Astronomy & Celestial Mechanics
the sky, computed
Concept

Ballistic coefficient — where it appears

A vehicle's mass divided by its drag coefficient and frontal area, which sets the altitude at which an entry is decelerated and not how hard. The peak deceleration of an entry contains the entry angle and the atmosphere's scale height and not this quantity at all, which decides only the altitude at which it happens.

Named by 10 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Down by 280 km, and faster by 164 m/s. A circular orbit at 400 km with a ballistic coefficient of 100 kg/m², integrated down to 120 km through a tabulated atmosphere at solar minimum and solar maximum. At solar min it takes 1.2 years; at solar max it takes 147 days — a factor of 2.9 for the same satellite in the same orbit, decided by an eleven-year cycle nobody controls. The rising curves are the orbital speed on the right-hand scale, and they are the point: the drag force is opposite the motion and takes energy out, and the body goes faster, from 7673 to 7836 m/s. There is no contradiction in it. The specific energy is −μ/2a, so removing energy shrinks a, and the circular speed √(μ/a) rises when a falls; the kinetic energy gained is exactly half the potential energy lost, and the other half is what the air took. Every point on every curve was integrated from da/dt = −(ρ/β)√(μa), and the speed at each point is √(μ/a) at that point rather than a separate model.

An orbit that speeds up as it is slowed down

Drag takes energy out of a satellite and the satellite goes faster. There is no paradox in it, only a sign — and the same sign makes a re-entry date a space-weather forecast rather than an orbital computation, which is why Skylab was predicted for 1983 and came down in 1979.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag A corridor 0.78° wide. Peak deceleration against entry flight-path angle, from sixty-one integrated entries at 11 km/s and β = 250 kg/m². The steep edge is where the load reaches 12 g, at 6.05°. The shallow edge is skip-out: below 5.27° the vehicle passes through the upper atmosphere and leaves again at 8.55 km/s, having lost too little speed to be captured. The corridor between them is 0.78° wide, which at an approach speed of 11 km/s is a targeting problem measured in kilometres of periapsis, days out. The curve is steep everywhere, which is the other half of the difficulty: half a degree of aiming error is a factor of 1.46 in the load. Lift is what widens this, and no ballistic capsule has any.

A corridor a degree and a half wide

The peak deceleration of an entering vehicle contains no property of the vehicle at all. Only the speed and the angle of arrival decide how hard it is slowed — the ballistic coefficient decides where, and nothing decides whether.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag A quadratic and a linear, crossing at 149 objects. The two rates that decide whether a shell at 900 km is stable, against how many objects are in it. Production goes as N² — every collision needs two objects, so the number of collisions is proportional to the square of the population, and each one is taken here to make 1600 trackable fragments. Removal goes as N, because drag acts on each object independently and takes 1,195 years to do it at this altitude. A quadratic and a linear cross exactly once, at 149 objects in this shell, and above that crossing the population grows with nothing launched. The shell presently holds about 2,280, which is 15 times the crossing. Every number on the production side is uncertain by a factor of a few — the fragment yield most of all, and the cross-section is calibrated against an observed collision rate rather than measured — so the position of the crossing carries that uncertainty with it. The shape does not, and the shape is the argument: a quadratic overtakes a linear once and never comes back, the crossing falls as the altitude rises because the lifetime is in the denominator, and what results is a threshold rather than a trend.

A collision rate that needs no collision

The flux through an orbital shell is a gas-kinetic calculation with no orbits in it. Production goes as the square of the population and removal goes as the first power, so a quadratic overtakes a linear once and never comes back — and which side of that a shell is on is decided by its altitude.

spaceflight · Orbital debris A density that spans a factor of 25 at 400 kilometres. Thermospheric density against altitude, for three levels of solar activity, with the model's own uncertainty band drawn around the middle curve. The extreme ultraviolet output of the Sun heats the upper atmosphere, so the scale height rises with activity and the density at a fixed altitude rises with it — by a factor of 25 at 400 kilometres between solar minimum and maximum. Superposed on that are a diurnal bulge of about a factor of two, semiannual variations, and geomagnetic storms that raise the density by tens of per cent within hours. The best empirical models reproduce past conditions to about 15 per cent, and orbital lifetime is inversely proportional to density, so a re-entry predicted a year ahead carries that error and the far larger one of not knowing what the Sun will do.

