Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Ephemeris — where it appears

A table or a computed model giving a body's position as a function of time. Modern planetary ephemerides are fitted to radar and spacecraft tracking and are good to metres, which is why they are an input to a measurement rather than a limitation on one.

Named by 13 essays across 6 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

One admissible root, 0.01% from the truth. Gauss's reduction of three directions to a distance, drawn as the two relations whose intersection it is. Three observations of Ceres on days 0, 20, 40 of an arc, generated from its elements and used only as sight directions — no range, no radial velocity. The rising curve is geometry: the heliocentric distance a candidate at geocentric distance ρ₂ would have, r₂² = ρ₂² + 2ρ₂(R₂·L̂₂) + R₂², which contains no dynamics at all. The falling curve is dynamics: ρ₂ = A + µB/r₂³, with A and B built from the three sight vectors, the three observer positions and the three times, and containing no orbit. Eliminating ρ₂ between them gives r₂⁸ + a r₂⁶ + b r₂³ + c = 0 — an eighth-degree equation, from a problem with exactly as many equations as unknowns. Here they cross once at a positive ρ₂, at r₂ = 2.5893 AU against the true 2.5890. The other 2 real roots are rejected not by fitting but by sign: the ρ₂ each implies is negative, and an object behind the observer was not the thing observed.

Three observations and no orbit at all

Three directions in space give six numbers for the six elements of an orbit, which sounds like a solved problem. The algebra that solves it is of the eighth degree, and for a near-Earth asteroid three perfect observations can be consistent with three different orbits.

orbits · Orbit determination Mars to five metres and Neptune to five thousand kilometres, in the same file. Present-day heliocentric position uncertainty for each planet, in kilometres, with the range component marked separately below it. The two differ because a transponder measures a distance along the line of sight and says nothing about the two directions across it, so a planet with an orbiter is known radially some 17 times better than it is known altogether. Neptune is 10⁶ times less well determined than Mars and only 20 times further away, which is the whole point: the accuracy is a property of the observations, not of the geometry. Mars has carried a transponder almost continuously since 1976; Neptune has been visited once, in 1989, and everything else known about it is meridian-circle astrometry covering 1.07 of one orbit. The two ice giants are the only entries here whose ephemerides are still limited by nineteenth-century technology, and the only cure is a spacecraft.

The table that is a fit

A planetary ephemeris is not evaluated from Kepler's laws and is not evaluated from a theory. It is a numerical integration whose starting conditions were least-squares fitted to a century and a half of observations, and its accuracy is a property of those observations rather than of the mathematics.

orbits · Ephemerides A 28.7 km/s correction, and a 12.5 m/s planet underneath it. Two years of radial velocities of a star at ecliptic latitude 12°, orbited by a companion whose reflex semi-amplitude is 12.5 m/s — the Sun's own, from Jupiter. The upper panel is what the spectrograph measures: the Earth's motion about the barycentre of the solar system, amplitude 28.72 km/s, which is V⊕ cos β to a fraction of a per cent. The planet is in that curve and is 2,297 times smaller than it, which is a line thinner than the stroke it is drawn with. The lower panel is the same data after the correction, and the correction is not a fit: it is computed from an ephemeris, the observatory's position on a rotating deformable Earth, and the star's own coordinates and proper motion. To leave a centimetre a second it has to be right to one part in 2.9·10⁶ — the light-travel time across the Earth's orbit, the relativistic terms, and the fact that the star moves are all inside that budget. What remains is the planet, at 4333 days, and a scatter of 1.2 m/s that is the star rather than the instrument.

The metre per second that is not the star

A line shift is a speedometer, and the speed it reads is mostly the observer's. Getting to a metre a second means removing thirty kilometres of the Earth's own motion to a part in three million, and then confronting a floor that is the star's own surface rather than the instrument.

starlight · The Doppler effect A transit that will not keep time. Transit times of a planet of 8 Earth masses on a 3-day orbit, minus the best straight line through them, from a three-body integration in which the second planet at 4.62 days is the only thing perturbing it. The residual swings by ±1.7 minutes and repeats over 58 days — the super-period 1/|3/P₂ − 2/P₁|, which is long precisely because the pair is near the 3:2 resonance and gets longer the nearer it is. The amplitude is proportional to the perturbing planet's mass, so fitting this curve weighs a planet that may never transit at all. The short jagged component is not noise: it is the chopping signal, one kick per conjunction at the 8.6-day synodic period, sampled once every 3 days by the transits themselves and so barely above the rate at which it can be followed. The integration conserved energy to 1.6e-10.

Planets found by a transit running late

A planet on a fixed orbit transits like a clock. A second planet pulling on it makes the clock run fast and slow by minutes — and fitting that wander weighs a planet that may never cross the star at all.

exoplanets · Transit timing Three passes, and the fourth is below the noise. How far the position is still wrong after each pass of the light-time iteration, for five targets, on a logarithmic scale of kilometres. The first pass uses the body's position now and is wrong by exactly the distance the body travels while its light is in transit — 6254 kilometres for Mars near opposition, which is about twenty-five arcseconds and larger than any residual in an ephemeris fit. Each further pass multiplies the error by the body's speed divided by the speed of light, so the lines are straight and their slopes are that ratio and nothing else. Three passes take every one of these below a metre, which is why the loop in an ephemeris code has a fixed trip count rather than a convergence test. The same argument run backwards is why the correction cannot be applied to the observation instead: the direction light arrived from is what the observation is, and the position it corresponds to is not known until the body's orbit is.

