The collection

Every essay — page 33

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 641–660 of 909.

The observed sky

Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.

A lucky frame stays lucky further from the star when the high air was quiet. The mean Strehl ratio of short exposures of a target at a separation from an on-axis reference star, against the shift of the high turbulent layer between the two lines of sight in units of the aperture, s = θh/D — 0.50 of an aperture is 32 arcseconds for a 2.5-metre telescope and a layer at 8 km. The atmosphere has 50 per cent of its turbulence at the ground and the rest high, with D/r₀ = 7, and 1600 simulated frames. Frames are selected by the reference star's sharpness. When the two layers' strengths vary from frame to frame (log-normal, width 0.6), the best 2 per cent start at a mean Strehl of 0.523 and keep 0.339 at the largest separation; when the strengths are steady, the best frames start at 0.321 and fall to 0.105. In the first case the Strehl never falls to six-tenths of its on-axis value within the range drawn; in the second it does so at s = 0.208, 13 arcseconds. Selecting frames by one star selects, preferentially, the moments when the high layer was weak — and a weak high layer is weak for every star in the field.

Luck that reaches as far as the quiet air

Lucky imaging keeps the rare short exposures in which a reference star happens to be sharp, and a sharp star says the air was flat along one line of sight. A target a few arcseconds away looks through different air. It turns out to be sharper in those frames than the geometry of a single turbulent layer allows, because choosing a lucky instant chooses, preferentially, an instant when the high turbulence was weak — and weakness, unlike the pattern of the turbulence, is shared across the field.

5 figures · Seeing
One setting Sun drawn through a layer of warm air. The apparent shape of the Sun at five moments of its setting, seen from 20 m above the sea through an atmosphere with an inversion — 0.15 K per metre over 40 m starting 30 m up — computed by tracing rays from the observer out through the layer and mapping each apparent elevation back to the point of the solar disc it came from. The true elevation of the Sun's centre is given under each panel; the dotted outline is the Sun as a standard atmosphere would show it at the same moment, where it is above the sea horizon at all. The layer does not merely flatten the disc: it cuts it into two separate strips at some moments, stacks an inverted image above the upright one, and draws a thin neck between them, because each strip of apparent elevation maps to a strip of the true disc through a curve that folds. The shapes have been recorded for centuries — the Etruscan vase, the omega, the flattened stack — and each is a picture of the transfer curve for the air that night.

A sunset's shape is a sounding of the air

A layer of warm air over a cold sea bends the rays of the setting Sun into shapes — a flattened stack, an inverted copy balanced on the upright one, a vase with a thin neck — and every shape is a drawing of one curve: the map from where light appears to come from to where it really came from. Run backwards, the curve is a temperature profile. It can be read, but only for the lowest air, only from a known height, and only up to a trade between how strong the warm layer was and how thick.

5 figures · Refraction
The zenith sky after sunset, with light scattered twice. The brightness of the zenith sky at 550 nm in magnitudes per square arcsecond, brighter upward, against the Sun's depression: light scattered once (dashed), light scattered twice (dash-dot), and their sum (solid), in a spherical atmosphere with US Standard densities, Rayleigh scattering and 300 Dobson units of ozone. The dashed horizontal line is the natural night sky, 21.9 magnitudes per square arcsecond. Once-scattered light reaches it at 9.2°; the sum, dominated beyond about seven degrees by light scattered twice, reaches it at 13.2°, and it falls to a hundredth of the night sky — five magnitudes fainter, about the smallest excess a careful measurement of the sky can detect — at 17.5°, where once-scattered light alone would have reached that level at 11.9°. The second order falls more slowly than the first because it can reach the zenith by two grazing hops — sunlight to the lit air low towards the Sun, and that air to the shadowed air overhead — each of which needs only part of the depression a single hop would. Orders beyond the second are left out, so the solid curve is a lower bound on the sky.

The night is late because the light bounces twice

Light scattered once can reach the zenith only while the Earth's shadow over the observer is still low in the air, and by that reckoning the sky should reach the darkness of night about nine degrees after sunset. It does not until eighteen. The difference is light scattered twice — first by the sunlit air hundreds of kilometres towards the sunset, then again by the shadowed air overhead — and adding it to the calculation moves the end of twilight almost exactly to where observers have always put it.

