Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
The collection

Every essay — page 32

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 621–640 of 909.

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

The observed acceleration against the acceleration the visible matter explains. The acceleration measured from a rotation curve, v²/r, against the acceleration the stars and gas alone would produce at the same radius, both on logarithmic axes in metres per second squared. The solid curve is the fitting function to the measured relation for 153 disc galaxies, g(obs) = g(bar) / (1 − e^(−√(g(bar)/a₀))) with a₀ = 1.2 × 10⁻¹⁰ m s⁻², and the band is its observed scatter of ±0.13 dex, most of which is measurement error. Above a₀ the relation follows the dashed line of equality, where the baryons account for everything; below it, it bends onto the dotted line g(obs) = √(g(bar)·a₀). At ten times a₀ the observed acceleration exceeds the baryonic by a factor of 1.06; at a₀, by 1.58; at a hundredth of a₀, by 10.5. The discrepancy the dark matter is invoked to explain is a function of one variable, and the variable is an acceleration.

One acceleration, and every galaxy's missing mass

Plot the acceleration measured at each radius of a rotation curve against the acceleration its stars and gas would produce there, for every galaxy at once, and the points fall on a single curve. Where the discrepancy begins is set not by a radius or a mass but by an acceleration.

6 figures · Dark matter

Gravitation

Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.

Which hierarchical triples survive, against the outer orbit's pericentre and eccentricity. Each cell is one integration of a triple: an equal-mass inner binary on a circular orbit of unit separation, and a third body of 1 times the binary's mass on an outer orbit of the given eccentricity with its pericentre at the given distance from the binary's centre of mass, all in one plane and going the same way round. Cells coloured as survivors kept the binary intact and ejected nothing for 30 outer orbits — 37 of 50; the others broke up, shaded darker the longer they lasted. The curve is the Mardling–Aarseth stability criterion, a pericentre of 2.8 inner separations times ((1 + q)(1 + e)/√(1 − e))^0.4, derived from where the resonances between the outer orbit and the inner one begin to overlap, and meant for survival over very many orbits. Every triple outside it survived. Inside it, 17 of 30 also survived this run; the outermost break-up is at a pericentre of 3.0 for a circular outer orbit and 2.6 at e = 0.6. The boundary drawn from a finite integration is therefore a lifetime rather than a line — triples between the break-ups and the curve survived a run of this length and are not thereby shown to be stable; the criterion is a statement about how the resonances are arranged, and a finite integration can only fail to refute it.

A third body kept at a safe distance

Most triple stars last for billions of years because they are hierarchical — a close pair and a distant third. How distant is distant enough has a formula, the formula comes from overlapping resonances, and an integration of any finite length can only fail to refute it.

6 figures · The three-body problem Which of three bodies is thrown out. Of 60 integrations of three bodies of mass 1, 2, 3 released from rest in random triangles, 57 broke up within the time integrated, each leaving one body unbound and a binary behind. The escaper was the body of mass 1 in 46 runs (81 per cent), 2 in 6 runs (11 per cent), 3 in 5 runs (9 per cent). The bars beside them are the shares the statistical theory of break-up predicts to leading order, in proportion to the escaper's mass to the power −3: 86, 11, 3 per cent. Every run is deterministic and none of them could be predicted without integrating it, but the ensemble is: the lightest body leaves most often when the masses differ, because the energy of the binary left behind is shared between the escaper and the binary's recoil in inverse proportion to their masses, and the lightest body gets the most speed. Energy is conserved in every run to better than 3·10⁻⁴.

The lightest body leaves

Three stars close together, with no hierarchy between them, cannot stay together. One of them is thrown out, which one is unpredictable in any single case, and across many cases it is almost always the lightest — a statistical law emerging from a deterministic chaos that cannot be integrated far enough to forecast.

