Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Selection bias — where it appears

A distortion in a sample that arises because the way its members were chosen depends on the quantity being studied. It survives any correction applied star by star, because it is a property of the sample, and is removed only by modelling the selection itself.

Named by 2 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The black holes that can be weighed are the heavy ones. 4000 synthetic galaxies spread evenly through a sphere of 120 megaparsecs, with black-hole masses scattered by 0.45 dex about an M–σ relation of slope 4.24 (faint points), and the 511 whose spheres of influence exceed 0.1 arcseconds (filled), which are the ones a dynamical measurement can resolve. At a given dispersion a heavier black hole has a larger sphere and is resolvable further away, in a larger volume, so the resolved sample is dominated by holes above the relation. Fitted to the resolved galaxies alone, the relation comes out with normalisation 8.74 and slope 2.95 (dashed), against 8.11 and 4.20 for all of them (solid) — 0.63 dex too high at 200 km/s, and more at low dispersions.

The black holes that can be weighed are the heavy ones

A black hole's mass is measured from the motions of stars or gas only inside its sphere of influence, the region where its gravity beats the galaxy's, and that region has to be resolved. At a given galaxy, a heavier hole rules a larger sphere and can be weighed further away, in a much larger volume — so the sample of weighed holes is drawn from the top of the distribution, and the relations built from it describe the heavy end of every galaxy rather than the typical one.

galaxies · Galactic nuclei One detection, and every density it could mean. The number density of interstellar objects implied by one detection of a given size in 8 years, against the distance from the Sun inside which a survey could have seen it, for objects arriving at 26.3 km/s, if the survey caught 100 per cent, 10 per cent, 1 per cent of those passing inside that distance. Each estimate is the count divided by the rate of passages per unit density, πq²v∞ with gravitational focusing, times the efficiency. If ʻOumuamua-sized bodies could be seen inside 0.5 AU at 10 per cent efficiency, there are about 0.05 per cubic AU; if inside 2 AU with every one caught, 7.9 × 10^−4. The inferred density is a statement about the survey as much as about the visitors.

A census of visitors is a census of the survey

Three bodies from other stars have passed through the inner solar system in eight years of looking. Turning that count into a number of such bodies per cubic astronomical unit needs the volume in which they could have been seen, and that volume is set by the Sun's gravity, by each body's size and by how many weeks a survey had to catch it — so the first number the census gives is a measurement of the survey.

orbits · Hyperbolic orbits

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Velocity dispersionAbsolute magnitudeAdaptive opticsAngular resolutionDetection efficiencyDynamical massGravitational focusingHyperbolic excess speedHyperbolic orbitImpact parameterInterstellar objectM sigma relation

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