Every essay — page 44
Galaxies
Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.
Gravitation
Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.
A constant bounded by the oceans
In 1937 Dirac proposed that the gravitational constant falls as the universe ages. Eleven years later Teller pointed out what that would have done to the Earth: a star's luminosity depends on G to about the seventh power, the Earth's orbit shrinks as G grows, and the sunlight reaching the Earth goes as the ninth power. Run backwards, Dirac's G boils the oceans less than two billion years ago. The rocks were laid down in water, so G cannot have changed that fast — the first bound on a changing constant came from geology.
The tide that holds up the deep ocean
Cold water sinks near the poles and fills the deep ocean, and something has to stir heat back down into it or the whole ocean below the surface would become one cold pool. The stirring costs about two terawatts. The winds supply some of it. The rest comes from the Moon: about a terawatt of the tide's energy is lost not on continental shelves but in the deep ocean, where the tide flowing over ridges and seamounts makes waves on the ocean's internal layers that break far below the surface.
Orbits
Kepler's three laws, and the family of curves a single force allows.
What Jupiter kept of the Sun's siblings
The Sun was born among a few thousand other stars, and while their planets formed they flung out small bodies at a few kilometres a second — exactly the speeds at which Jupiter can capture a passing body. Counted honestly, the birth cluster supplied almost every capture Jupiter has ever made: billions of bodies in thirty million years, against a few million in the four and a half billion since. And billions is still a hundred-thousandth of the Sun's own comets. Whatever the siblings gave the Sun, Jupiter was not how it arrived.
Two clocks in the dust of one collision
A collision between two young planets fills the inner system with dust that shines in the infrared far above anything a steady belt could sustain. The dust carries two clocks. The spherules that condense from the vapour grind themselves away within a few centuries, so a fresh impact flashes and fades on a timescale an astronomer can watch. The fragments last thousands to millions of years, and how long depends on the size of the largest pieces — not on how much was thrown out. The share of young stars that glow counts impacts times fragment size; only the flashes count impacts.
The observed sky
Coordinates, seasons, phases and shadows — geometry seen from inside it.
A midplane that depends on how far it is averaged
The Sun sits a little above the middle of the Galaxy's disc — twenty parsecs, by the most careful recent counts, and anywhere from five to thirty by others. If the disc were flat that scatter would be error. It is not flat: the disc near the Sun ripples vertically by tens of parsecs on kiloparsec wavelengths, and on a rippled disc the Sun's height above 'the' midplane depends on how far around it the midplane is averaged. Every value in the scatter can be a correct answer to a different question.
A Moon measured in banded iron
Layers of iron-rich sediment laid down 2.46 billion years ago in what is now Western Australia keep time with the Earth's precession, and the precession's period says how far away the Moon was: about 321,800 kilometres, with a day of seventeen hours. Together with an older-is-closer point from 1.4 billion years ago, it measures how hard the tides worked between them — about a fifth as hard as today. Held further back, that efficiency brings the Moon out from the Earth a few hundred million years too early, which says the young tides worked harder than the middle-aged ones.
Spaceflight
Celestial mechanics used forwards — where to burn, and what it costs.
A dodge made of air
A small satellite with no thruster can still move along its orbit by turning broadside to the thin air, and the question is whether that is enough to get out of the way of debris. Below six hundred kilometres the answer, measured in distance, is easily yes: a day's warning buys kilometres when a few hundred metres would do. Measured in predictability it is no. The density of the air is forecast to about thirty per cent, so the dodge goes somewhere nobody, including the satellite's own operator, can say in advance to the precision the dodge was meant to achieve.
An orbit lost to a burn that did not fire
A weak stage leaving the Earth splits its departure into several burns at perigee, coasting round a staircase of ever larger ellipses between them. If one burn does not fire, the stage goes round once more. That costs a revolution of time — an hour and a half early in the staircase, more than a day at the top — and a revolution of turning by the Earth's bulge, which comes out at nearly the same angle for every step. The angle is cheap to undo at the slow apogee of a large orbit. The time is not, when the target is the Moon.
Starlight
Distance, brightness and colour: what can be measured when nothing can be visited.
A mean that a few per cent of strays can drag
A lensing survey sorts its galaxies into slices of redshift by their colours, and what its cosmology needs from each slice is a single number, the mean redshift, to two parts in a thousand. A few per cent of the galaxies in a slice are catastrophic outliers — young galaxies at redshift three mistaken for old ones at one — and each moves the mean by its full error. Three per cent of strays two redshift units away move it twenty times more than the survey can tolerate, and finding them needs spectra of exactly the galaxies whose spectra fail.