A density model wrong by a factor of two

Everything about a low orbit's future depends on the density of the air at four hundred kilometres, and that density varies by a factor of twenty-five over the solar cycle, by two within a day, and by tens of per cent during a storm nobody predicted. Every model of it is an empirical fit, and re-entry dates are quoted with the honesty that implies.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag 1,236 fragments anybody can see, and 63,397 that can kill. The cumulative fragment size distribution from the standard breakup model, for a catastrophic collision involving 1500 kilograms and for an explosion of the same object, both axes logarithmic. The exponents are −1.71 and −1.60, measured off the drawn curves; they are empirical, fitted to ground tests and to the observed clouds of real events, and they are steep. What follows is the reason a catalogue of tracked objects is not a catalogue of the hazard. Above ten centimetres — the size a ground radar can follow in low orbit — the collision makes about 1,236 pieces. Above one centimetre, which is the size that goes through a spacecraft at ten kilometres a second and cannot be shielded against, it makes 63,397. Above a millimetre, which shielding does stop but which erodes a surface, 3,251,385. The tracked population is under two per cent of the lethal one, and the difference is not a gap in the catalogue that better radars will close — objects of a centimetre at a thousand kilometres are beyond any sensor that has been proposed. An explosion makes fewer large pieces than a collision and a comparable number of small ones, because an explosion divides one object and a collision destroys two.

The fragments nobody can see and cannot shield against

A catastrophic collision in low orbit makes about a thousand pieces big enough to track and sixty thousand big enough to destroy a spacecraft. The catalogue is under two per cent of the hazard, the gap is not one better radars will close, and the fragments' lifetimes span a factor of twenty-five within a single event.

spaceflight · Orbital debris Where the missing kilometres a second go. The two losses along a gravity-turn ascent, against the vehicle's thrust-to-weight ratio at lift-off, from an integration of the trajectory rather than from a table. Every run spends the same 9400 m/s of ideal Δv and every one is flown as the same manoeuvre: one pitch kick, solved by bisection so that the vehicle is horizontal at burnout, and thereafter zero angle of attack so that gravity alone turns it — which makes the steering loss identically zero and the comparison a fair one. What differs is how much of the Δv survives as speed. The gravity loss is ∫g sin γ dt, the part of the thrust spent holding the vehicle up rather than accelerating it, and it falls as the thrust rises because a vehicle that leaves quickly spends less time doing it: 1263 m/s at T/W = 1.15 against 381 at 2.2. The drag loss is ∫(D/m) dt and it rises, because the same haste means reaching high speed lower down where the air is: 119 m/s against 1874. The sum is least at T/W ≈ 1.5, at 1198 m/s, and the minimum is shallow — which is why real vehicles cluster between 1.2 and 1.5 and none of them is there because of this curve. At the marked 1.5 the 9400 m/s of ideal Δv leaves the vehicle at 8202 m/s and 42 km, against a circular speed of 7884 m/s there, so the 1198 m/s of loss is the whole of the answer to why orbit costs about 9.4 km/s when orbital speed is under 7.9.

Orbit costs 7.8 and a launch buys 9.4

The gap between orbital speed and the velocity change a launcher spends is not overhead. It is three integrals along the ascent, only one of which can be reduced by flying better, and the two that can be traded move in opposite directions.

spaceflight · Rocket equation The drag coefficient of a sphere runs from 2.03 to 2.79, and 2.2 is a convention. The free-molecular drag coefficient of a sphere against the accommodation coefficient — the fraction of striking molecules that thermalise with the surface and leave in a cosine distribution rather than bouncing — at speed ratios 2, 4, 8, with the surface at 0.3 times the flow's temperature. Specular reflection gives 2.469 at the lowest speed ratio drawn and 2.001 in the hypersonic limit, where every molecule delivers exactly twice its own momentum. Accommodation adds the re-emitted flux, which leaves at the wall temperature in a direction the flow did not choose, and it adds most where the speed ratio is smallest — which is high up, where the light species dominate. The conventional 2.2 lies outside this family at both ends: at s = 8 a sphere reaches only 2.112 even at full accommodation, and at s = 2 it is already 2.469 with none. That is not a defect of the arithmetic — 2.2 is a fitted average for satellite shapes, whose flat panels have a higher coefficient than a sphere of the same projected area, and the sphere is drawn because it is the one geometry with a closed form. What survives the shape is the dependence: a satellite's drag coefficient is an assumption about its surface chemistry and its attitude, and every density inferred from drag carries it in inverse proportion.

