Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
The collection

Every essay — page 43

One idea per essay, ordered so that the earlier ones set up the later ones — but nothing here depends on being read in sequence. Essays 841–860 of 909.

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

The ground an eccentric Jupiter sweeps on its way in. The periastron and apoastron of a Jupiter delivered on an eccentric orbit, against its semi-major axis as tides shrink it at fixed angular momentum from 5 au to 0.060 au, both on logarithmic scales. The periastron stays at 0.03 au throughout; the apoastron falls from 10.0 au toward the final circular orbit, a 5.3-day hot Jupiter. Every radius between the two curves is crossed twice an orbit for the whole of the delivery. The shaded strip below the dashed line is where a small companion would have to orbit to be found transiting with the hot Jupiter — periods under 50 days, inside 0.27 au — and the migrator's orbit covers it until the semi-major axis has fallen to 0.15 au, after which the periastron alone keeps passing through its inner edge. A planet there is scattered out, thrown into the star, or swallowed; none survives a delivery that takes thousands of orbits.

A neighbour an eccentric arrival cannot leave

A hot Jupiter that arrived on an orbit of eccentricity near one swept every distance between its closest and farthest point, thousands of times, while tides shrank its orbit — and anything small in that range was scattered, swallowed or thrown into the star. A hot Jupiter carried in by the disc can keep its neighbours. So a hot Jupiter with a close companion came through the disc, and the share of them that have one puts a floor under how many did — a floor whose height is set less by the count than by three chances nobody has measured.

6 figures · Planet migration

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

How a cloud's glow loses its polarisation as it thickens. The polarisation fraction of dust emission against the column density through a cloud, both on logarithmic scales, for four clouds built from cells of 10²¹ hydrogen atoms per square centimetre, each polarising its glow by 20%. A single uniform field with every grain aligned keeps 20% at every column. A field tangled from cell to cell by 40 degrees about a mean direction loses polarisation at first and then levels off at 7.5%, the share its mean direction carries: between 10²² and 10²³ its slope is −0.05. A field with no mean direction at all adds its cells as a pure random walk and falls with a slope of −0.55. Grains that align only in the outer 3 × 10²¹ cm⁻² on each side, where starlight still reaches, contribute nothing from the interior, and the fraction falls with a slope of −1.00.

A falling polarisation and the angle that says why

The glow of dust in a molecular cloud is less polarised the thicker the cloud, almost everywhere it has been measured. Two explanations fit that fall equally well — a magnetic field tangled along the line of sight, or grains in the dark interior that have stopped lining up with it — and between them they can produce any slope a cloud has shown. What separates them is not how much polarisation is lost but whether the direction of what remains wanders.

6 figures · Dust polarisation Molecules take longer to form than a cloud takes to fall. Three timescales for a shielded cloud of 100 hydrogen atoms per cubic centimetre, against its metallicity relative to the Sun's on a logarithmic scale, all in years on a logarithmic scale. Molecular hydrogen forms on dust grains, and the time to turn the cloud's atoms into molecules is inversely proportional to the dust, so to the metallicity: 5.3 million years at solar, 53 million years at a tenth, 530 million years at a hundredth. The cloud's free-fall time, 4.3 million years, does not depend on its metals. The two cross near solar metallicity: above it the molecules form as fast as the cloud can collapse, below it the cloud collapses before most of its hydrogen has become molecular. The dashed line is a galaxy's molecular depletion time, two billion years — the timescale that equilibrium arguments implicitly assume is short compared with everything else.

A molecule that forms too slowly to wait for

The atomic hydrogen in a galaxy's disc turns molecular wherever a cloud is thick enough to shield itself from starlight, and stars form where it does. That is an equilibrium statement, and equilibrium takes time. Molecular hydrogen forms on dust grains, so in gas with a tenth of the Sun's metals it forms ten times more slowly — slowly enough that a cloud can finish collapsing before most of its hydrogen has become molecular, and form its stars from atoms.

6 figures · Interstellar medium

Gravitation

Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.

