomical units, and an observer standing at the exact centre of the shadow is standing at its focus. The star does not disappear there — it brightens, by more than it would have been unocculted, and the ray that arrives has come from far deeper than anything else in the event.

6 figures · Occultations Below 1.3 km a shadow stops getting smaller. The relative rate at which a star is occulted, against the smallest body a survey can detect, for size distributions with slopes 3.5, 4, 4.5. The cross-section of a body is not its own diameter: diffraction gives every shadow a minimum width of about the Fresnel scale, √(λD/2), which at 40 AU and 550 nm is 1.28 km. Above that the cross-section grows with the body, so lowering the limit gains events as the limit to the power -1.5 for the shallowest distribution drawn; below it the cross-section stops shrinking and only the number of bodies keeps rising, which is a shallower gain by one power. Pushing the limit from 40 km to 0.2 multiplies the rate by 3106196 at the steepest slope and 14131 at the shallowest — so the rate a survey measures is a measurement of the size distribution, which is the quantity a collisional history predicts and nothing else can reach at these sizes.

A population counted by shadows that never repeat

A body a kilometre across at forty astronomical units is a hundred million times too faint to image and casts a shadow just as dark as a large one. Monitoring enough stars fast enough catches those shadows — each one a single unrepeatable event of a fraction of a second, and the measurement is not any event but the rate.

6 figures · Occultations The astrometry an occultation campaign has to have. How far the shadow lands from where it was predicted, against the angular error in the positions it was predicted from, for a Centaur at 15 AU, a Kuiper belt object at 40 AU, Uranus at 19 AU. The conversion is one line — an angle times a distance — and one milliarcsecond at one astronomical unit is 0.7255 kilometres. The horizontal bands are each body's own shadow width, which is its diameter, and the crossing is the accuracy at which a campaign stops being a lottery: a Centaur needs 23.0 mas, a Kuiper belt object needs 4.1 mas, Uranus needs 3701.0 mas. Before the all-sky astrometric surveys the typical error was tens of milliarcseconds, which is thousands of kilometres at these distances, so events by small bodies were found by accident and not by appointment. The same event then measures the body's position to a few milliarcseconds or better, which improves the ephemeris that predicts the next one.

Each event pays for the prediction of the next

An occultation is predicted from two positions and lands where the arithmetic says. Recording it then measures the occulting body's position to a few milliarcseconds — better than a year of imaging — so the observation that the prediction made possible improves the ephemeris the next prediction comes from.

5 figures · Occultations

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

The drag coefficient of a sphere runs from 2.03 to 2.79, and 2.2 is a convention. The free-molecular drag coefficient of a sphere against the accommodation coefficient — the fraction of striking molecules that thermalise with the surface and leave in a cosine distribution rather than bouncing — at speed ratios 2, 4, 8, with the surface at 0.3 times the flow's temperature. Specular reflection gives 2.469 at the lowest speed ratio drawn and 2.001 in the hypersonic limit, where every molecule delivers exactly twice its own momentum. Accommodation adds the re-emitted flux, which leaves at the wall temperature in a direction the flow did not choose, and it adds most where the speed ratio is smallest — which is high up, where the light species dominate. The conventional 2.2 lies outside this family at both ends: at s = 8 a sphere reaches only 2.112 even at full accommodation, and at s = 2 it is already 2.469 with none. That is not a defect of the arithmetic — 2.2 is a fitted average for satellite shapes, whose flat panels have a higher coefficient than a sphere of the same projected area, and the sphere is drawn because it is the one geometry with a closed form. What survives the shape is the dependence: a satellite's drag coefficient is an assumption about its surface chemistry and its attitude, and every density inferred from drag carries it in inverse proportion.

A coefficient that belongs to the surface, not the satellite

Every density ever inferred from satellite drag was divided by a drag coefficient, and that coefficient is not a property of the spacecraft. It is a property of what happens when an oxygen atom at eight kilometres a second strikes a surface it has already coated — and the conventional 2.2 is a convention.

