Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Space-weather — where it appears

The state of the Sun's output and of the near-Earth plasma environment, and its effects on spacecraft and on the upper atmosphere. It drives thermospheric density by more than an order of magnitude, and it is monitored rather than predicted.

Named by 3 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A radial wind from a rotating star draws a spiral. The interplanetary field out to 5 astronomical units, drawn as the Archimedean spiral it is. Nothing here rotates: the plasma moves radially outward at 400 kilometres a second and the field is frozen into it, so each parcel remembers the longitude it left from and the pattern winds up while the material does not. The pitch angle is arctan(Ωr/v), which is 47° at one astronomical unit — the radius where the star's rotation has carried the footpoint through one radian in the time the wind takes to arrive. The practical consequence is a matter of hours: a flare's particles follow the field rather than the line of sight, so the ones that reach a given planet left a longitude about 61° to the west of it. A magnetically well-connected flare on the western limb delivers a particle storm and a larger one at disc centre does not, and the difference is this geometry rather than anything about the flare.

The flare that arrives from somewhere else

The solar wind blows radially outward and the Sun rotates, so the field frozen into the wind is wound into a spiral making forty-five degrees to the radius at the Earth. Energetic particles follow the field rather than the line of sight, which is why the flares that deliver particle storms are the ones on the western limb rather than the ones facing the planet.

sky · Stellar winds A density that spans a factor of 25 at 400 kilometres. Thermospheric density against altitude, for three levels of solar activity, with the model's own uncertainty band drawn around the middle curve. The extreme ultraviolet output of the Sun heats the upper atmosphere, so the scale height rises with activity and the density at a fixed altitude rises with it — by a factor of 25 at 400 kilometres between solar minimum and maximum. Superposed on that are a diurnal bulge of about a factor of two, semiannual variations, and geomagnetic storms that raise the density by tens of per cent within hours. The best empirical models reproduce past conditions to about 15 per cent, and orbital lifetime is inversely proportional to density, so a re-entry predicted a year ahead carries that error and the far larger one of not knowing what the Sun will do.

A density model wrong by a factor of two

Everything about a low orbit's future depends on the density of the air at four hundred kilometres, and that density varies by a factor of twenty-five over the solar cycle, by two within a day, and by tens of per cent during a storm nobody predicted. Every model of it is an empirical fit, and re-entry dates are quoted with the honesty that implies.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag Assimilation buys a factor of 3.6 at 2 hours and 1.03 at 14 days. The along-track position error of a low-orbit object against how far ahead the prediction reaches, on logarithmic axes. The upper curve uses a climatological density model, whose error stays at 15 per cent however long it is run — the limitation is the functional form and the proxies driving it rather than a shortage of data. The others assimilate the observed drag on objects already in orbit, which replaces that with an observation error of 3 per cent and then lets the thermosphere forget, with memories of 0.5, 1.5, 4 days. Every curve rises as the square of the time, because an error in a drag acceleration integrates twice into a position. The advantage is a factor of 3.6 at 2 hours and 1.03 at 14 days, so assimilation changes what a conjunction screening can do and changes nothing about a re-entry date — and the dashed line is the kilometre at which a close approach becomes a manoeuvre decision.

A weather forecast made out of orbits

A density model fitted to fifty years of satellite drag is a climatology, and its error does not shrink with more data. Updating it from the drag observed on objects in orbit right now is the manoeuvre a weather forecast makes — and it buys a factor of several for a day and nothing at all for a fortnight.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Empirical modelRe-entry predictionSystematic errorThermospheric densityAlfven radiusAlong-track errorBallistic coefficientConjunction assessmentCorotating interaction regionCosmic raysData assimilationDrag coefficient

All concepts