Which populations can share a cluster's temperature. The share of a cluster's mass in a heavy population against the mass of its members relative to an average star of 0.5 solar masses, both on logarithmic scales, with Spitzer's limit: a heavy component can reach energy equipartition with the stars only below the line where its share of the mass times its members' mass ratio to the power three halves equals 0.16. Above it the heavy bodies sink, cannot slow down enough to match the stars' kinetic temperature, and decouple into a subsystem of their own. Stellar black holes, 10 solar masses and about 2% of the mass, sit at 1.8 — 11 times beyond the limit. Neutron stars sit at 0.05 and massive white dwarfs at 0.14, below it; binaries, at a tenth of the mass, sit at 0.28, just beyond it, which is part of why they gather toward the centre. Only the black holes are beyond it by an order of magnitude.

A population that cannot share the cluster's temperature

Encounters between stars push a cluster toward equal kinetic energies, so heavy bodies slow down and sink. Spitzer showed in 1969 that past a certain point they cannot slow down enough: the heavy population falls away from the rest and becomes a cluster of its own. Stellar black holes are past that point by a factor of ten, in every globular cluster that kept them — and the subsystem they form, not the stars' binaries, is what holds most clusters' cores open until the black holes have been spent.

6 figures · Binary heating Precession cycles grow as the inverse of the lowest frequency heard. The number of times the orbital plane precesses between a detector's lowest frequency and the last stable orbit, against that lowest frequency, both on logarithmic scales, for pairs of 36 + 29 solar masses, 10 + 8 solar masses, 8 + 1.4 solar masses with spins tilted into the orbital plane. The count grows as the inverse of the lowest frequency — the slopes are −1.07, −1.02, −1.01. Above 20 Hz, the limit of the ground-based detectors that have heard every merger so far, the heaviest pair precesses 0.9 times, the middle 4.4 and the lightest 6.2. Above 5 Hz the counts are 4.9, 18.7, 25.5; above 1 Hz, 26, 95, 129.

Precessions bought one hertz at a time

A merging pair of black holes whose spins are tilted makes its orbital plane wobble, and the wobble is the only part of the signal that separates one hole's spin from the other's. How many wobbles a detector records is a simple formula: two plus three halves of the mass ratio, divided by the total mass and by the lowest frequency the detector can hear. The detectors that have heard every merger so far stop at twenty hertz, where a typical heavy pair wobbles less than once.

6 figures · Black hole spin

Orbits

Kepler's three laws, and the family of curves a single force allows.

A tilt that wanders up, one passing body at a time. The inclination of the Moon's orbit to the plane it started in, against the number of lunar-mass bodies that have passed the Earth–Moon pair at 5 km/s within 300 Earth radii, with the Moon at 30 Earth radii, for four different sequences of passages. Each passage tilts the orbit by a fraction of a degree in a random direction, so the inclination performs a random walk and grows as the square root of the number of passages: after 1,000 the four runs stand at 3.8, 1.8, 3.9, 0.2 degrees. The dashed line is the Moon's present inclination, 5.145 degrees. Whether a given history reaches it is a matter of chance; how far a typical one gets is set by the passages' number, mass and speed.

A tilt built from a thousand near misses

The Moon's orbit is tilted five degrees to the ecliptic, and slow tidal recession cannot have done it. One candidate is the leftover debris of planet formation: bodies the size of the Moon, passing the young Earth–Moon pair, each giving its orbit a kick of a fifth of a degree in a random direction. A random walk of a few thousand such kicks reaches five degrees — and the bodies that would supply them are the same population whose impacts left the Earth's mantle its gold.

6 figures · Angular momentum Craters forming on Mars now, against the rate the clock assumes. The rate at which craters larger than a given diameter form on Mars, per square kilometre per year, against that diameter, both on logarithmic scales. The black curve is the production function scaled from the Moon, the rate every crater-count age on Mars assumes. The red curve and its points are the craters found forming between successive orbital images — 248 above 3.9 metres over the survey's coverage, 1.65 × 10⁻⁶ per square kilometre per year, with a cumulative slope of −2.2, shallower than the scaled function's −3. At 4 metres the scaled function predicts 6.4 times what is seen; the two cross near 42 metres; above that the survey has found too few craters to say. Bars are the counts' Poisson errors.