5 figures · Atmospheric drag Assimilation buys a factor of 3.6 at 2 hours and 1.03 at 14 days. The along-track position error of a low-orbit object against how far ahead the prediction reaches, on logarithmic axes. The upper curve uses a climatological density model, whose error stays at 15 per cent however long it is run — the limitation is the functional form and the proxies driving it rather than a shortage of data. The others assimilate the observed drag on objects already in orbit, which replaces that with an observation error of 3 per cent and then lets the thermosphere forget, with memories of 0.5, 1.5, 4 days. Every curve rises as the square of the time, because an error in a drag acceleration integrates twice into a position. The advantage is a factor of 3.6 at 2 hours and 1.03 at 14 days, so assimilation changes what a conjunction screening can do and changes nothing about a re-entry date — and the dashed line is the kilometre at which a close approach becomes a manoeuvre decision.

A weather forecast made out of orbits

A density model fitted to fifty years of satellite drag is a climatology, and its error does not shrink with more data. Updating it from the drag observed on objects in orbit right now is the manoeuvre a weather forecast makes — and it buys a factor of several for a day and nothing at all for a fortnight.

5 figures · Atmospheric drag A corridor 0.2 km wide, and a density known to a factor of 2. The apoapsis a vehicle is left on after a single atmospheric pass, against the periapsis altitude it aimed at, for ballistic coefficients of 60, 130, 300 kg/m² arriving at 3 km/s. The energy removed is the density at periapsis times an effective path length of √(2πrₚH), divided by the ballistic coefficient — so it falls exponentially with altitude and the curve is steep. Hitting a 1000 km apoapsis to ±10 per cent requires a periapsis inside 0.2 kilometres. Getting the atmosphere wrong by a factor of 2 moves the aim point by 7.6 kilometres, which is 30.7 times the corridor's own width — so a ballistic vehicle aiming at a planet whose density is known to a factor of two misses by more than the tolerance allows, and the manoeuvre has to be flown rather than aimed.

A manoeuvre that has never been flown once

Arrive on a hyperbola, dip once through the atmosphere, leave on a bound orbit having spent no propellant. The saving is a kilometre a second or more, the physics is the same as an entry corridor, and nobody has done it — because the corridor is a tenth of a kilometre wide and the density is known to a factor of two.

5 figures · Atmospheric drag

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

The darkness, itemised. The extragalactic background light as a spectrum: νIᵥ against wavelength, in nanowatts per square metre per steradian, with wavelength logarithmic. The total under the two humps is not read off a plot — it is the integral (c/4π)∫ε(z)(1+z)⁻¹|dt/dz|dz of the Madau–Dickinson star formation history, taking a continuously star-forming population to radiate 10¹⁰ solar luminosities per solar mass per year, and it comes to 37.5 nW m⁻² sr⁻¹. Half of it was emitted beyond z = 0.91, which is the figure's real content: the dark sky is dominated by light released when the universe was 45 per cent of its present age. The split between the two humps is an assumption rather than a result — 50 per cent of the starlight is taken to be absorbed by dust and re-radiated near 140 µm, and the shapes are lognormals of about the observed widths — but the AREA under each is the computed quantity. Measured, the two come to about 24 and 26: the calculation falls 25 per cent short, and whether the missing light is real or a residual foreground is unsettled.

The darkness has a number in it

The night sky is not black. It carries about sixty nanowatts per square metre per steradian, and that number is the sum of every photon every star has ever emitted, redshifted and added up over thirteen billion years.