5 figures · The three-body problem The figure-eight with equal masses, and with one mass changed. The paths of three bodies in the figure-eight choreography over 100 periods, with equal masses (left) and with the third body's mass changed by 0.0001 (right). With equal masses the three paths lie on one another: each body runs round the same figure-of-eight, a third of a period behind the next. With the mass changed the three bodies stay bound but leave the single curve, filling a broad band round where it was. The choreography is an exact solution only for exactly equal masses, and the island of stable orbits near it is narrow.

A periodic orbit that the sky cannot keep

Three equal masses can chase one another for ever round a single figure of eight. The orbit exists, it is stable, and it will almost certainly never be seen — because its island of stability is a hundredth of a per cent wide in the masses, and nothing in nature makes three stars equal to that precision.

6 figures · The three-body problem

Orbits

Kepler's three laws, and the family of curves a single force allows.

A cloud of fragments that pinches where it was born. 240 fragments thrown from a satellite on a circular orbit 800 kilometres up, with kicks of about 100 metres a second in random directions in the orbital plane, each then following its own Kepler ellipse, drawn at 0.5, 1, 4.5, 20 orbital periods of the parent, with the Earth's centre marked and the break-up point at the top. Radial offsets from the parent's circle are exaggerated 2.5 times. Half a period after the break-up the fragments are spread 28 degrees along the orbit and 1374 kilometres in altitude, the kicks having carried some to higher apogees and others to lower perigees. After one period the along-track spread has grown to 53 degrees but the whole cloud is only 112 kilometres thick, and the 83 fragments within eight degrees of the break-up point span 35: every fragment's orbit passes through the break-up point, and the cloud pinches there once a period. By 4.5 periods it is 231 degrees long and 863 kilometres thick overall; by 20 it is 352 degrees long, still pinched to 11 kilometres where it began.

Every fragment comes back through the same point

When a satellite breaks up, its pieces fly off in every direction and every one of them returns, an orbit later, to the place where it broke. The cloud pinches there once a period, stretches along the orbit at a rate set by one component of each kick, and becomes a ring in hours.

6 figures · Vis-viva Lambert's time of flight in the semi-major axis and in Lancaster and Blanchard's variable. The non-dimensional time of flight T = t√(2μ/s³) of the transfer between radii 1 and 1.524 through 135 degrees, against two variables that label the same family of orbits. Left: against the semi-major axis in units of the minimum-energy ellipse's. The family is two curves — the fast branch, which passes the empty focus on one side, and the slow branch, on the other — joined at a = aₘ with T = 1.566, where both have a vertical tangent: the time changes infinitely fast with the semi-major axis there, and every a above aₘ corresponds to two times. Right: against x, the variable of Lancaster and Blanchard, in which a = aₘ/(1 − x²). The same family is one smooth, decreasing curve through T = 1.566 at x = 0 to the parabolic time 0.662 at x = 1, with no tangent vertical and every time given by exactly one x. Nothing about the orbits differs between the panels; only the label on them does.

The variable that makes Lambert's problem easy

Written in the semi-major axis, the time-of-flight equation has two branches joined by a vertical tangent, and a solver near the join struggles. Written in a variable Lancaster and Blanchard chose in 1969, it is one smooth curve — and every trajectory library now solves it that way.

5 figures · Lambert's problem

The observed sky

Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.

How far the clock drifts from the Sun once leap seconds stop. The accumulated difference between the Earth's rotation and atomic clock time, in seconds, that builds up after leap seconds are abandoned, against years since then, for a day that now exceeds 86,400 SI seconds by −0.3 ms, 0.5 ms, 1.5 ms, each lengthening by 1.7 milliseconds a century as the tides brake the Earth. The drift is the integral of the excess: 20 s after 100 years, a minute after 158 for −0.3 ms; 49 s after 100 years, a minute after 113 for 0.5 ms; 86 s after 100 years, a minute after 76 for 1.5 ms. The present excess is close to zero — the day has recently been slightly shorter than 86,400 seconds — so the drift starts slowly or even backwards, and the tidal term then takes over and bends every curve upward. The time for the difference to reach a minute is set far more by the next century's core-driven fluctuations, which have swung the excess by two or three milliseconds within a few decades before, than by anything that can be predicted.