A clock checked by the craters it is making now

Every young age on Mars is a crater count divided by a rate borrowed from the Moon. Since 2006 the orbiting cameras have been watching that rate happen: hundreds of fresh craters, metres across, that were not there in the previous image. They form several times less often than the borrowed rate predicts at the smallest sizes, and more often than it at a few tens of metres — and the youngest surfaces on Mars are dated from exactly the sizes where the two disagree most.

6 figures · Surface chronology

The observed sky

Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.

A glow that switches off when the shadow climbs past the shell. The brightness that 100,000 objects in orbit add to the zenith sky, as a share of a natural moonless sky of 22 magnitudes per square arcsecond, against how far the Sun is below the horizon, for shells at 550 and 1200 km. Each object reflects sunlight with an effective area of 0.5 square metres; together they spread a glow whose brightness does not depend on the shell's distance, because more objects are in each patch of sky the further away the shell is. At the end of astronomical twilight the two shells add 3.0% and 2.5%. The lower shell's zenith goes dark when the Earth's shadow passes it, at 23 degrees of depression; the higher one at 33.

A glow counted in square metres of sunlit metal

Satellites too faint to see one at a time still reflect sunlight, and spread across the sky they add a glow that no mask removes. Its brightness does not depend on how far away the satellites are, only on how much sunlit area is in orbit and whether the Earth's shadow has reached it. A hundred thousand satellites as bright as today's add a few per cent to the darkest sky — and the estimate that the sky is already a tenth brighter rests on an area of debris nobody has measured.

6 figures · Twilight

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

Where to stage, if the first stage is coming home. The payload a two-stage rocket puts into low orbit, as a share of its lift-off mass, against how much of the 9.4 km/s it needs is supplied by the first stage, with exhaust speeds of 3 and 3.4 km/s and structural fractions of 0.05 and 0.06. Thrown away, the first stage is best asked for 4.1 km/s and the rocket carries 3.5%. Landed downrange — 0.02 more of its mass in legs and fins, and propellant kept for an entry and a landing burn — the best split moves down to 3.1 km/s and the payload falls to 3.0%. Flown back to the launch site, which first cancels the stage's downrange speed, it moves to 2.5 km/s and 2.7%. A recoverable first stage is asked to do less, and the upper stage does the rest.

A booster that flies home pays with the stage above it

A first stage that lands carries legs, fins and the propellant to bring itself back, all of which the rocket equation charges at the exponential rate it charges everything else. Recovered from a rocket designed to be thrown away, it costs a fifth of the payload. Recovered from a rocket designed around it, the toll falls by a third — because the best place to separate a stage that is coming home is earlier and slower, and the stage above it does the rest.

6 figures · Rocket equation

The observed sky

Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.

Two exponents a solar cycle cannot pull apart. The exponents of a fit of an unmagnetised planet's ion loss to the ultraviolet (horizontal) and to the solar wind's pressure (vertical), shown as the region each fit allows at two standard deviations around a true pair of (0.5, 0.5), from 200 independent samples with a scatter of 0.2 decades, over a cycle in which the ultraviolet varies by 0.12 decades and the pressure by 0.25, for correlations of 0.3, 0.7, 0.9 between the two. The marked corners are the two pure limits: a loss set by the ions the ultraviolet makes, (1, 0), and one set by the wind's power, (0, 1). With weak correlation the two exponents are each known to ±0.25 and ±0.12; at a correlation of 0.9 the ultraviolet's is uncertain by ±0.54, and the ellipse stretches along the line on which raising one exponent and lowering the other leaves the fit unchanged.