7 figures · Olbers's paradox The sky's darkness, measured as an opacity. Optical depth to electron–positron pair production against gamma-ray energy, for sources at redshifts 0.03, 0.1, 0.3, 1, both axes logarithmic. A gamma ray of energy E is absorbed most readily by background photons near twice the square of the electron rest energy divided by E: at 1 TeV that is 2.37 µm and at 100 GeV it is 0.24 µm, so the energy axis is a wavelength axis for the background light, running backwards — and the background it is evaluated against is the same two-component spectrum the star formation history produced, not a flat number. Above the marked τ = 1 the universe is opaque. The depth is computed in the delta-function approximation, the cross-section replaced by 0.2 of the Thomson value over a bandwidth of order the energy, with the background's comoving density evolving as (1+z)^1.2. That is a factor-of-two calculation and the shape is what it gets right: the horizon closes from z = 0.59 at 100 GeV to z = 0.16 at 1 TeV. The measurement runs the other way. A blazar's spectrum is observed, the absorbed part is the difference between it and the spectrum the source is believed to have emitted, and that difference gives the background — in the near infrared, where no direct measurement can subtract the zodiacal light well enough to compete.

A background weighed by what it stops

The faintest light in the universe cannot be photographed from inside the Solar System, because the zodiacal foreground is a hundred times brighter. It can be weighed instead, by the bite it takes out of a blazar at a trillion electronvolts.

7 figures · Olbers's paradox Three messengers, and the three walls they end on. The redshift of the last opaque surface, for the three things that cross the universe, on one logarithmic axis spanning thirty-one decades. Olbers' argument compares how far a sight line runs before it ends on something against how far anything has had time to come — and for starlight the first is 1.7·10¹⁸ Mpc against a horizon of 1.4·10⁴ Mpc, which is why the optical sky is dark. That comparison is not what decides the other two. A relic neutrino's mean free path against ordinary matter works out at 7.7·10³⁷ Mpc — 4·10¹⁹ times starlight's, so on the mean-free-path argument alone the neutrino sky should be darker still. It is not, because the quantity that terminates a sight line is the WALL, and the walls are at z = 1,090, z ≈ 6×10⁹ and nowhere at all. Every neutrino sight line ends on a surface from one second after the beginning; every gravitational-wave sight line runs to the beginning, or to a binary. Both of those skies are saturated — which is what Olbers' argument predicted, and what the optical sky refuses to do. The three are also wildly unequal in brightness: the microwave sky is 996 nW m⁻² sr⁻¹, and the gravitational-wave background at Ω = 10⁻⁹ is 0.018 — a saturated sky five decades fainter than a dark one.

Two skies where the paradox comes out right

Olbers argued that every sight line should end on a source and the sky should blaze. In neutrinos and in gravitational waves it does — the walls are at one second and at no time at all — and both of those skies have now been detected.

7 figures · Olbers's paradox

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

What comes back is a ramp, not a threshold. Detection efficiency against signal-to-noise: the fraction of synthetic transits injected into real photometry that the pipeline afterwards finds. The measured curve is a gamma cumulative distribution of shape 4.65 and scale 0.98 beginning at 4.1, which is the form a survey's own injection tests are fitted with; the dashed line is the step at 7.1 that a threshold calculation assumes instead. Half the injections are recovered at 8.33, 1.2 units above the nominal threshold — the ramp is a property of the search and the cut is a separate decision, so the two need not meet anywhere in particular. The rest of the disagreement is the area between the curves. The pipeline does not reach 99 per cent efficiency until 14.9, four units above the threshold, and it recovers 45 per cent one unit above it. Over a population whose signal-to-noise falls as s^-2 — which is what a planet population looks like, because there are far more small planets than large ones — the step function counts 1.21 times as many detections as the ramp does. That factor is not an error bar. It multiplies every occurrence rate computed without it, and it is larger for the small planets than for the large ones, because the small ones live where the ramp is.

The threshold that is not a threshold

A survey's detection limit is quoted as a number — seven point one — and a pipeline does not behave that way. Half the injected signals come back at the threshold, and full efficiency arrives four units above it.

7 figures · Detection bias

Every sequence · Every named object · Search