Where a planet is and where it is seen

An ephemeris is fitted to observations, and no observation is of a position. It is of a direction light arrived from, at a time that is not the time the light left, bent by a Sun that is nowhere near the line of sight. Three corrections stand between the two, and all three are larger than the residuals.

orbits · Ephemerides Three causes, three shapes, one residual. An eclipse-timing residual: the observed minus the computed time of each eclipse, against cycle number, in days. Three effects are superposed and each has its own functional form. A slow change in the orbital period — from mass transfer or from magnetic braking — integrates to a parabola. A third body in a wide orbit moves the whole binary towards and away from the observer, so its light-travel time adds a sinusoid at the third body's period. And an eccentric orbit whose apsides are precessing moves the two eclipses in opposite directions, which is a sinusoid that changes sign between primary and secondary minima. The last is why both eclipses have to be timed: a third body moves them together and apsidal motion moves them apart, and a series of primary minima alone cannot tell the two apart at all.

Three causes with three shapes in one curve

The times of eclipse in a binary star are a clock, and the clock runs late and early. Three completely different things make it do so — a third body, a changing period, and a slowly turning orbit — and they are separable only because each imposes a different shape on the residual.

stars · Binary stars An ephemeris fitted to 120 days, 43 minutes wrong within a year against a band of ±5.1. Transit times of a 6 Earth-mass planet on a 10-day orbit, perturbed by a 14 Earth-mass planet at 15.24 days, integrated for 1460 days and compared with a straight-line ephemeris fitted only to the transits in the first 120 days — the shaded window. Inside the window the line fits to 2.1 minutes. Outside it the pair's 317-day super-period carries the transits away from the line, and within a year of the window closing the prediction is 42.8 minutes early of the observed transit, 347 days after the last fitted one. The narrow band is the formal three-sigma uncertainty of the same line for a timing precision of 0.5 minutes per transit, which at that date is ±5.1 minutes: the error is 8.4 times the band. A statistical uncertainty assumes the residuals are noise, and these are a signal, so the band describes a planet that does not exist.

A forecast that fails on a schedule

A transiting planet perturbed near a resonance keeps a clock that wanders, and a straight-line ephemeris fitted to part of the wander predicts the next transit with a confidence the wander does not deserve. The error is not noise and does not average down; it grows on the pair's super-period, it is many times the formal uncertainty within a year, and how soon it appears depends on which stretch of the wander happened to be observed. When a model that includes the known perturber still fails, the failure has a period, and the period is a planet.

exoplanets · Transit timing Io's eclipses, early at opposition and late at conjunction. The delay in the timing of Io's eclipses by Jupiter's shadow caused by the changing distance between the Earth and Jupiter, against days from an opposition, for circular orbits at 1 and 5.2026 AU. At opposition the two planets are closest and the eclipses arrive 8.3 minutes early against the average; 199 days later, near conjunction, they are furthest apart and arrive 8.3 minutes late. The whole swing, 16.6 minutes, is the time light takes to cross the diameter of the Earth's orbit, and the pattern repeats every 399 days, the synodic period. This is transit timing done on a moon in 1676, with a clock that ran on Io's 42.5-hour orbit and a residual that had nothing to do with Io.

A transit late by the width of an orbit

A transiting planet's clock can run fast and slow for a reason that has nothing to do with gravity acting on the planet. If its star is itself in orbit about a distant companion, each transit's light has further or less far to travel, and the timing wanders by the light-travel time across the star's orbit. It is the measurement that first showed light has a speed, made again on a different kind of clock.

exoplanets · Transit timing The astrometry an occultation campaign has to have. How far the shadow lands from where it was predicted, against the angular error in the positions it was predicted from, for a Centaur at 15 AU, a Kuiper belt object at 40 AU, Uranus at 19 AU. The conversion is one line — an angle times a distance — and one milliarcsecond at one astronomical unit is 0.7255 kilometres. The horizontal bands are each body's own shadow width, which is its diameter, and the crossing is the accuracy at which a campaign stops being a lottery: a Centaur needs 23.0 mas, a Kuiper belt object needs 4.1 mas, Uranus needs 3701.0 mas. Before the all-sky astrometric surveys the typical error was tens of milliarcseconds, which is thousands of kilometres at these distances, so events by small bodies were found by accident and not by appointment. The same event then measures the body's position to a few milliarcseconds or better, which improves the ephemeris that predicts the next one.