Two exponents a solar cycle cannot pull apart

Whether a magnetic field protected the early Earth's air depends on what limits the escape of ions from a planet without one — the ultraviolet that makes them or the solar wind that carries them off. Measured at Mars through a solar cycle, the two causes rise and fall together, and the fit that tries to separate them leaves each exponent uncertain by half its value. Remarkably, the young Sun's loss is predicted well anyway. What spoils the prediction is not the confusion but a switch between the two limits that the present-day data cannot see coming.

6 figures · Magnetosphere

Spaceflight

Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.

Where on the orbit the turning is done, and where the shadow falls. How effectively out-of-plane thrust turns a circular orbit's plane at each point round the orbit, measured from the ascending node: it goes as the absolute value of the cosine of that angle, greatest at the two nodes and zero halfway between them. The shaded bands are the Earth's shadow on an orbit 6,378 km up with the Sun in the orbit's plane, 60 degrees of the circle, placed once over a node and once between the nodes. Over the node the shadow switches the engine off where it would have done the most turning, and the orbit loses 25% of its turning; between the nodes it switches the engine off where it was doing little, and the loss is 7%.

A turn that costs more when the shadow sits on the node

An electric spacecraft turning its orbit's plane does most of the turning near the two nodes, where a push out of the plane tilts it most. Its engine runs on sunlight and stops in the Earth's shadow, and the shadow covers a sixth of the orbit wherever it happens to fall. When it falls on a node it removes a quarter of each orbit's turning, and a law that concentrates its thrust at the nodes loses half. The node drifts one way and the Sun the other, so the shadow slides across the nodes over weeks — and a transfer's length depends on the day it starts.

6 figures · Plane change

Starlight

Distance, brightness and colour: what can be measured when nothing can be visited.

A disc that bends up into a halo only the telescope made. The surface brightness of a face-on exponential disc against radius in units of its scale length, in magnitudes per square arcsecond with the centre at 20, as it is (black, a straight line) and as a telescope sees it if 2% or 5% of each point's light is spread into faint wings falling as the inverse square of distance out to ten arcminutes. Scattered light from the bright centre lands in the outskirts, and once the disc has faded below it the profile stops falling and bends up into a shallow component that looks like a stellar halo: the observed profile rises three-quarters of a magnitude above the disc beyond 10.3 and 9.3 scale lengths, near 29.2 magnitudes per square arcsecond. At ten scale lengths the disc itself is at 30.9 and the image at 30.2 and 29.6.

A halo the telescope paints on every galaxy

A telescope puts almost all of a star's light into a dot and a few per cent of it into faint wings that reach arcminutes away. Around a galaxy those wings add up. The scattered light from the bright centre lands in the outskirts, and below about twenty-nine magnitudes per square arcsecond it outshines the galaxy's own — bending the profile up into a halo, or an edge-on disc out into a thick one, at the same depth around every galaxy whatever its size.

6 figures · Photometric systems What a hundred kelvin moves, for a star like the Sun. The change in eight quantities derived for a Sun-like star and its planet when every temperature is raised by 100 K — 1.7% — as the uncertainty in the absolute temperature scale allows, against the precision each is quoted to (grey bars). The star's radius from its flux and parallax falls by 3.4%, because radius goes as the inverse square of temperature; the planet's radius follows, and its density rises by +12.8%. The oscillation-based mass rises by +2.6%, the main-sequence mass by +3.5% and the age falls by 9.8%. The iron abundance read from neutral iron lines rises by 0.08 dex, +20.7%. In every case the shift is comparable to or larger than the precision quoted, and in every case it moves all stars of a sample together.

A hundred kelvin under every radius

The temperatures of cool stars are quoted to tens of kelvin, and the scale they are all measured on is uncertain by about a hundred. That hundred is under almost everything else: a star's radius moves by twice its fractional error, a transiting planet's density by six times, a main-sequence age by ten per cent and an iron abundance by a fifth. And because a scale error moves every star of a sample the same way, no amount of averaging removes it.

6 figures · Stellar colour

Stars

The diagram that sorted them, and the one quantity that decides a star's whole life.