5 figures · Twilight

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

Each kilometre of aim error, turned into a velocity error. The error in the outgoing velocity per kilometre of error in where a spacecraft passes a moon, in metres per second per kilometre, against the flyby altitude on a logarithmic scale, for the four large moons of Jupiter at an encounter speed of 6 km/s. The flyby turns the velocity through an angle δ with tan(δ/2) = aₕ/b, where b is the aim point's distance from the moon's centre and aₕ = μ/v∞²; missing the aim by a kilometre along b changes δ, and missing it by a kilometre across b rotates the plane of the turn, and both move the outgoing velocity by about 2v∞aₕ/b² per kilometre. At 300 km above Ganymede that is 0.32 m/s per km along and 0.32 across. The closer and more massive the flyby, the more it turns — and the more it amplifies whatever error the approach carried.

A flyby that multiplies its own aiming error

A close flyby of a moon turns a spacecraft's path by ten degrees for nothing, and it turns every error in the aim with it. A kilometre of miss at three hundred kilometres above Ganymede becomes a third of a metre per second of velocity error, and a week later two hundred kilometres of miss at the next moon. A tour of flybys is an amplifier that must be re-zeroed after every pass, and whether a small spacecraft can use one in place of an engine burn depends on how many kilometres it can aim to.

5 figures · Gravity assist
What it costs to follow a turning grapple point. The velocity a chaser must spend each minute to hold station on a grapple point carried round by a flat spin, ω²r × 60 s, against the spin rate in degrees per second, for points 1, 3, 10 m from the spin axis, both axes logarithmic. The dashed line is what holding station 10 m from a target in a 400 km orbit costs in the same units, from the orbital dynamics alone: 2.3 mm/s per minute. At 1° per second, a point 3 m out costs 5 cm/s per minute — 24 times the orbital term; at 5° per second, 1.4 m/s per minute, 595 times. The cost rises as the square of the rate, so a target spinning twice as fast is four times as expensive to follow, and above a few tenths of a degree per second the orbit — the whole subject of the approach up to this point — has become the small correction.

A grapple point that moves faster than the orbit

Every rendezvous problem up to the last few metres is orbital mechanics: two bodies in nearly the same orbit, drifting apart and together under gravity. A derelict satellite tumbling at a few degrees a second changes the problem entirely. Holding station on a point of its surface costs more each minute than a week of orbital station-keeping, the moment to grab it comes and goes in seconds, and a free tumble never repeats — so the orbit becomes a small correction to a problem in rotation.

5 figures · Rendezvous
Heliocentric latitude bought three ways, for the same launch. The highest inclination to the ecliptic a spacecraft can reach, against the hyperbolic excess speed it leaves the Earth with. Launched directly into an inclined orbit at 1 AU (dashed), it pays 2v⊕ sin(i/2) — 15.4° for 8 km/s and 23.2° for 12. Launched on a transfer to Mars whose plane is tilted — the wall across the porkchop plot, where transfers near half a turn are forced steeply out of the plane — it reaches latitude i half-way, for 13.7° at 8 km/s and 21.5° at 12: the same list price, starting from the cost of getting to Mars at all. Launched to Jupiter, it can turn there: a flyby rotates its Jupiter-relative velocity, and the steepest heliocentric orbit a flyby at 6 Jupiter radii can leave it on climbs to 90° for a 12 km/s launch, reaching the 79° of Ulysses's orbit (dotted) from about 10.6 km/s — close to the launch speed that mission actually used. Inclination bought near the Earth costs the Earth's orbital speed; bought at Jupiter it costs Jupiter's, less than half as much, and the flyby pays.

The wall sells inclination at the dearest price

Transfers to Mars that go almost exactly half-way round the Sun are forced into planes tilted steeply out of the ecliptic, which is why they form a wall of expensive dates across every launch chart. A mission that wanted to leave the ecliptic could use the wall on purpose. It would be buying inclination at the Earth's orbital speed — the dearest place to buy it — and the routes that reach the Sun's poles have always gone somewhere slower to make the turn.