A clock allowed to leave the Sun

Twenty-seven leap seconds have kept civil time within a second of the Earth's rotation since 1972. By 2035 they will stop, and the clock will be allowed to drift from the Sun. How far it drifts, and how soon a minute accumulates, depends on a length of day that no one can forecast.

6 figures · Timescales The stability of a pulsar clock against atomic clocks, over averaging times from a day to thirty years. Fractional frequency instability, on a logarithmic axis, against averaging time from a day to thirty years. A single millisecond pulsar timed to 300 nanoseconds every 14 days improves as τ^(−3/2) while its white timing noise averages down, and flattens where its slow spin noise, drawn at 10⁻¹⁵ at ten years, takes over. An ensemble of 20 such pulsars is 4.5 times better if their noises are independent. The atomic curves are representative: a hydrogen maser, excellent at hours and drifting at years, and a steered atomic time scale limited near 3·10⁻¹⁶ at long times. In this representative comparison the pulsar ensemble becomes the steadier of the two beyond about 3 years of averaging. At a day a pulsar is a billion times worse than an atomic clock; over decades it is competitive, because nothing inside a neutron star changes on the timescales on which laboratory clocks are rebuilt.

A clock made of neutron stars

The best atomic clocks are rebuilt every decade and averaged every month. A millisecond pulsar has kept its own time for a billion years. Averaged over years, an ensemble of pulsars is as steady as the world's atomic time scale — steady enough to find its errors — but it can never say how fast that time scale runs.

6 figures · Timescales

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

The three terms of the minimum disposal height. The minimum height above the geostationary ring to which a satellite should be raised at the end of its life, by the international guideline ΔH = 235 km + 1000 · Cᵣ · A/m, broken into its three terms, for reflectivity times area-to-mass ratios of 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05 square metres per kilogram. The first 200 km is the protected zone itself; the next 35 km is the most that the Moon, the Sun and the Earth's uneven gravity lower an orbit's perigee over time; the rest is the eccentricity that sunlight raises every year, which a derivation from first principles puts at 942 km per unit of Cᵣ·A/m for an orbit started circular — the guideline's round thousand. Totals: 240 km, 245 km, 255 km, 265 km, 285 km. The term that depends on the satellite is the one sunlight sets, and for a light satellite with large solar arrays it is the largest.

A graveyard height with a term for sunlight

A geostationary satellite at the end of its life is raised about three hundred kilometres and switched off. The height is written as a formula — 235 kilometres plus a thousand times its reflectivity and area-to-mass ratio — and each term is a separate piece of orbital mechanics, the last one sunlight bending the orbit a little every year.

5 figures · Station-keeping Phase-space density during a storm fed from inside. Electron phase-space density at fixed first and second adiabatic invariants, against the drift-shell parameter L, before a two-day storm (grey) and 0.5, 1, 2 days after it begins, from a model of radial diffusion with a diffusion rate rising as L¹⁰ and a loss lifetime of 4 days. The boundary is held fixed and a source centred at L = 4.5, standing for acceleration by whistler-mode chorus waves, acts for the storm's two days; the density grows a peak at L = 4.5, well inside the boundary, and diffusion then spreads it both inward and outward. A peak in phase-space density inside the outer boundary cannot be produced by diffusion from outside while the boundary is rising — diffusion only smooths gradients — so its presence then is the signature of local acceleration, and its absence is consistent with transport.

A peak that says where the electrons were made

The outer radiation belt refills with electrons of millions of electronvolts within hours of a storm. Whether they were carried inward from the edge of the magnetosphere or accelerated where they are found shows in one place only — the density of electrons in the coordinates their motion conserves, which a detector does not measure directly.