An association that has been flying apart for ten million years. The velocity of each of 220 stars along one direction against its position along the same direction, for a model association whose stars were born 10 million years ago inside a region 1 pc across (one standard deviation), with random velocities of 1 km/s, and that began coasting apart at once. The fast stars have gone furthest, so position and velocity are correlated, and the slope of the line through them is the inverse of the time they have been moving: the fit gives 10.1 million years. A star at 10 pc moving at 1 km/s has been travelling for ten million years — which is what an expansion age is. Measuring it needs the stars' distances and their motions across the sky, both of which space astrometry now supplies for associations within a few hundred parsecs.

An expansion clock read from the stars' motions

The masses of a young cluster's brown dwarfs are read from their brightness, and a brown dwarf's brightness is a mass multiplied by an age. The age can now be measured without any model of a star: the cluster is flying apart, and the time since it began is its size divided by its speed. But the expansion clock counts only the coasting, not the stars' lives, and it runs fast when the stars began spread out — two biases of opposite sign, and nothing in the motions themselves to say which one wins.

6 figures · Initial mass function Ridges that bend where the model's surface is wrong. An échelle diagram of a Sun-like star's oscillation frequencies — each mode's frequency against its remainder after dividing by the large separation of 135.1 µHz — for radial, dipole and quadrupole modes (red, green, blue), as a one-dimensional model predicts them (open) and as the star produces them (filled), if the model's outer layers are wrong in the way the Sun's models are. Low in the diagram the two coincide. With increasing frequency the star's modes fall behind the model's, by an amount that grows steeply and is the same for every degree, so all three ridges bend to the left together: by 19.3 µHz at 4104 µHz. The bend is the surface effect, and it is larger than the uncertainty of any measured frequency by a factor of a hundred.

A correction that grows as the fifth power of the frequency

Every model of a star gets its outermost layers wrong, because one-dimensional models cannot follow the turbulent convection that fills them. The error shows up in the star's oscillations as an offset that is nothing at low frequency and twenty microhertz at high, two hundred times a frequency's measurement error. It is corrected with a power law nobody can derive, and the correction recovers the star only when its shape happens to be right — which is why the ages of stars are fitted not to their frequencies but to ratios of differences the surface cannot reach.

6 figures · Asteroseismology

Cosmology

One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.

A running the measurement cannot yet tell from zero. The running of the spectral tilt, dnₛ/d ln k, against the tilt itself. The ellipses are the microwave-background measurement, nₛ = 0.9649 ± 0.0042 and a running of −0.0045 ± 0.0067, at one and two standard deviations. The three curves are what slow-roll inflation predicts once the tilt is fixed: a running of −(1 − nₛ)²/β, with β = 2 for the plateaus and every α-attractor (and for φ²), 4/3 for the steepest power law still drawn and 4 for a cubic hilltop. At the measured tilt they give −0.0009 to −0.0003, all within a band thinner than a line at this scale, 11 times smaller than the measurement's error.

A drift in the tilt that is the tilt squared

The primordial spectrum's tilt has been measured to half a per cent. Whether the tilt itself changes with scale has not, and slow-roll inflation says why it will be hard: the running is fixed by the tilt, at about six ten-thousandths, ten times below the present error. The one measurement that reaches far enough along the spectrum to feel it — the μ-distortion of the microwave background's colour — would need a precision no planned instrument has.

7 figures · Inflation A ratio relativity predicts from one density. The ratio EG — written E with a subscript G in the literature — of the lensing around a set of galaxies to their clustering and infall, against redshift. In relativity it is Ωₘ₀/f(z) and depends on nothing else: with Ωₘ₀ = 0.3153, 0.598 today, 0.455 at z = 0.32 and 0.360 at z = 1, falling because f rises towards one as matter comes to dominate. The dashed curves keep light's bending as in relativity and change how hard matter pulls, by −10% and +10% today, growing with the dark energy's share: a weaker pull slows the infall and raises EG. The point is the first measurement, 0.39 ± 0.06 at z = 0.32 from galaxy–galaxy lensing in the Sloan survey.