5 figures · Launch windows

Starlight

Distance, brightness and colour: what can be measured when nothing can be visited.

A synthetic spectrum fitted with a line list that is missing the weak lines. Four ångströms of a simulated metal-line spectrum near 5000 Å at resolving power 20,000 and a signal-to-noise ratio of 200 (thin, noisy line), and the best-fitting synthesis (heavy line) computed from a line list that omits every line with a central optical depth below 0.15 — 137 of the 160 lines in the ten-ångström window, carrying 32 per cent of its total absorption. The fit adjusts one abundance for all the listed lines, with the continuum held at its true level; it returns an abundance 0.188 dex too high: the missing lines' absorption has nowhere to go but into the parameters the synthesis has. The residuals (below, offset) show the missing lines as dips that no parameter of the synthesis can fill — which is how an incomplete list announces itself at high resolution, and why it does not at low.

The lines a synthesis keeps pay for the ones it lacks

Modern abundance work fits a computed spectrum to a whole stretch of the observed one rather than measuring lines one at a time, and it averages away the errors in each line's laboratory data as it does so. It cannot average away a line that is not in its list. The absorption of the missing lines has to be put somewhere, and the fit puts it into the parameters it has — the abundance of the lines it knows, or the level of the continuum — in a direction set by which of the two it was allowed to move.

5 figures · Line formation
How much light a fixed mass of dust scatters, as its largest grains grow. The scattering cross-section per unit mass of dust, on a logarithmic scale relative to the largest value drawn, against the size of the largest grains in a power-law distribution n(a) ∝ a^−3.5 from 0.005 µm, at wavelengths of 1.25, 2.2, 3.6 µm. With the largest grains at a quarter of a micron — the size the interstellar extinction curve implies — the dust scatters 3.6 µm light 33 times less efficiently than it does once they reach a micron: grains much smaller than the wavelength scatter as the fourth power of their size over the wavelength and are all but invisible. At 3.6 µm the scattering per mass peaks when the largest grains are 3.5 µm, and falls beyond, as the mass moves into grains too large to scatter efficiently per gram. A dense core that glows at 3.6 µm in scattered starlight is therefore a core whose grains have grown to a micron or more.

A glow that weighs the grains reddening cannot see

The interstellar extinction curve reads the sizes of dust grains from how much more they dim blue light than red, and it goes blind at the top end: grains larger than about a micron dim every visible colour alike. Those are the grains that hold most of the mass, and the ones from which planets begin. Dense cloud cores glowing faintly at 3.6 microns in scattered starlight are the first direct sign of them — because only grains grown to a micron or more scatter that light at all.

5 figures · Extinction
Amplitudes measured near the noise, against the amplitudes that were there. A simulated survey of 6000 stars, each with one planet whose true radial-velocity semi-amplitude K is drawn from a population rising towards small amplitudes (dN/d ln K ∝ K^−0.6, from 0.2 to 20 m/s), each measured with an amplitude uncertainty of 0.6 m/s; 1500 are drawn. Across: the true amplitude; up: the amplitude fitted at the planet's period; both logarithmic. The dashed diagonal is a perfect measurement; the horizontal line is the detection threshold, 4 times the uncertainty. Points above it are the detections (filled). Well above the threshold they sit on the diagonal; near it they sit above it — the detections within one unit of the threshold have measured amplitudes 1.33 times their true ones on average — and below it the measured amplitudes stop falling at all, because an amplitude is a length and noise alone gives it about 0.75 m/s.

A prior the survey measures through its own noise

Whether a weak periodic signal is a planet depends on how large planets are expected to be, and the best source for that expectation is the population the surveys themselves have measured. But the population's small end is built from the marginal detections whose reality depends on the prior. Breaking the circle means measuring the population and the planets together, with the noise and the threshold written into the model — and doing it that way changes the answers by factors of two where they matter most.

5 figures · Periodograms

Gravitation

Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

Stars

The diagram that sorted them, and the one quantity that decides a star's whole life.

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

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