7 figures · Radiation belts

Starlight

Distance, brightness and colour: what can be measured when nothing can be visited.

Where the velocity information in a spectrum lies. Above: a 600 km/s stretch of two synthetic spectra with the same continuum of 10000 photons per pixel at a resolving power of 100,000 — a cool, slowly rotating star, with 12 lines per nanometre, and a hot star rotating at 25 km/s, with 3 lines per nanometre. Below: the velocity information each pixel carries, (dA/dv)²/A, which is zero in the continuum and at line centres and largest on the steep flanks of deep, narrow lines. Summed over 100 nanometres of spectrum, the first star measures its velocity to 1.61 m/s and the second to 39.17 m/s — 24 times worse from the same number of photons. The photons that measure a velocity are the ones on the sides of lines; the continuum, however bright, contributes nothing.

The photons on the sides of the lines

A spectrum measures a star's velocity only through the slopes of its absorption lines. The continuum, however bright, carries no information at all, and a star with many deep, narrow lines gives a velocity twenty times more precise than a hot, fast-rotating one from the same number of photons.

6 figures · The Doppler effect Photometric against true redshift for a simulated sample. The redshift fitted from broad-band magnitudes against the true redshift, for 300 simulated galaxies — half old, half young — measured to a signal-to-noise of 10 in their brightest band in six optical bands, and fitted with the same two templates they were made from. 217 fall within 15 per cent in 1 + z of the diagonal, with a scatter of 0.053 in (the fitted z − z)/(1 + z) among them. 83 are catastrophic failures, more than 15 per cent off, and they are not scattered at random: they sit in clumps far from the diagonal, where a galaxy's break was mistaken for the other kind of break. The scatter can be improved by measuring better; the outliers are a different kind of error, and averaging does not remove them.

A redshift that is wrong by three

Most galaxies in the largest surveys will never have a spectrum. Their distances are read from five or six magnitudes, and the reading usually lands close. When it fails it does not fail by a little — a nearby galaxy is placed ten billion years away, because two different breaks in two different spectra fell into the same filter.

6 figures · Magnitudes

Stars

The diagram that sorted them, and the one quantity that decides a star's whole life.

The core's neutrino luminosity against its temperature, and the star's light. The luminosity carried off by neutrinos from pair annihilation in a burning core of 3 solar masses, in erg per second on a logarithmic axis, against the core's temperature in billions of kelvin, along a rough track on which the density rises as the cube of the temperature, with each burning stage marked at its own published temperature, density and core mass. The horizontal line is the star's light, about 1.5 × 10⁵ times the Sun's, nearly constant through all the late stages. The neutrino luminosity rises roughly as the ninth power of the temperature and overtakes the light at about 0.60 billion kelvin — between helium and carbon burning. From carbon burning on, carbon 76, neon 3·10⁴, oxygen 10⁵, silicon 7·10⁵ times the light is lost as neutrinos. The core is no longer cooled by the surface it shines through; it is cooled directly, from inside, by particles that leave without interacting.

The last fuels burn for the neutrinos

A massive star burns hydrogen for millions of years and silicon for about a day. The collapse in duration is not because the late fuels are poorer; it is because, from carbon burning on, the core loses more energy to neutrinos than the whole star gives out as light, and the neutrino losses rise as the ninth power of the temperature.

5 figures · Fusion The abundances the slow neutron-capture process leaves behind. The abundance of each mass number produced by the s-process model at a mean neutron exposure of 0.3 per millibarn, relative to the iron seed, on a logarithmic axis. Dividing σN by the cross section turns the steps into peaks: nuclei at the closed shells capture so reluctantly that material piles up in them. The model's peaks sit at mass numbers 88, 138, 208 — strontium and zirconium, barium, and lead — the three s-process peaks of the solar system's abundances. The peak at barium stands 7 times above the abundances just below it. The abundance pattern of the heavy elements is a record of nuclear structure: the magic numbers of the shell model are written into the composition of every star, by a process that happened in other stars before the Sun formed.