Each event pays for the prediction of the next

An occultation is predicted from two positions and lands where the arithmetic says. Recording it then measures the occulting body's position to a few milliarcseconds — better than a year of imaging — so the observation that the prediction made possible improves the ephemeris the next prediction comes from.

sky · Occultations A band and a strip, and the constant where they cross. The plane of the two quantities a planetary ephemeris cannot separate: the fractional rate of change of the gravitational constant, vertically, and of the Sun's mass, horizontally, both in units of 10⁻¹⁴ per year. The orbits respond only to their sum, the rate of change of GM☉, so a measurement of that sum — drawn here as −9.0 ± 3.0 × 10⁻¹⁴ per year, the precision recent ephemerides reach, not any one published value — is a diagonal band. On its own it allows any Ġ/G at all, provided the Sun's mass is changing to compensate. The vertical strip is the Sun's mass loss computed from its luminosity and its wind, −9.9 to −8.8 × 10⁻¹⁴ per year. Where the two overlap, Ġ/G lies between −3.2 and 3.9 × 10⁻¹⁴ per year. The bound on a change in a fundamental constant is therefore set as much by how well the solar wind is measured as by how well the planets are.

A constant measured through a Sun that is getting lighter

Whether the gravitational constant changes with time is tested by watching the planets, and the planets report only the product of G with the Sun's mass. The Sun is losing mass — four million tonnes a second as light, a million and a half more as wind — at nearly a ten-trillionth of itself a year, and every bound on a changing G is a statement about the solar wind as much as about gravity.

gravitation · Gravitational constant The heaviest unseen planet Saturn's orbit allows, by distance. The largest mass, in Earth masses, a body at each distance could have without leaving more than 20 metres rms in Saturn's range residuals over a 13-year arc once Saturn's orbit has been refitted, from a single-planet calculation. The three lines are the most favourable direction for detection, the median over the sky, and the least favourable. Every line rises as the cube of the distance, because the tidal field falls as the mass over the distance cubed: the ephemeris measures that ratio and nothing else. At 500 AU the bound is 2.0 Earth masses in the best direction, 5 in the median and 11 in the worst. The shaded box is the range of masses and distances proposed for a planet beyond Neptune: in this calculation some of its directions are excluded and some are not. The real analyses fit every planet and every data type together and reach tighter limits; what they share with this one is the cube and the dependence on direction.

A distant planet felt only as a stretch

An undiscovered planet far beyond Neptune pulls the Sun and Saturn almost equally, and an ephemeris, which measures only where Saturn is relative to the Sun, cannot see a pull that moves both together. What it can see is the difference — a tidal stretch falling as the mass over the cube of the distance — and most even of that is absorbed by refitting Saturn's orbit. What is left decides which planets the solar system can be hiding.

orbits · Ephemerides The Moon pushed towards the Sun, once a month. The change in the Earth–Moon distance, in millimetres, if the Earth's gravitational self-energy fell towards the Sun differently from the rest of its mass by a fraction η = 0.001 — the term that would be present at the synodic period, the cycle of lunar phases, in an integration of the Moon's orbit in the Sun's full field. The amplitude is 11.4 mm, which is 11.4 metres times η: the Moon's orbit would be stretched towards the Sun at new moon and squeezed at full, or the reverse, depending on the sign. The shaded band is ±2 mm, roughly the precision of a modern lunar laser ranging normal point. A violation a thousandth of the size of the effect it tests would be twice that precision.

A Moon that would lean towards the Sun

Part of the Earth's mass is its own gravitational binding energy — a few parts in ten billion. If that part fell towards the Sun even slightly differently from the rest, the Earth and the Moon would fall at different rates and the Moon's orbit would be pushed sunward once a month by about eleven metres for every unit of the difference. Fifty years of laser ranging to the Moon have looked for that push at the millimetre level, against a term the Sun's ordinary gravity puts at the same frequency a hundred kilometres high.

orbits · Ephemerides Errors the identity sees and errors it cannot. Propagations of an ellipse of eccentricity 0.6 through 0.37 of a period, spoiled four ways at sizes from 10⁻¹³ to a hundredth, plotted by their true relative position error across and by how far their coefficients miss f ġ − ḟ g = 1 up (both logarithmic; the bottom row is a miss below the arithmetic's resolution). A solve stopped early and coefficients jostled at random break the identity in proportion to the damage. A wrong time step and a wrong gravitational parameter do not break it at all, at any size — errors up to 0.009 of the position sit on the floor — because each produces an exact Kepler map, for a different question. One equation on four numbers leaves three directions unchecked, and two of them are the two inputs every propagation depends on.

A check that cannot see the clock

The four Lagrange coefficients that carry an orbit's state forward satisfy one identity exactly, and a propagation that breaks it is wrong by about as much as it breaks it. But one equation on four numbers leaves three directions unchecked, and two of them are the inputs every propagation depends on: the time and the strength of gravity. A state carried forward for the wrong time, or under the wrong gravitational parameter, satisfies the identity perfectly — and a solver can be written so that its own errors take exactly that form.

orbits · Universal variables

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

DegeneracyLunar laser rangingA post-fit residualSuper-periodSystematic errorTransit timing variationEclipse timingGravitational parameterLagrange coefficientsLeast-squares fitLight-travel timeN-body integration

All concepts