A ratio in which the galaxies cancel

Matter falls in one gravitational potential and light is bent by the sum of two, and relativity says the two are equal. A survey that measures both the infall of galaxies and the lensing around them can divide one by the other so that the galaxies' bias and the fluctuations' amplitude both cancel — leaving a ratio that relativity predicts from the matter density alone, and that a gravity which bends light differently from the way it pulls matter cannot fake.

7 figures · Dark energy

Exoplanets

Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.

A peak that follows the snow line inwards. Giant planets per star per unit of ln a against orbital distance, for stars of 0.3, 0.6, 1, 1.5 solar masses, if the peak's position scales as the 1 power of the star's mass — snow line, young star's luminosity. The shape is the broken power law measured round Sun-like stars, rising as a⁰·⁸ and falling as a⁻¹, with its height scaled in proportion to the star's mass as the giants' overall rate is. The peaks sit at 0.9 AU, 1.8 AU, 3.0 AU, 4.5 AU: a 0.3-solar-mass star would have its giants piled up 3.3 times closer in than the Sun's. The dots mark each peak.

A peak that should move with the star

Round Sun-like stars, giant planets are commonest at about three astronomical units, close to where water first froze in the disc. If the snow line put them there, the peak should sit closer in round smaller stars — three times closer round a star of a third of the Sun's mass. Every hypothesis agrees about the Sun, which is why the Sun-like stars cannot test them; and one of them makes a Jupiter at the peak wobble its star by the same angle whatever the star's mass.

7 figures · Occurrence rates Where each test can name the host. The plane of a pair's separation and brightness difference, divided by which measurement can say which star a 1000-ppm transit crossed. Above Δm ≈ 4 a sub-Neptune on the companion is diluted below detection and there is nothing to assign. Imaging resolves the pair to the right of an illustrative contrast curve, Δm = 5 log(s/0.04″). The centroid's shift, read against the pair's separation and flux ratio, names the host to the right of s = σ(1 + f)/δ for a precision σ of 30 μas, about 0.05″ for near twins. The density from the transit's shape names it between Δm ≈ 1.1, below which the two stars are too alike, and the detection limit — at any separation, but only for strong transits on nearly circular orbits. The corner of close, nearly equal pairs, under about 0.04″ and 1.1 magnitudes, is reached by none.

A transit that says which star it crossed

When a planet transits one star of an unresolved pair, the catalogue usually assumes the brighter star. The light curve itself can say otherwise, in two ways: the transit's shape measures the density of the star crossed, and a red dwarf is three times denser than the Sun; and the centre of the pair's light moves during the transit, away from whichever star was dimmed. Each test works where the other fails, and between them they leave a corner of close, nearly equal pairs that no measurement of the transit reaches.

6 figures · Detection bias

Galaxies

Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.

An excess the hole cannot afford for long. The mass a 10⁶-solar-mass hole gains from disrupted stars, in units of its own mass, against how long an excess in the disruption rate lasts, for excesses of 30, 100, 300 over the relaxed nucleus's 7.4·10⁻⁵ a year, with half of each Sun-like star accreted. An excess of 100 doubles the hole in 2.7·10⁸ years, an excess of 300 in 9·10⁷. The post-starburst phase that selects the hosts lasts about a billion years, so an excess of a hundred sustained through it would have grown every such hole several times over, and the galaxies that were post-starbursts a few billion years ago would carry holes several times heavier than their stars' motions predict. A binary's spike of 0.1 a year for 3·10⁵ years feeds it only 1.5%.

A flare rate a hole cannot afford for long

Tidal disruption flares are found in galaxies that stopped forming stars within the last billion years far more often than those galaxies' numbers allow — by factors estimated between thirty and two hundred. Each proposed cause can be priced. A dense cluster from the burst would need ten times the hole's mass of new stars inside a parsec; a triaxial nucleus would give twenty times too much; and any excess of a hundred, kept for the length of the phase, would feed a million-solar-mass hole several times its own mass.

6 figures · Tidal disruption

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