A flow that piles up at the magic numbers

Half the elements heavier than iron were built one neutron at a time, in ageing stars, over thousands of years. The flow of matter up the chart of nuclei settles into a balance in which each nucleus is as abundant as it is reluctant to capture — and it jams at the closed neutron shells, leaving the peaks at strontium, barium and lead that every star's spectrum records.

5 figures · Fusion

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

A velocity error that grows with distance. The uncertainty in one galaxy's peculiar velocity, v = cz − H₀d, against its distance in Mpc/h, when the distance comes from an indicator with a fractional error of 5 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent (type Ia supernovae, 5%; Tully–Fisher, 20%; fundamental plane, 25%). The redshift is exact to a few kilometres a second, so the whole error is the distance error times H₀, and it grows in proportion to the distance. The horizontal line is the rms velocity of a galaxy along one direction in linear theory for the model drawn, 302 km/s. Each galaxy's own velocity is measured to better than its own size only inside 60 Mpc/h for 5 per cent, 15 Mpc/h for 20 per cent, 12 Mpc/h for 25 per cent; beyond that a single velocity is mostly noise, and a velocity survey is useful only as an average over many galaxies.

Velocities that see past the edge of the map

A redshift survey infers the motions of galaxies from the distortions of its own map. A peculiar-velocity survey measures them directly, one galaxy at a time, by subtracting a distance from a redshift — and every one of those measurements is dominated by its own error beyond a few tens of megaparsecs. What makes the survey worth doing is that a velocity answers for structure far larger than the volume it is measured in.

5 figures · Large-scale structure Haloes at the centre of a void, and in an average place. The number of dark matter haloes per unit volume and per factor e in mass, against halo mass in solar masses per h, in the universe on average (dashed) and inside a sphere of 5 Mpc/h radius at the centre of a void whose density there is 20 per cent of the mean (solid), from the excursion-set theory at redshift zero. The void's sphere holds 9.2e+12 solar masses per h of matter altogether, and no halo can be heavier than that. At the dwarf end the void holds 38 per cent of the average abundance per unit volume — more than its 20 per cent share of the matter. At the mass of the Milky Way's halo, 10¹² M☉/h, it holds 1.62 per cent. An emptiness of galaxies like the Milky Way is guaranteed by the theory; an emptiness of dwarfs is not.

A void is not short of dwarf haloes

The centre of a large void holds a fifth of the average density of matter and almost no galaxies, and it is natural to read the two facts as one. They are not. The theory of how haloes form says a void turns its matter into dwarf-sized haloes at least as readily as anywhere else — it is short of big haloes, not small ones — so a void empty of dwarf galaxies is a statement about which haloes were allowed to light up.

5 figures · Large-scale structure Every curvature has a Hubble constant that leaves the peaks where they are. The Hubble constant a universe needs in order to put the acoustic peaks of the microwave background at the measured angle, against its spatial curvature Ωₖ, with the physical densities of baryons, matter and radiation held at their fitted values so that the sound horizon is unchanged. Along this line the angle θ* — the sound horizon over the distance to last scattering — is exactly constant and the peak positions do not move. The flat member has H₀ = 67.4 km/s/Mpc; a closed universe with Ωₖ = −0.044 needs 53.5, with a matter density of 0.50; an open one with Ωₖ = +0.010 reaches the locally measured 73. The peaks alone therefore measure a combination of curvature and expansion rate, not either one, and the statement that the universe is flat to a few parts in a thousand needs a second distance measured somewhere else.

A flatness that needs a second distance

The universe is said to be flat to two parts in a thousand, and the figure is usually credited to the microwave background. On its own the background measures one angle, and one angle fixes one distance — so every curvature has a Hubble constant that reproduces the peaks exactly. Flatness is where that line crosses a second measurement, and it is only as good as the crossing.