A coefficient that belongs to the surface, not the satellite

Every density ever inferred from satellite drag was divided by a drag coefficient, and that coefficient is not a property of the spacecraft. It is a property of what happens when an oxygen atom at eight kilometres a second strikes a surface it has already coated — and the conventional 2.2 is a convention.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag A corridor 0.2 km wide, and a density known to a factor of 2. The apoapsis a vehicle is left on after a single atmospheric pass, against the periapsis altitude it aimed at, for ballistic coefficients of 60, 130, 300 kg/m² arriving at 3 km/s. The energy removed is the density at periapsis times an effective path length of √(2πrₚH), divided by the ballistic coefficient — so it falls exponentially with altitude and the curve is steep. Hitting a 1000 km apoapsis to ±10 per cent requires a periapsis inside 0.2 kilometres. Getting the atmosphere wrong by a factor of 2 moves the aim point by 7.6 kilometres, which is 30.7 times the corridor's own width — so a ballistic vehicle aiming at a planet whose density is known to a factor of two misses by more than the tolerance allows, and the manoeuvre has to be flown rather than aimed.

A manoeuvre that has never been flown once

Arrive on a hyperbola, dip once through the atmosphere, leave on a bound orbit having spent no propellant. The saving is a kilometre a second or more, the physics is the same as an entry corridor, and nobody has done it — because the corridor is a tenth of a kilometre wide and the density is known to a factor of two.

spaceflight · Atmospheric drag Two satellites moved apart by the attitude they hold. The along-track separation of two identical 5 kg satellites at 475 km, starting together, when one flies broadside to the airflow and the other edge-on for 15 days and then they swap, so that their relative drift ends at zero. The separation grows quadratically and then levels off. At solar minimum the manoeuvre moves the pair 2,797 km apart; mid-cycle 8,299; at solar maximum 24,620 — 206° of the orbit's 43,060 km circumference. No propellant is spent; the same command produces a tenfold different result depending on the state of the Sun.

A rendezvous paid for in air

Two satellites in the same low orbit can be moved along it relative to each other with no propellant at all, by turning one broadside to the thin air and the other edge-on. The draggier one sinks and speeds up, the gap grows as the square of the time, and swapping attitudes halfway brings the drift back to zero. The cost moves from fuel to time, to altitude, and to knowing an atmosphere that changes tenfold with the Sun.

spaceflight · Rendezvous How far a change of attitude moves a satellite before the encounter. The along-track shift a 5-kg satellite achieves by switching from 0.01 to 0.1 m² of frontal area when warned of a conjunction, against the warning time, at 400, 500, 600 km, between solar minimum (lower edge) and maximum (upper edge), logarithmic. The shift grows as the square of the time. In a day it is 26.1 to 156 km at 400 km; 3.9 to 39 km at 500 km; 0.6 to 10 km at 600 km. The dashed line is the 556 m needed to bring a 300-m position uncertainty's collision risk below one in ten thousand.

A dodge made of air

A small satellite with no thruster can still move along its orbit by turning broadside to the thin air, and the question is whether that is enough to get out of the way of debris. Below six hundred kilometres the answer, measured in distance, is easily yes: a day's warning buys kilometres when a few hundred metres would do. Measured in predictability it is no. The density of the air is forecast to about thirty per cent, so the dodge goes somewhere nobody, including the satellite's own operator, can say in advance to the precision the dodge was meant to achieve.

spaceflight · Rendezvous

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Thermospheric densityAtmospheric dragOrbital debrisOrbital lifetimeConjunction assessmentDifferential dragDrag coefficientEntry corridorFlight-path angleKessler syndromeOrbital decayScale height

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