A diameter smaller than the fringes can see
The surface-brightness method gives distances good to a per cent for binaries of cool giants, and loses that precision for the hot stars that dominate other galaxies' bright binaries. The repair is an empirical calibration from the angular diameters of nearby hot stars — and those diameters are a few tenths of a milliarcsecond, below what the longest optical baselines comfortably resolve. A diameter measured at the edge of resolution is a small departure from perfect fringe contrast, and it costs visibility precision as the square of how small the star is.
Stars
The diagram that sorted them, and the one quantity that decides a star's whole life.
A metallicity term too small to close a gap
Cepheids of the same period are slightly brighter when they are richer in metals, by about a fifth of a magnitude per factor of ten in metal content. The galaxies whose supernovae calibrate the Hubble constant hold Cepheids a little richer than the galaxies whose distances are known geometrically, so the term enters the answer. How much it can move it is simple to compute: a few per cent at most for any plausible error — and the eight per cent separating the local Hubble constant from the early universe's would need the term to be wrong by four times its own size.
A nebula that cannot be beamed at
An X-ray source a hundred times brighter than a neutron star should be allowed to shine may be lying about its luminosity: if its light leaves through a narrow funnel pointed at the Earth, it looks as bright as a source a hundred times more powerful. A single observer cannot tell. The gas around it can. A nebula surrounding the source is lit from every direction at once and records what the source emits in all of them, and a bubble blown by its wind records the power it has put out over a million years. Each is a calorimeter no beam can fool.
Cosmology
One object, seen once, from inside — and every number in it the output of a model.
A flow too quiet for the lumps it runs between
The galaxies within ten megaparsecs of the Milky Way recede almost exactly as the Hubble law says, scattering about it by a few tens of kilometres a second. The matter they move through is lumpy at the factor-of-several level, and elsewhere galaxies move relative to their neighbours at three hundred. The quiet is a measurement, it limits what the group's own pull can be read from, and it says something about the place rather than about the law.
A clock that flickers without a tick
If the universe expands, every process seen at redshift z runs (1+z) times slow. A supernova carries a calibrated clock and shows it. A quasar's light wanders with no period at all, and its characteristic timescale grows with the mass of its black hole and shrinks with the colour it is seen in, both of which change with redshift in any real survey. Reading the dilation from quasars means holding those fixed first, and on a short enough baseline the measurement hides the effect it is looking for.
Exoplanets
Planets nobody has seen, weighed and measured from a dip, a wobble and a delay.
A planet read in the ashes of its star
A white dwarf's gravity drags every heavy element out of its visible surface, so a white dwarf showing magnesium, iron and silicon is swallowing rock now. Its spectrum is the only place where the bulk composition of a rocky body round another star can be read element by element. But each element sinks at its own rate, so the ratio seen depends on when in the meal the spectrum was taken — and only the hottest hydrogen white dwarfs say.
The stars that could catch the Earth in transit
The geometry that lets one Earth twin in two hundred be seen crossing its star works in reverse: the Earth crosses the Sun for observers in a band of sky half a degree wide, under half a per cent of the sky. About two thousand stars within a hundred parsecs sit in it. The band is fixed to the Earth's orbit and the stars are not, so the list changes on the timescale of recorded history — and from no direction can more than three of the eight planets be seen transiting at once.
Galaxies
Where the unknown stops being a number and becomes a profile — and most of it is not light.
A lens counted instead of measured
A foreground mass makes the sources behind it brighter and spreads them over a larger patch of sky. Whether the patch then holds more of them or fewer depends only on how steeply their numbers rise towards faint fluxes, and at one slope the two effects cancel exactly. So a lens can be weighed without measuring a single shape — by counting — and the signal changes sign from bright quasars to faint ones in a way that nothing but lensing can imitate.
A halo weighed by counting its oldest clusters
The globular clusters round a galaxy add up to about four parts in a hundred thousand of the mass of its dark-matter halo — in a dwarf, in the Milky Way, in a giant elliptical and in a cluster of galaxies, across five decades of halo mass. The galaxy's own stars follow no such rule. So a count of a few dozen old star clusters weighs a halo that its stars cannot, and the strangest thing about the rule may be that it is less strange than it looks.
Gravitation
Two bodies pulling on each other, and everything that goes wrong at three.