5 figures · Density parameters

Orbits

Kepler's three laws, and the family of curves a single force allows.

One history of mass loss, three orbits, three outcomes. The eccentricity of three planets' orbits against the fraction of the star's mass lost so far, as the star sheds 45 per cent of its mass in 6 equal pulses at irregular intervals. Each planet starts with e = 0.05. The pulses are the same events in the star's own time, and the planets differ only in their periods, so each pulse lasts 3, 0.3, 0.03 orbital periods respectively. For the innermost planet, to which every pulse is slow, the eccentricity ends at 0.050: the orbit swells and keeps its shape. For the outermost, to which every pulse is sudden, each pulse kicks the eccentricity by an amount set by where the planet happened to be, and it ends at 0.298. The middle planet ends at 0.090. The same total loss leaves three different shapes, and only one of them is predicted by either limit alone.

The size forgets how the mass was lost, and the shape does not

A dying star loses half its mass, and a planet round it keeps its orbit's shape if the loss is slow and has it scrambled if the loss is sudden. Real stars lose mass in pulses — each one sudden or slow depending on the planet — and what survives a train of pulses is neither answer: the orbit's size settles to the slow value quickly, while its eccentricity random-walks and keeps a record of the history.

5 figures · Effective potential How much of a population is driven how close. The fraction of an isotropic population of inner orbits whose Kozai–Lidov cycling brings 1 − e below a given value within 150 secular timescales, against that value, both logarithmic, for octupole strengths ε = 0, 0.01, 0.03; each curve is 128 integrated orbits with random pericentres and nodes. The thin line is the quadrupole closed form, √((3/5)(1 − (1 − q)²)), which the ε = 0 population follows. At 1 − e = 0.01 the fractions are 9.4, 20.3, 40.6 per cent; at 0.001, 3.1, 18.0, 38.3. The octupole matters most where the quadrupole is weakest — at the extreme closeness a planet needs to be captured by tides, or a pair of compact objects needs to merge — because it adds orbits whose quadrupole cycle stopped far short of it.

Eleven in a hundred by geometry, and the rest by waiting

A distant companion drives an inner orbit through cycles of eccentricity, and whether a given system reaches a dangerously close approach depends on its inclination. Counted over a population with random orientations, the answer at quadrupole order is pure geometry — about eleven per cent reach one per cent of their semi-major axis, all at the same inclination. An eccentric outer orbit multiplies that share, spreads the inclinations, and makes the count depend on how long the systems have been waiting.

5 figures · Kozai–Lidov The same tilt, and ice ages of two different lengths. Top: the obliquity anomaly in degrees from the five largest terms of the standard series, over 2 million years of model time; it is dominated by the 41,000-year cycle and has no power at all near 100,000 years. Bottom: ice volume in a threshold model driven by it — the ice grows steadily, and it collapses whenever volume plus a multiple of the obliquity anomaly crosses a threshold, marked by dots. For the first 1 million years the threshold is low and the ice collapses at nearly every obliquity maximum, on average every 43 thousand years. At the vertical line the threshold is raised, and nothing else changes: the ice now survives one or two obliquity maxima and collapses at the second or third, every 108 thousand years on average. The forcing is identical on both sides; the ice sheet counts it differently.

An ice sheet that skips a beat of the tilt

The last eight hundred thousand years of ice ages come roughly every hundred thousand years, and the Earth's orbit has no forcing of any strength at that period. A model in which an ice sheet collapses only when it is both large and warmed by a high-obliquity summer reproduces the rhythm with nothing but the forty-one-thousand-year tilt — the ice sheet grows through one or two maxima and falls on the next — and a slow rise in how large the ice must grow turns the older forty-one-thousand-year world into the newer one without any change in the orbit.

5 figures · Orbital averages

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